After the Spring Festival, the A share market has been booming, but Baijiu Baijiu, which has attracted much attention from the market, has not achieved a good start. The liquor index has been running high and low, and it has turned green once in the middle of the market.
At the close, the Baijiu index was unchanged from the previous trading day. In terms of stocks, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) fell 1.01%, Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) fell 0.86%, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) fell 1.39%, Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) rose 5.75%, and Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(002304) rose 4.19%.
Behind the differentiation of individual stocks and the fluctuation of sectors is the increasingly fierce divergence of market views. In the past Spring Festival, many media reported the sales situation of Baijiu market, there was a big boom season. There were also big financial V views that the Baijiu stock cycle turning point was approaching. But at the same time, securities companies, funds and other institutions have repeatedly voicing Baijiu optimistic about the performance of liquor stocks.
The two party’s collision will lead to the interpretation of Baijiu stock market.
finance and economics V voice: Baijiu Market Research Report doubt?
Today, in a public community, the fan V, “Dong Baozhen,” has more than 600 thousand fans. The market media and research now have a completely different judgement and analysis of Baijiu. In his view, compared with the media, the terminal market has been seen to be insufficient in dynamic marketing, but the researchers did not go deep into terminal research, but rather emphasized the Baijiu market by emphasizing channel inventory and money back.
He believes that as the Baijiu distribution channel is long, the data of channel inventory can only be speculated, and the actual inventory is not known, and the situation of money making also needs to be understood by the finance department, so the authenticity of the relevant research papers is doubtful.
The big V is certified as the chairman of Lingtong Shengtai investment management and the fund manager of fujitai. The reason why he doubts the Baijiu stock research report may be due to his recent view on Baijiu shares. During the Spring Festival, the big V published Dong Baozhen: Baijiu Baijiu has entered the downward turning point of the big cycle, the article said that the liquor rising cycle has been deducted and has entered a downward turning point.
In his view, Baijiu cycle is 10 years, when the Baijiu factory price increases, will appear high to low inflection point. The current rising period began in 2016, and it has been five years since 2016. However, due to the rapid and urgent rise period, the cycle is premature. “Liquor in the middle and late stage of Baijiu” must have large scale excessive price rise, and form large-scale channel inventory.
Interestingly, the article does not point out the current actual inventory situation, but the big V believes that the negative growth in the fourth quarter net profit of liquor enterprises such as Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) , Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co.Ltd(600809) is the practical evidence that the channel inventory has been filled. He further indicated that although Baijiu’s annual income in 2021 was increasing, the fourth quarter was declining, which is actually the embodiment of the turning point.
“The external economic environment of Baijiu has been inflated and the economy has slowed down. The economic slowdown has led to a decline in income levels, a decline in consumption capacity and a decline in consumption capacity. Historically, it has always been an external incentive for the Baijiu bubble burst. The external incentives have come to an agreement now.” In the view of the big V, whether the recession in the fourth quarter is the beginning of a sustained recession will be fully confirmed or falsified in the data of the first quarter.
securities companies, funds and other institutions are optimistic about
While there are bearish voices, the market also has many bearish signals.
In the past four quarters, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) returned to the position of “No. 1 heavy position stock” of public funds. According to the data, by the end of the fourth quarter of 2021, 1513 funds had held Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) with a total number of 86.9431 million shares, with a total stock market value of 159106 billion yuan, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) followed by a market value of 139.181 billion yuan.
Many fund managers also expressed their views on Baijiu and other consumer tracks in the recent or quarterly reports. During the Spring Festival, Hou Hao, deputy director of investment fund quantification Ministry of investment, issued a statement that the whole Baijiu sector fluctuated after new year’s day, but this was not pessimistic. In his view, the consumption scenario may be better than last year in some cases, and he remains confident in the collection and performance certainty of the first quarter.
“This confidence is not echoing others, nor is it that a channel’s concern about moving sales has been corrected one week, but to examine the industry and high-quality enterprises in a broader scope and vision.” He said that last year’s high growth enterprises will still maintain vitality, which is the confidence in the improvement of enterprise ceiling in a longer dimension.
