Today (February 7) is the first trading day of the year of the tiger for a shares. The Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern as a whole. The three major indexes opened higher in the morning, but then performed differently. The Shanghai index opened high and walked high, maintaining a high shock pattern throughout the day, while the gem index fell after the high opening, diving for a time and turning red again near the end of the day. Despite twists and turns, the three major indexes closed red in the end and maintained a good start.
As of the close of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets all day, the Shanghai index rose 2.03% to 3429.58 points; The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.96% to 13456.65 points; The gem index rose 0.31% to 2917.86.
From the disk point of view, the industry and concept sectors rose more or fell less, and the local profit-making effect is still in existence. In terms of industries, mining, engineering construction, cement and building materials, steel, petroleum, coal, insurance, nonferrous metals, automobile, banking and other industries led the increase; In terms of subject stocks, combustible ice, oil and gas equipment and services, low-carbon metallurgy, shale gas, assembly buildings, water conservancy construction, phosphorus chemical industry, natural gas and other gains were higher.
In terms of capital, the people’s Bank of China announced on February 7 that in order to maintain the reasonable and abundant liquidity of the banking system, the people’s Bank of China launched a 20 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding on February 7, 2022, with a bid winning interest rate of 2.1%. Since 150 billion yuan of reverse repo expired today, a net return of 130 billion yuan was achieved in a single day.
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1. According to the interface news, China’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of January were reported at US $3.2216 trillion, with an estimated US $3.2540 trillion, compared with the previous value of US $3.25 trillion.
2. The Ministry of industry and information technology and other three departments issued the guiding opinions on promoting the high-quality development of iron and steel industry and proposed to promote enterprise merger and reorganization. Encourage industry leading enterprises to implement merger and reorganization and build several world-class super large iron and steel enterprise groups. Relying on the advantageous enterprises in the industry, cultivate 1 ~ 2 professional pilot enterprises in stainless steel, special steel, seamless steel pipe, cast pipe and other fields respectively. Encourage cross regional and cross ownership mergers and acquisitions of iron and steel enterprises, change the “small scattered” situation of iron and steel industry in some regions, and enhance the endogenous driving force for enterprise development. Orderly guide independent hot rolling and coking enterprises in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei and surrounding areas to participate in the merger and reorganization of iron and steel enterprises. When carrying out smelting project construction for enterprises that have completed substantive merger and reorganization, give policy support for capacity replacement. Financial institutions are encouraged to actively provide comprehensive financial services to iron and steel enterprises implementing merger and reorganization, layout adjustment, transformation and upgrading in accordance with the principles of controllable risk and sustainable business.
3. According to the Securities Daily, the reporter sorted out that as of February 6, eight provinces and cities including Shandong, Beijing, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang and Sichuan had released the investment list of major projects in 2022, a total of 6501 projects, with a total investment of at least 15.6 trillion yuan.
4. According to the news on February 7 on the website of the Shanghai headquarters of the central bank, in 2021, the free trade account business will be guided by the construction planning of Lingang New Area and Pudong leading area, adhere to promoting reform and innovation and market drive, constantly expand functions, and expand the free trade account service to Hongqiao Business District; The market scale will be steadily expanded to give better play to the advantages of experimental fields and promote the development of the real economy.
institutional perspective
For the current market, Huaxin Securities pointed out that at the current node, the external negative factors before the festival have been significantly weakened, investors’ risk appetite will pick up significantly, and A-Shares are expected to usher in a restorative rebound, but the market space and rebound time are still limited.
Cinda Securities said that February is the month with the highest winning rate in Q1 every year. There is a stable growth environment this year. The performance forecast period in January has also ended, and the winning rate in February is also good. Strategically, after this adjustment, the whole a (non-financial petroleum and petrochemical) Pb quantile decreased from 72% to 45%. The valuation is reasonable, but it is not very cheap. Steady growth is advancing, but it will take time to change the increasingly cautious profit concerns. Although China’s macro interest rate has been declining, the micro capital environment is general. Therefore, strategic issues still need some time to digest. February is still a tactical monthly rebound.
Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) believes that in terms of historical industry performance, the value blue chip has higher excess returns in the chain of African bank finance, banking and real estate. Advantageous industries are mainly driven by policy expectations, fundamental data, valuation differentiation and convergence. From the perspective of valuation convergence, since December 2021, under the loose policy tone and the marginal improvement of economic data, the undervalued sector has been repaired. However, at present, the degree of valuation differentiation is still at an all-time high, and there is still a lot of room for the repair of the undervalued sector. From the perspective of profitability, the growth difference between industries in 2022 converges rapidly compared with that in 2021. It will be more difficult to find industries with obvious high prosperity advantages. The redistribution of profit structure and the repair of undervalued blue chips will be the main clues.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that there is no need to be overly pessimistic in the future, and the conditions for stabilizing A-Shares may be gradually met. 1) At present, the market has fully expected the fed to raise interest rates. It is expected that interest rates will be raised 4-6 times in the year, and the probability of raising interest rates 7 times is also increasing; 2) The overseas policy shift will not restrict China’s monetary policy orientation, and China will still be in a “wide currency” window period in the next 1-2 quarters; 3) Public funds have started the tide of self purchase, while popular fund products have gradually liberalized the purchase restrictions, which is conducive to the inflow of incremental funds into A-Shares and build a “market bottom” of a shares; 4) “Wide credit” is the final demand, infrastructure and real estate are important starting points, and industrial policies such as new energy (vehicles) and digital economy are strongly supported.
Who will be the pioneer of the rebound? The agency further analyzed: 1) real estate and upstream and downstream industrial chain. In the context of the demand for “stable economic growth”, it is expected that the subsequent local real estate policy regulation will still be adjusted on the margin, the real estate and upstream and downstream industrial chains will benefit from the marginal improvement of the policy, the sector valuation is expected to be repaired, and the individual stocks will focus on the central enterprises with increased market share.
2) new energy and new energy vehicles. At present, new energy and new energy vehicles are in a high boom development stage, and China’s policy support for the field of new energy and new energy vehicles is still highly certain. On January 10, the national development and Reform Commission, the national energy administration and other departments jointly issued the implementation opinions on further improving the service guarantee capacity of electric vehicle charging infrastructure; On January 21, the national development and Reform Commission and other seven departments jointly issued the notice of the implementation plan for promoting green consumption, proposing to vigorously promote new energy vehicles and gradually eliminate the purchase restrictions of new energy vehicles in various regions; The local two sessions have also steadily and orderly promoted the local “double carbon” system.
3) digital economy. Since this year, the field of digital economy has continued to welcome policy catalysis. The State Council officially issued the “14th five year plan” for the development of digital economy, proposing that by 2025, the added value of core industries of digital economy will account for 10% of GDP. Recently, the local two sessions have also intensively deployed the development of digital economy, and many provinces have put forward specific development goals. The field of digital economy is expected to meet accelerated development.
4) others: the seed industry sector benefiting from policy intensive catalysis, the pig breeding sector with the reversal of the bottom of the pig cycle, etc.
