fiscal, monetary and industrial policies may be intensively introduced in the first half of the year
The first main clue in the macro aspect of the year of the tiger is steady growth, and there is still pressure on the macro economy. First, in 2021, we actively promoted the resolution of implicit debt and real estate regulation, and the decline of GDP in the construction industry was a drag on the economy; Second, with the replenishment of manufacturing inventories in major overseas economic systems in place and the withdrawal of policies, the growth rate of Global trade will slow down; Third, under the background that the epidemic is still sporadic in stages and the prevention and control is normalized, there is still a ceiling in the repair of consumption and service industry. It is expected that fiscal, monetary and industrial policies will be intensively introduced in the first half of 2022.
At the same time, another clue that macro par value should be paid attention to is the convergence of overseas liquidity. After the epidemic, the monetary policy of European and American economies was significantly loose; With the gradual improvement of the economy and the formation of inflation constraints, its monetary policy will have a gradual exit process.
The fundamental reason for the simultaneous existence of these two clues is the deviation between China’s economy and overseas economy in this round of macro cycle. China has quickly controlled the epidemic, so there is no overdraft in monetary policy and there is no typical exit process; At the same time, the economic restoration in 2021 has promoted a round of structural adjustment and risk prevention in the field of infrastructure and real estate. This leads to the tightening cycle of overseas monetary policy in 2022 and the expansion cycle of steady growth of China’s monetary policy.
Steady growth leads to the return of value and undervalued assets, and the contraction of global liquidity leads to the adjustment of growth and high valuation. The two macro clues lead to the convergence and more balanced style of a shares. ( Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) chief economist Guo Lei)
long term optimistic about the improvement of the global competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry
Looking forward to the year of the tiger, although there is still great uncertainty about the global epidemic, many countries are exploring the gradual opening-up. At the same time, the easing policy of the Federal Reserve is ebbing, and the global economy is returning to the new “normal”. The keynote of China’s steady growth is highlighted, and new and old drivers may work together to support the recovery of real credit.
In terms of the general trend, we are still optimistic about the year of the tiger. The Fed’s expectation of monetary tightening is strong, but China still maintains a relatively independent, flexible and appropriate monetary policy. On the other hand, the transformation of old and new kinetic energy has experienced several years of transition. The “new kinetic energy” has some ability to hedge the drag of “old kinetic energy” in terms of credit increment. In 2022, new and old drivers will jointly support steady growth. It is believed that the recovery of the credit end will also be implemented soon.
In terms of industry allocation, we have long been optimistic about the improvement of the global competitiveness of China’s manufacturing industry and the future growth opportunities of mass consumer goods under common prosperity. Under the comparison of countries, the integrity of China’s manufacturing industry chain is the highest. After the reshuffle of the past 10 years, a considerable number of manufacturing segments have gradually shown the characteristics of clear industrial pattern, significant leading advantages and improved global competitiveness. These outstanding champion enterprises will move from China to the world in the future. After 10 years of high-speed consumption in China, it is found that there is still a lot of room for the growth of optional capital consumption in the past 10 years. In the future, when we are jointly prosperous and expand the cake of the consumer market, the growth opportunities of mass consumer goods driven by the improvement of marginal consumption propensity of low – and middle-income people deserve more attention. ( Changjiang Securities Company Limited(000783) Research Institute general manager Xu Chun)
5g application is gradually approaching, and the digital economy has taken root
Digital economy is becoming a key force to restructure global factor resources, reshape global economic structure and change global competition pattern.
Looking forward to the year of the tiger, a new wave of science and technology is rising, and the digital economy is taking root. New industrial tracks such as VR / Ar / MR, smart cars, metauniverse and industrial digitization may continue to emerge new opportunities. Overall, the TMT sector will be oversupplied this year, with a significant increase in opportunities compared with last year.
In terms of investment, in addition to paying attention to the continuous promotion of relevant policies, the key is to track the basic landing clues of TMT industry. We are most optimistic about 5g / digital application and domestic industrial chain. Next, there are four important directions at the landing level: first, breakthroughs in core key technologies, such as semiconductor industry chain and software localization. Although the head company has a high valuation, it has broad growth space in the future; Second, new information infrastructure, such as 5g, Gigabit broadband, Satellite Internet and cloud computing, will bring certainty of performance growth through sustained and visible investment; Third, traditional industries are integrated with the application of digital economy, from new infrastructure to new applications. This round of new applications is not only to C, but also to B. the deep integration of science and technology and industry will bring the reconstruction of industrial chain and valuation differentiation of traditional industries; Fourth, network information security and ecology. If the future is the digital era, network information security will be similar to the security industry in the last 10 years. From hardware to software and cloud, it has greater rigid demand and market space.
