Zhou’s view: at this stage, focus on the two main leading targets of the securities sector
Overseas stock markets closed higher during the New Year holiday, with the Hang Seng Index and the S & P 500 index + 4.3% / + 1.6% respectively. In terms of the subject matter of Hong Kong stocks in the non bank sector, Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) Hong Kong stocks + 5.2% / + 3.8% / + 3.5% / + 2.6% respectively. We believe that the macro environment and industrial policies will support the brokerage sector to maintain profitability. There are opportunities for the two main lines of undervalued head brokerage and big wealth management track. At this stage, we focus on the two main lines with good margins, leading targets Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China stock market news. The completion of Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) share allocation has a margin of safety, and the comprehensive business advantages bring roe beyond expectations; The performance forecast of China stock market news and the ownership scale of non commodity funds at the end of the fourth quarter exceeded expectations, and the impact of debt to equity swap may gradually weaken and enter the layout area.
Securities companies: the double business cycle supports the profitability of securities companies, focusing on performance and data held in January
(1) in January 2022, 115 new equity + mixed funds were established, with a scale of 94.1 billion, a month on month ratio of – 24% and a year-on-year ratio of – 79%; From a weekly perspective, the scale of newly established stock + mixed funds in the last two weeks of January was 33.1/36.7 billion yuan respectively, with a slight improvement trend. On January 28, the China Foundation Association disclosed that at the end of 2021, the holding scale of non commodity funds was 16.1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36%, and the holding scale of shares + mixed stocks was 8.6 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34%. In December, the holding scale of non commodity / partial stocks was + 4.1% / + 2.0% month on month, exceeding our expectations. At the same time, the subscription of stock funds exceeded expectations, the willingness of basic people to redeem decreased, and the impact of new issuance on the growth of ownership continued to weaken. (2) The CSRC recently formulated the legislative work plan for 2022, including the relevant laws and regulations on the comprehensive registration system. In addition, the regulations and policies such as the measures for the administration of business qualifications of securities companies, the measures for the administration of overseas securities issuance and listing filing of domestic enterprises, and the measures for the administration of over the counter business of securities companies deserve attention. (3) The securities companies sector is in the double boom cycle of macro and industrial policies, and is expected to maintain high profitability. We believe that there are opportunities for securities companies with undervalued head and the main line of big wealth management. At this stage, we will focus on the leading targets of the two main lines Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and China stock market news, and pay attention to the performance and data in January. Recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and benefit from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) .
Insurance: highlight the defensive attribute of the sector and pay attention to the improvement trend of credit
(1) in December 2021 and January 2022, the index of the insurance sector was + 3.7% / – 1.9%, the index of the non bank sector was + 5.5% / – 6.7%, and the CSI 300 index was + 2.2% / – 7.6% respectively. Under the environment of record low 10-year Treasury bond yield and no improvement on the debt side, the insurance sector reflected its defensive attribute. (2) The premium data for the whole year of 2021 have been disclosed. Considering the impact of life insurance transformation and health insurance by the release of demand, the impact of Pratt & Whitney products and the decline of agent scale, we expect the value rate of new business in 2021 to be lower than previously expected, or equal to the mid-term report of 2021, dragging down the value performance of new business in 2021. We expect a good start in January, with weak premium growth and no improvement on the liability side. At present, the valuation and expectation of the insurance sector are at a historical low, which has the attribute of defense. The subsequent wide credit effect appears or drives the valuation repair of the sector. It is recommended that China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) and Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) with leading transformation and outstanding comprehensive competitive advantage benefit the target AIA.
Combination of beneficial objects
Securities companies: China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) ;
Insurance: China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co.Ltd(601601) , Ping An Insurance (Group) Company Of China Ltd(601318) , AIA;
Diversified Finance: Jiangsu Financial Leasing Co.Ltd(600901) .
Risk warning: stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on the profits of securities companies and insurance companies; The growth of insurance liabilities is less than expected; The profit growth of wealth management and asset management of securities companies was lower than expected.
