Key investment points:
Key points:
1. We remain optimistic about the market after the festival. Similar to 2016, the pit filling market will be gradually deduced, dominated by changes in liquidity and policies, with a more balanced style. There are opportunities in the price rise chain in the traditional economic cycle and the digital economy and new energy fields in the science and technology industry cycle.
2. In January this year, A-Shares continued to fall, and the valuation adjustment was the main reason for the market correction. The valuation was affected by liquidity and risk appetite. The US bond interest rate rose rapidly driven by the real interest rate. The continuous strengthening of the tightening expectation of the Federal Reserve was the core factor to suppress the valuation of a shares; Risk appetite is mainly affected by the path and sustainability of China’s wide credit and the overseas geopolitical situation.
3. Like the performance in January this year, the market fell sharply in January 2016, and then the pit filling market was opened throughout the year. In 2016, driven by the real estate chain, the economy stabilized and rebounded, driving the reversal of all a performance in the second half of the year, which is the main driving force of the pit filling market. In 2016, China’s liquidity environment had limited support for the pit filling market, and the current policy environment is more friendly than that in 2016. This year’s pit filling market is worth looking forward to. Valuation is the main driving force, and the style of the market will be more balanced.
4. At present, the economy has run near the bottom of the current downward cycle. With the gradual appearance of the effect of the steady growth policy, Q2 is expected to be gradually confirmed; China’s liquidity and policies are favorable to equity assets. Looking forward to the national two sessions from the local two sessions, it has become a consensus to promote steady economic growth, and infrastructure and consumption will be the main focus; Overseas, the market is gradually taking into account the worst expectations. It is expected that the fermentation stage is often the most pessimistic moment in a round of tightening cycle. It is expected that the pressure on the rapid rise of US bond interest rates will be relieved after April. The current round of valuation adjustment has come to an end. With the upcoming national two sessions and the landing of the boots superimposed on the first interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, the market risk appetite will be warmed up, and A-Shares are expected to usher in a round of valuation repair.
5. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to lay out the varieties of post cycle and counter cycle in the traditional economic cycle and the fields of digital economy and new energy in the cycle of science and technology industry. In February, the preferred industries are petroleum and petrochemical, computer and power equipment.
