This week's view: affected by the market adjustment, the sales area of the top 100 real estate enterprises decreased by 44.4% year-on-year in January, and the transaction of commercial houses also decreased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday. On the performance side, the performance impact caused by liquidity problems is gradually reflected. Most of the mainstream real estate enterprises expect the net profit attributable to the parent company to decline year-on-year in 2021. In contrast, the performance growth rate of the enterprises that have released the notice is expected to increase by 25% or more year-on-year, which is better than that of the development as a whole. In terms of investment suggestions, the short-term industry fundamentals are still under pressure, and there is still room for policy game, which is expected to drive the continuous repair of sector valuation; In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal of some real estate enterprises and M & A integration within real estate enterprises, the industry pattern is expected to be reshaped, and real estate enterprises with financing, control and product advantages are expected to stand out. In terms of development, pay attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, and moderately pay attention to the second-line elastic targets Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Longguang group, etc. benefiting from the improvement of policies. In terms of diversified business, the valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, the performance has increased steadily, and the cost performance continues to highlight. We are optimistic about the property management leaders with outstanding comprehensive strength, such as country garden service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, and commercial operators with strong asset light output strength, such as Xingsheng commerce.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) the introduction of preferential income tax policies has strengthened the development of REITs; 2) Sorting out the positions of public funds; 3) The performance of real estate enterprises is under pressure, and the material enterprises are growing steadily; 4) The sales of the top 100 real estate enterprises continued to decline in January.
Market operation monitoring: 1) holiday transactions fell year-on-year, and the follow-up will still be under pressure. During the Spring Festival holiday (1.31-2.5), the average daily turnover of new houses in 50 key cities was 246, down 44.3% from the Spring Festival in 2021. After the follow-up online signature filing is on track, the weekly transaction is expected to gradually pick up from the low base of the holiday, but due to the cautious influence of supply and demand, the short-term transaction will still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in December 2021, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 2.2pct to 77.4% month on month. 3) Inventories rose slightly month on month, short-term or relatively stable. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 102.37 million square meters, up 0.2% month on month. The inventory may be relatively stable under the pressure of slowing down short-term supply and deregulation. 4) Third, the proportion of land premium rebounded, and the proportion of land premium in the second line increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 12.209 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 6.196 million square meters, up 139.9% and down 41.6% month on month; The transaction premium rate was 0.7%, up 0.5pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 1.1%, 54.7% and 44.3% respectively, with a month on month decrease of 16.9pct, an increase of 11.7pct and an increase of 5.1pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: last week, domestic real estate enterprises issued 7.08 billion yuan of bonds, an increase of 2.93 billion yuan month on month, and overseas bonds issued 1.253 billion US dollars, an increase of 630 million US dollars month on month; The domestic and overseas issuance interest rate is 2.3% - 7.5%, and the comparable issuance interest rate is lower than the previous one. 2) Trust: last week, collective trust issued 1.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.04 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector fell 4.2% last week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 4.51%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.24 times, and the valuation is at the quantile of 13.79% in recent five years. The top three net capital inflows from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north are Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) ; The top three net capital inflows from the south are country garden services, Jinke services and rongchuang services.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
