Production profile of national power industry in 2021
The electricity consumption of the whole society is 8.31 trillion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and the CAGR in the same period from 2019 to 2021 is 7.3%.
The national power generation was 8.38 trillion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%, and the two-year CAGR was 6.9%.
China’s installed capacity was 2.377 billion kw, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, and the CAGR in the two years was 8.7%.
China’s newly installed capacity was 176 million KW, a year-on-year decrease of 7.9%, and the CAGR in the two years was 31.6%.
The cumulative average utilization hours of power generation equipment in China were 3817 hours, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and the CAGR in the two years was – 0.1%.
Major power enterprises completed a total investment of 1.05 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%, and the CAGR in the two years was 14.5%.
Key indicators
Electricity consumption: the three industries regain high growth rate and start again after structural adjustment.
Power generation: wind filling water, light filling fire.
Utilization hours: rise in the whole line except hydropower.
New installation: “rush installation” is still in progress.
Project investment: wind, water drop, light, nuclear and fire rise.
Investment advice
From the demand side, the tertiary industry will resume its high growth momentum in 2021. Although the demand for the secondary industry is also strong, the structural adjustment previously affected by the epidemic is back on track. From the supply side, water and fire are subject to “raw materials”, and the proportion has declined, but the corresponding shares are filled by wind and light. Although the growth rate of investment in power supply has slowed down, the total amount is still at a new high, and the “rush to install” of wind and light still exists.
From the perspective of policy orientation, the guiding role of price signal for investment and operation has been continuously improved. China Yangtze Power Co.Ltd(600900) is recommended for hydropower sector, and Sdic Power Holdings Co.Ltd(600886) , Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc(600025) is recommended with caution; Recommended Shenergy Company Limited(600642) for thermal power sector; The nuclear power sector recommends China National Nuclear Power Co.Ltd(601985) and Cgn Power Co.Ltd(003816) with caution; Recommended China Three Gorges Renewables (Group) Co.Ltd(600905) for scenery operation section.
Risk tips
Utilization hours decline: macroeconomic operation will affect utilization hours;
Fluctuation of on grid price: electricity market-oriented transaction may cause fluctuation of on grid price;
Rising coal prices: for thermal power enterprises dominated by coal engines, rising fuel costs will reduce profits;
Precipitation reduction: the operating performance of hydropower mainly depends on the incoming water and consumption;
The promotion of the policy is not as expected: the regulation of electricity price by the policy always exists, and the state of power supply and demand may affect the construction of new nuclear power units.
