The A-share market will open on February 7. Will there be a vigorous market?
Reviewing the performance of A-Shares after the Spring Festival in the past 10 years (2012-2021), we can find that the probability of rising in the five trading days after the festival is high. Among them, in the past 10 years, the Shanghai Composite Index rose seven times in the five trading days after the Spring Festival, and the gem index performed relatively better during this period. The index rose eight times during this period, while the Shenzhen composite index also rose five times in the five trading days after the Spring Festival. It can be seen that the probability of rising in the five trading days after the Spring Festival is high.
Drawn by: Ren Shibi
Facing the upcoming February market, Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai open source fund, who was interviewed by the reporter of Securities Daily, said, “During the Spring Festival holiday, peripheral markets generally rose sharply, and US stocks closed positive for four consecutive trading days before falling for two days. The A-share market is expected to launch a spring offensive. Some negative factors worried by investors before the festival, such as the decline of economic growth, the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike and the outbreak of the global epidemic, have been reflected in advance to some extent, which is also the counter attack of A-Shares after the Spring Festival Created conditions. “
three positive factors supported the rebound of A-Shares after the festival
Institutions generally believe that the forward-looking signal of economic recovery has appeared, which has a strong positive pull on the stock market. Positive signals from all aspects show that the short-term bottom of the current A-share market has been formed, and the rebound after the Spring Festival is expected.
First, the performance of A-share listed companies continued to improve. Statistics show that up to now, 2553 A-share listed companies have disclosed the annual performance forecast for 2021, and 1473 companies are expecting good performance, accounting for nearly 60%. Among them, 565 companies expect the maximum year-on-year change of net profit in 2021 to reach 100% or more.
Second, economic data picked up. According to the data of the Bureau of statistics, in January, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 50.1%, which has been at the boom level for three consecutive months, and the forward-looking signal of economic recovery has appeared. In addition, the fiscal “surplus grain” reached a new high in 2021. It is preliminarily estimated that the balance of the central budget stability regulation fund and local financial carry over balance will exceed 1.4 trillion yuan by the end of 2021, a multi-year high, providing sufficient financial guarantee for the “good start” of the fiscal in the first quarter of this year. Experts expect that the economic and financial data in January will also exceed expectations, which will provide strong support for the “good start” of A-Shares after the Spring Festival.
Third, the peripheral stock market performed strongly during the Spring Festival holiday. Statistics show that during the Spring Festival (from January 31 to February 4), Asian stock markets rose the most, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 index rising 4.34% and 2.7% respectively; The three major stock indexes of the United States, standard & Poor’s, NASDAQ and Dow Jones, rose 1.55%, 2.38% and 1.05% respectively during the period, the UK FTSE 100 index rose 0.67% during the period, and the FTSE A50 futures rose nearly 2% during the long holiday.
Zhang Qiyao, chief strategist of China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that during the Spring Festival holiday, the overall performance of the overseas market was good. The market gradually digested the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates, and the overall risk appetite rebounded. The China concept Internet sector performed strongly, and Hong Kong stocks also made a good start in the year of the tiger, which strengthened significantly under the leadership of the science and technology sector. For a shares, the market has been significantly corrected before the Spring Festival, and the risk sentiment has been basically fully released. Superimposed on the strong performance of peripheral markets, it is expected to boost the risk appetite of Chinese investors after the festival, and A-Shares are also expected to have a good start.
The probability of A-share market rising in February is very high: “On the one hand, the current market adjustment range has been relatively sufficient. Judging from the duration and range of the decline, this round of market adjustment has been close to the average level of previous sharp decline adjustments; on the other hand, the current policies, measures and environment are very market-friendly. In terms of monetary policy, the people’s Bank of China has maintained reasonable and sufficient liquidity and guided financial institutions effectively We will expand credit and continue to reduce the financing costs of enterprises, especially small, medium-sized and micro enterprises. In terms of fiscal policy, we should appropriately advance infrastructure construction, and implement the large-scale combined tax reduction and fee reduction policy. According to historical experience and statistical rules, the probability of market rise in February is very high. On the one hand, this is because the market liquidity environment in February is relatively loose, on the other hand, it also reflects the market’s policy expectation for the following March. ” Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) said the strategy team.
the organization suggests grasping the four main line configuration opportunity
The year of the tiger is about to open. According to incomplete statistics, up to now, 20 securities companies have released their portfolio and strategic views in February, and a total of 152 A shares and Hong Kong stocks have been recommended. Among them, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) once again became the most promising stock of securities companies in February, which was jointly recommended by five securities companies, including Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) , Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) , Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) ; Four stocks including Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) were also recommended by three or more securities companies in February.
From the perspective of industry, the above 142 A shares and Hong Kong shares involve 29 Shenwan industries. Among the four industries such as power equipment, computer, automobile and basic chemical industry, the number of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares recommended by securities companies ranked first in February, with the number of individual shares involved being 14, 13, 10 and 10 respectively.
For the investment opportunities after the Spring Festival, Ping An Securities strategy team said that at present, the market has not formed a consensus on structural opportunities, and the rotation of the sector will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the direction and landing effect of the follow-up steady growth policy, as well as the possibility of improving the prosperity of the post epidemic recovery sector, and pay attention to new trading opportunities in the growth sector in the medium and long term, including digital economy Some segments of emerging industries such as high-end manufacturing and new energy.
Chen Mengjie, chief strategist of YueKai Securities Research Institute, told reporters, “Steady growth is the focus of the policy direction. Whether it is broad money or credit, the policy underpinning economy is worth looking forward to. Pay attention to the main line of steady growth and undervaluation, real estate, building materials and household appliances in the infrastructure and real estate chain, as well as consumer industries such as leisure services and food and beverage to expand domestic demand. The marginal change at the denominator this year has supported the trend of small and medium-sized stocks. In the stage of steady growth, We should pay attention to the sectors with the expected improvement and profit growth, as well as the energy transformation, high-end manufacturing, digital economy and other sectors supported by high-quality transformation and development. “
For the allocation opportunities in February, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) suggests paying attention to three clues: first, the perspective of expected improvement, focusing on the catalysis of hardware (VR) and Applications (such as virtual anthropomorphism) in the metauniverse and the media expected to be improved in sports related sectors during the Winter Olympics, and the computers that are well located in the digital economy planning of the 14th five year plan; Second, from the perspective of policy orientation, the undervalued central enterprises of building materials and mass consumption sectors in infrastructure construction deserve attention; Third, from the perspective of valuation cost performance, stocks with higher prosperity and adjusted performance exceeding expectations and significant decline in valuation in pharmaceutical, new energy, semiconductor and other industries.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) four stock selection criteria were recommended in February: first, cloud computing with “boom + non crowded chips” – upstream of optical communication and midstream of smart car; Second, power equipment and new energy with “relatively in place adjustment + solid medium and long-term logic”; Third, continue to hold the leading real estate state-owned enterprises, and select construction, building materials and home appliance stocks with guaranteed housing logic; Fourth, the equity incentive logic of non-financial central enterprises and state-owned enterprises.
