The biggest driving force of stock rise often comes from poor expectations!
A-share year of the tiger opens to show tiger power. On February 7, the three major stock indexes of Shanghai and Shenzhen opened higher in the morning, and the Shanghai Stock Index operated at a high level all day. The Shenzhen Component Index and the gem index rose at the beginning and then fell all the way, and the gem index turned green at the end. From the disk point of view, two sectors deserve attention: one is infrastructure, the other is banking. The former rose sharply due to the voice of the national development and Reform Commission, while the latter broke out due to a New Year message.
Bing dwen dwen carries a fire winter stock concept. Cultural Investment Holdings Co.Ltd(600715) , Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) , laibai shares and so on. Among them, Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) word board, it is reported that most of the Winter Olympic licensed goods are designed by the company. At present Bing dwen dwen Shuey Rhon Rhon is difficult to find, but snow is melting with frenzied goods. Zhao Weidong Shuey Rhon Rhon Bing dwen dwen, Beijing's Winter Olympic Organizing Committee, said: "besides paying attention to the ice pier, we should also pay attention to the snow."
judging from the current situation, the biggest winner in the Winter Olympic concept may be Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) . For the market, the most important thing is to have themes that can be hyped. So, can these themes continue to be popular? Can the market rebound continue?
the market rose out of tiger power
February 7, A-share fire. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3429.58 points, up 2.03%; Shenzhen composite index reported 13456.65 points, up 0.96%; Gem index reported 2917.86 points, up 0.31%.
From the disk perspective, the stable growth related sectors broke out in an all-round way, and the cement, large infrastructure central enterprises, construction, steel and coal sectors rose one after another, Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) , China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , Metallurgical Corporation Of China Ltd(601618) and other sectors were closed. Rare earth sector rebounded violently, China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) limit. The international oil price hit a multi-year high, and the oil and gas sector took advantage of the trend, Petrochina Company Limited(601857) rose by more than 9%, and China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) was on the board.
The most noteworthy is bank stocks. Today, the banking sector rose sharply, of which Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) rose by 5.41%, and Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Jiangsu Zhangjiagang Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(002839) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) and Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) all rose by more than 4%. The bank index rose 3.11%, and the market value of the whole banking sector increased by 220 billion yuan.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) Zhang Qiyao said that under "steady growth" and "wide credit" at the margin, on the one hand, the "mini version 2014" represented by big finance is arranged on the left. At the same time, the "small high tech" with deep adjustment, sufficient pressure release of congestion and still good prosperity is in the bottom area, and will also usher in the repair window.
Many institutions have also said recently that they are optimistic about the spring market. Strategically, it is suggested to light the index and focus on individual stocks, focus on steady growth, Chinese prefix and finance, and bargain hunting for new energy and carbon neutrality.
Credit blowout in the last week of January?
So, why did the banking sector start? Last night, a message similar to new year's greetings began to circulate in the investment circle. The director of a brokerage Research Institute said that there was a significant expectation difference in credit in January.
He said that credit may increase significantly year-on-year in January and is expected to continue in February. There is a large market expectation difference. It is suggested to attach great importance to the investment clue of steady growth in the first quarter. He also mentioned that the directors of bank stocks are most optimistic about Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) - the absolute leader in bank stocks in 2022, with a target price of 33.15 yuan / share and a current price space of 59%. The first quarter of this year is very suitable for buying banks: steady growth + wide credit + keeping the bottom line = buying banks, the increase will be considerable, and the leading increase will exceed 30%.
He said that during the holidays, bank resources were used for comprehensive grassroots research. The basic conclusions are as follows:
Compared with January 2021, almost all banks have increased their credit scale. It is conservatively estimated that the new credit in January will be more than 4 trillion, more than 3.58 trillion in January 2021.
2. Quality: the structure is quite good. It does not depend entirely on the amount of bills. The bill interest rate rose in the last week (confirmed by the side).
3. Rhythm: in the first 20 days of January, the credit supply of banks generally did not meet expectations, and many banks were worried that they could not complete the established delivery plan. But in the last week, there was a credit blowout, and the demand for both public and retail credit recovered significantly. According to forward-looking observation and judgment, the reserve items in February are relatively sufficient.