In the face of short-term game, long-term growth actually has a more adequate investment dimension, looking at long and long growth, understanding investment consumption and Baijiu investment, long-term resistance to inflation and even beyond the attributes, thinking seriously in an environment of excessive panic and over excitement. And Baijiu Baijiu and most of the Baijiu investors, even buy liquor and liquor fund managers to grow together.
Wu Yue, director of large consumption research of Harvest Fund, said in the four seasons that 2022 will usher in a structural bull market in consumer assets.
In his opinion, after more than a year of decline, the valuation risk of most consumer companies has been released, and even the pricing in some directions has returned to the historical low level. At the same time, driven by the extremely effective “boom rotation + industry comparison” methodology of A-Shares in the short term, the mainstream institutions choose to cluster on a few core high boom tracks, The risk of intensive positions at the beginning of consumption has also been eliminated.
Looking forward to 2022, he believes that in the first half of the year, it tends to be the Davis double-click market under the overall recession reversal of mandatory consumption and the individual stock market under the background of differentiation of optional consumption. “In the rapidly changing demand and channel environment, we continue to look for those invariants. We believe in the evolutionary adaptability of excellent enterprises, we believe in entrepreneurship, and we believe in the power of mean return. Each round of channel change and demand pressure period is the touchstone of excellent brands, which is the charm and spirit of consumption and investment.”
Gray asset chairman Zhang Kexing said in his 2022 vision that the group had made relatively large adjustments to the portfolio in the second half of last year, which greatly reduced the position of the Hong Kong stock Internet and switched to the A share consumer industry represented by the leading baijiu.
The reason for such switching is mainly based on the current uncertainty of supervision and policy in the Internet industry. Similarly, the liquor industry with the same sharp adjustment has been driven by the increasingly expected price of Baijiu Baijiu, and it has two major driving forces for valuation switching and growth acceleration.
Zhang Kexing believes that Baijiu’s long-term growth logic has not changed, and food, beverage and other consumer industries are the key sectors of this year. “The market reform of Baijiu leading enterprises is expected to be stronger and stronger. The huge difference between the factory price and terminal price will gradually become the revenue and profit of the listed companies. The growth rate of the leading enterprises in the Baijiu industry will be the turning point of the upgrading in 2022, and the long-term growth space can be expected.”
He further analyzed and interpreted it from the perspective of consumption mode and valuation level. The main consumption scenario of medium and high end Baijiu liquor is business consumption and banquets consumption. These two consumption scenarios have been continuously upgraded for a long time, and this consumption upgrade is irreversible. Even under the pressure of epidemic, the impact of high-end Baijiu is not very large.
From the valuation point of view, he believes that the overall valuation of Baijiu enterprises is in a reasonable position. Further, he considers that the Baijiu industry is in the best position from the perspective of risk free interest rate, free cash flow, growth rate, growth rate, sustainable growth rate and the possibility of subversion of the moat.
From the seller’s point of view, securities companies recommended a number of food, beverage and consumer stocks in February. Among them, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) was recommended by Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) , Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) and other securities companies. Some securities companies believe that in the medium and long term, the high brand barrier of Maotai will remain unchanged, and the market-oriented marketing reform is expected to further promote the gradual recovery of external profits, and the path of simultaneous rise of volume and price in the future will be clearer. Moutai’s performance in Baijiu sector is still determinate, product structure is further cleared up, and overall consideration of volume and price and new executive factors will be expected. Moutai’s performance will still exceed expectations in the next two years. After the January callback, the current valuation is in the long-term value layout area.
It is not hard to see that behind the market’s long and short game is optimism about the future expectations of the Baijiu stock market and the future uplift of the stock price in a reasonable or undervalued background. The other side is the worry of the current market consumption shortage and Baijiu price increase. Although today Baijiu sector ups and downs, but the larger the market divergence, the market is often able to fully deduce the opportunity.
