It is reported that Brent crude oil futures rose by more than 4% in the past week, reaching a maximum of US $93.7/barrel, a seven-year high. WTI crude oil futures rose more than 5%, rising for the seventh consecutive week.
Galaxy Securities believes that, on the one hand, from the data of December, OPEC + continues to implement the plan of increasing production by 400000 barrels per day per month, but the actual increase is not as expected; Since January, many smaller oil producing countries have been unable to increase supply, while some other oil producing countries are unwilling to produce too much crude oil to prevent the epidemic from hitting the economy again. On the other hand, the political tension between Russia and Ukraine, combined with the tension in the Middle East caused by the husai armed forces in Yemen, has exacerbated concerns that the already tight crude oil market may be further disturbed. Optimistic about the business layout, the implementation of scale expansion to bring incremental performance of the head enterprises, since the beginning of the year, the adjustment of some targets is relatively large, which is the timing of the layout. Satellite chemistry, Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) are mainly recommended. At the same time, it is suggested to pay attention to the oil service industry in the post oil price cycle.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) pointed out that the current oil price inventory has been lower than the inventory range of the same period in the past five years. The disturbance at the supply side under very low inventory will make the elasticity of oil price more obvious. In addition, Fed chairman Powell said after the first interest rate meeting in 2022 that there is a lot of room for raising interest rates. It does not rule out the possibility that interest rates will be decided at several regular monetary policy meetings in the future. The Fed will accelerate interest rate hikes to support the US dollar in the future, or bring some pressure on oil prices in the medium term. It is suggested to pay attention to: the price of crude oil has reached a new high, the global capital expenditure has warmed up, and the leaders in the oil service industry have fully benefited: China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) ; The rise of oil prices has driven the increase and expansion of chemical products prices, of which private large-scale refining has fully benefited: Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) ; The relevant industrial chain represented by PTA polyester filament is expected to be driven by cost demand: Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) .