4. February: this year's spring festival mainly affects the credit supply in January, and last year affected the credit supply in February. From the perspective of project reserves in February, the credit is expected to continue to increase year-on-year in February this year.
Before that, there was a grassroots research in the market. Its main content is: since January this year, from January to October, bank credit investment is generally not ideal.
First of all, large state-owned banks were flat year-on-year and increased slightly. among the four major banks, a major bank increased RMB loans by about 300 billion from January to October, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 50 billion. Among the other three banks, one was basically flat year-on-year, and the other two were generally the same. Postal savings is mainly retail, and the prosperity of credit supply from January to October is higher than that of the four major banks.
Secondly, the credit supply of joint-stock banks is very weak. On January 1-10, the corporate and retail loans of nine national joint-stock banks at the head increased by about 84 billion, a year-on-year decrease of nearly 280 billion. Among them, corporate loans increased by 53 billion, less than 1 / 3 of the same period last year. A Shanghai Dragon Corporation(600630) bank's corporate loans increased slightly year-on-year, but retail sales were only half that of the same period last year, and other joint-stock banks were significantly weaker.
Third, the situation of urban commercial banks in economically developed areas is acceptable, but unlisted small and medium-sized banks are under great pressure. 1-10, Jiangsu, Zhejiang merchants, Shanghai and other listed urban commercial banks located in developed areas of Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Shanghai increased by 70 billion in public + retail, a small increase year-on-year, but retail was relatively weak. The credit of unlisted small and medium-sized banks is greatly dragged down. It is expected that the year-on-year increase from November to December will be less than 150 billion, and it is difficult to make a significant improvement in January.
This survey may be one of the main reasons for the market's decline in January, and it is also the source of this major poor expectation.
The theme of is still there, and there are hidden dangers
If the above grassroots research is true, it can basically be considered that the wide credit may have come. In the period of wide credit, there is rarely a bear market. Back to the disk, there is no lack of themes in the market. Bing dwen dwen is the best today.
Today, Beijing Yuanlong Yato Culture Dissemination Co.Ltd(002878) one word board trading limit. Shuey Rhon Rhon Bing dwen dwen Bing dwen dwen, the company's products, is selling on February 7th, which is a product of the company's design, including the ice pits, snow, and the crystal, the blind boxes, badges (mascot motion modeling series, countdown series, folk custom Series), precious metals (opening ceremony countdown gold and silver bars, etc.). Products produced and sold.
At present, the company has organized employees and factories to start production in an all-round way, made every effort to coordinate production capacity rationing, ensure the supply of licensed commodities for the Winter Olympic Games, and try its best to meet the needs of consumers.
Bing dwen dwen, Minister of Marketing Development Department of Beijing Winter Olympic Organizing Committee, said that due to the concentrated outbreak of demand, and the workers of factories were still in the Spring Festival holiday, some products, especially the ice pier pier concession commodities, were not readily available. The market development department of Beijing Winter Olympic Organizing Committee attached great importance to the production, and had communicated with the production enterprises after the factory started work, Pu Xuedong said. Take positive measures to promote product production, and products will be continuously supplied to the market.
Zhao Weidong, spokesman of the Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee, also said that the Beijing Winter Olympics Organizing Committee is stepping up coordination and increasing supply for the problem of "one trick is difficult to find". Bing dwen dwen Shuey Rhon Rhon. "Besides, we would like to remind you that besides paying attention to the ice pier, we should also pay attention to the melting of snow."
This means that there may still be room for speculation around the theme of the Winter Olympics. In addition, judging from today's market performance, steady growth may still be sustainable. However, it is worth mentioning that there are some hidden dangers in the market: first, there is insufficient capacity. Today, the index and large votes have risen so much, but the overall capacity has not been effectively enlarged. Even if foreign capital returns, the two financial institutions may return; The second is the serious differentiation of individual stocks. Although 109 stocks rose by the limit today, 47 stocks also fell by the limit, which means that the structural risk of the market is still not small; Third, today's market belongs to the pattern of replenishment, and the follow-up may be more or less affected by the periphery.
