Core view
1. Since 2022, the price of potassium chloride has been rising in most regions. According to wind data, the price of potassium chloride in most parts of the world still showed an upward trend. Compared with the end of last year, the FOB spot price in northwest Europe, the former Soviet Union, Israel and Jordan increased by US $17.5/ton, US $12.5/ton, US $8.5/ton and US $4.0/ton respectively. On the supply side, due to the continuous fermentation of the Belarus incident, the global supply is tight, raising the international price of potash fertilizer. On December 8, 2021, the sanctions imposed by the United States on Belarus potash fertilizer, a large state-owned enterprise in Belarus, officially came into force. On January 12, Lithuania announced the termination of the transportation agreement between its state-owned railway company and Belarus potash fertilizer, saying that the sanctioned countries could not use Lithuania’s exports. Moreover, it is difficult for Belarus to find a completely alternative mode of transportation in the short term. Therefore, the sanctions will further aggravate the tight supply of global potash fertilizer, lead to the mismatch between global supply and demand, or promote the continuous rise of prices. On the demand side, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the price is high, and the demand for potash fertilizer increases, which supports the price. Since the beginning of 2020, the CBOT futures settlement prices of corn, wheat and soybean have increased by 59%, 40% and 48% respectively, and are still in the upward channel. As the global economy recovers, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rise and planting enthusiasm increases, driving up the demand for potash fertilizer and supporting the high price operation of potash fertilizer. In addition, with the advent of spring farming in the northern hemisphere, rising demand and further release of inventory will support the high price of potash fertilizer. Therefore, we judge that the price of potash fertilizer is expected to remain high in the first half of 2022. On the one hand, the international potash supply continues to be tight. On the other hand, with the advent of spring ploughing, the demand for potassium fertilizer is further increased, and the price of potassium fertilizer is expected to remain high.
2. In the past week, China’s chemical price index CCPI rose 0.3%, of which acrylic acid rose 7.1% and ethylene glycol fell 2.5%. In terms of acrylic acid, the reason for the price rise last week is that, on the one hand, the rising price of Chinese raw material propylene has supported the price of acrylic acid; On the other hand, the operating load of Chinese enterprises is generally low, and some enterprises enter the parking and maintenance stage, resulting in tight supply. At the same time, the downstream goods receiving intention is positive, and the price rises steadily. In terms of ethylene glycol, the main reason for the decline was the decline in the operating rate of downstream polyester, the production and sales performance was lower than expected, and the demand was sluggish.
3. The crude oil price rebounded in the past week, with the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures rising by 2.1% and WTI crude oil futures rising by 1.6%. The rise was mainly due to the tense situation in Russia and Ukraine, which strained the global crude oil supply, while the crude oil demand was limited to be disturbed by Omicron mutation virus, and the market was generally optimistic about the economic prospect. Crude oil prices rebounded under the conditions of recovery in demand and limited supply.
4. Market review. In the past week, three of the 26 Shenwan tertiary industries in the chemical industry rose and 23 fell. Among them, the largest increase was potash fertilizer, with an increase of 12.2%; The sectors with the largest decline were fluorochemicals and refrigerants, down 10.5%. In terms of individual stocks, the top three weekly gains were Shandongsino-Agriunitedbiotechnologyco.Ltd(003042) , Shanxi Huhua Group Co.Ltd(003002) , Shenzhen King Explorer Science And Technology Corporation(002917) , with weekly gains of 31.8%, 28.1% and 23.7% respectively; The top three weekly declines were Zhejiang Yongtai Technology Co .Ltd(002326) , Xilong Scientific Co.Ltd(002584) , Baotou Tomorrow Technology Co.Ltd(600091) , with weekly declines of 24.2%, 23.2% and 22.5% respectively.
Investment advice
Relevant targets under the high market price of potash fertilizer may benefit, such as Asia-Potash International Investment (Guangzhou) Co.Ltd(000893) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Zangger mining, Qingdao East Steel Tower Stock Co.Ltd(002545) .
Risk tips
The safety and environmental protection policy is upgraded, the international covid-19 epidemic continues, and the market price of chemical fertilizer fluctuates abnormally.