( China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Wu chaoze, director of Securities Research Institute)
meet a new round of comprehensive optimization of demand structure
In 2022, overseas monetary policy will enter a difficult correction stage, and China’s economy is expected to start a round of comprehensive optimization of demand structure. If the monetary and fiscal policies with abundant potential policy space are properly combined, China is expected to maintain high-quality and stable growth and walk out of a road of “tiger change of great powers” different from other countries.
For the capital market, “bath fire · rebirth” is the keyword of a shares. We previously proposed that this year’s market will show a V-shaped trend. After the obvious correction in the market at the beginning of the year, we are not completely pessimistic about the whole year. Generally speaking, the market will not go up and down, and will not go up and down in a hurry. Consumption and technology are the focus of the selected structure. At the same time, the timing of the cycle is also expected to obtain considerable benefits. It is suggested to pay attention to military industry, new generation Internet technology meta universe related industrial chain (TMT), beauty care and new energy industrial chain; In addition, the real estate industry chain is premised on the improvement of the epidemic situation, the effectiveness of real estate stimulus and the realization of price increases; In terms of cyclical stocks, we can focus on the strategic opportunities of oil, natural gas, chemical raw materials and products and copper.
In terms of global assets, the fluctuation of probability ratio in 2022 is enlarged. There is still opportunity for Chinese bonds in the first half of the year, and there is still room for US bonds to rise in the first half of the year. The fluctuation range is expected to be between 1.5% and 2%, but the narrowing of US bond term spread is more certain. The volatility of US stocks in 2022 was higher than that of last year, and the marginal allocation cost performance fell. The Hong Kong stock market was mainly driven by valuation repair in the first half of the year β The market is worth looking forward to, and the Hong Kong stock market will be profitable and attack α More important. ( Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Research Institute general manager Zhou Haichen)
investment should focus on industrial progress and transformation
Under the background of repeated epidemics and great uncertainty in the global economic recovery, China’s loose macro environment will continue, the narrow liquidity represented by the capital side of the inter-bank money market will be stable and loose, and the broad liquidity represented by social finance and M2 is expected to improve marginally and remain reasonably abundant. Scientific and technological progress and industrial transformation and upgrading are the investment direction we are optimistic about for a long time.
China’s economy has entered a new stage of high-quality growth. In order to achieve high-quality growth, we must base ourselves on the improvement of scientific and technological level, and investment must also focus on industrial progress and industrial transformation.
First, develop specialized Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) and form a number of invisible champions with world competitiveness. There is no shortcut to the R & D and upgrading of core technology and neck technology. We must promote the further agglomeration of resource elements in the direction of scientific and technological innovation, industrial progress and industrial transformation and upgrading through the support of national special funds and capital market financing, so as to form thousands of single champion enterprises and 10000 specialized and special new small giant enterprises.
Second, vigorously develop the digital economy and use digital technology to reshape the existing production process, business and management process. We should build a new business form and mode of digital economy with the most open mind, and accept the most advanced technologies and ideas from the previous communication, semiconductor and computer applications, to the digitization of various industries and the emerging meta universe.
Third, actively layout Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) and focus on the reform of new energy. At present, the biggest Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) is the new energy industry under the dual carbon goal, which involves electrification, low-carbon power generation process, power storage and intelligent transportation. ( Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) Yang Junming, director of Economic Research Institute)
the combination of steady growth policies will produce results in the second quarter
The new year begins again and everything is renewed. Affected by multiple factors, China’s economic growth is under great pressure in 2022. It is expected that the stimulation of supporting factors such as infrastructure, manufacturing investment and consumption will be paid attention to, and the steady growth policy portfolio will continue to increase in the first quarter and produce results in the second quarter.
However, the policy connotation of promoting growth is “similar in shape but different in spirit”. Both the direction and the application of policy tools emphasize the promotion of high-quality development. The broad new energy sector under “carbon neutrality”, the high-end manufacturing industry under “making up for weaknesses and ensuring safety”, and promoting the construction of affordable housing under “common prosperity” are the investment themes of the whole year. At the same time, digital economy has been put forward by China as an economic form after industrial economy. This theme will run through all industries, especially worthy of attention.
In terms of specific industry configuration, we can continue to pay attention to the pan electronic chain, affordable housing chain and central energy enterprises in the short term. The relative income of the pan power chain in the second quarter is expected to be restarted gradually. The range of short-term wide currency is greater than that of wide credit, which drives the market of some growth stocks with new product cycle logic. Pay attention to the dominant smart driving, cloud computing optical communication and metauniverse from the fourth quarter of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022. Under the triple constraints of non speculation in housing and housing, residents’ leverage ratio and tight resource supply, the “wide credit” has selected the leading real estate enterprises of state-owned enterprises, building materials and household appliances related to affordable housing, central energy enterprises and other subdivisions. We believe that the pan power chain dominated by growth cyclical stocks has been adjusted in place, but the relative income needs to be gradually opened again in the second quarter. ( Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) Zhang Guangyao, CO director of the Institute)
blue chip will become the main investment line throughout the year
It is estimated that China’s economic growth rate will be about 5.5% in 2022, and the policy will rebalance between development and security. On the trend, there are more opportunities for A-Shares in the first half of the year and relatively flat in the second half of the year. In terms of funds, the proportion of “long money” in incremental funds will be increased, and the pricing power of institutions will be significantly enhanced. In terms of style, blue chip is the main investment line throughout the year.
It is expected that the steady growth policy in the first half of the year will form a joint force through relay to promote the economy to return to the normal before the epidemic. Macro liquidity is reasonable and abundant, A-Shares are generally good and have more opportunities, which will focus on the following three aspects: 1. Infrastructure and real estate industry chain directly benefiting from counter cyclical policies; 2。 The price rise of raw materials and the easing of supply chain pressure, and the profit recovery of the middle and lower reaches of the manufacturing industry; 3。 The disturbance of the epidemic was further weakened, and the boom of emerging consumer goods and service consumption was repaired.
It is expected that in the second half of the year, the policy will return to normal under the constraints of internal and external factors, and the macro liquidity will return from reasonable abundance to steady neutrality. It is suggested to focus on relatively prosperous sectors. The adjustment of policy focus suppresses market liquidity expectations, while under the pressure of high base, the profit of non-financial sector may increase negatively, and the overall performance of A-Shares in the second half of the year is relatively flat. In terms of configuration, the varieties with high performance certainty enjoy a premium. It is suggested to pay attention to the consumption and technology that show the advantage of relative strength of profit at the beginning of the disclosure season of the Chinese newspaper and are expected to maintain the repair trend in the second half of the year.
In addition, it is expected that the pricing power of “long money” dominated by institutions will be significantly enhanced in 2022. Among them, in addition to the continued high-scale net inflow of public offering, the net inflow of long-term funds such as foreign capital, insurance and financial management subsidiaries will increase significantly compared with last year, and blue chip will become the main line throughout 2022. ( Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) Qin Peijing, chief strategist of research department)
the third quarter may usher in a new round of upward cycle starting point
In 2022, the growth rate of A-share earnings will maintain a downward trend, the macro liquidity will gradually turn to abundant, and the growth rate of social finance will stabilize and rebound, driving A-share to usher in a new round of upward cycle starting point in the third quarter. The market is expected to show a trend of “stabilizing before rising” – similar to “√”.
In the new year, the trend of transferring residents’ funds to “rights based financial management” is still in progress, but before the liquidity is significantly loose, the rhythm of incremental funds has slowed down compared with the previous two years. The circulation market value of A-Shares has increased significantly, and the turnover rate of A-Shares will remain relatively low. In addition, as the valuation of institutional heavy positions is at a historically high position, A-Shares will show a trend from noisy to dull.
It is expected that driven by the gradual effectiveness of the steady growth policy, the economy will show a trend of low before stable. In the first half of the year, exports faced downward pressure under the high base, and the investment and financing demand needs to be further promoted. The enterprise profit growth rate maintained a downward trend in the first half of the year, triggering the countercyclical policy more actively. The new social finance growth rate became positive around the second quarter, resulting in an upward profit expectation. A shares will usher in the starting point of a new round of upward cycle.
According to the stage of a shares, the market style is expected to be relatively dominant in 2022; The main line is arranged along the two directions of “reverse cycle” and “Shun Technology”. Counter cyclical policy layout “liquidity improvement” and “stable social finance”, including banks, real estate, building materials, securities companies, etc; “New energy infrastructure and digital infrastructure”, “stabilizing real estate” and “promoting consumption”; In the field of science and technology, we focus on “metauniverse + VR” and aiot application landing (intelligent driving + industrial Internet).
