The demand is good, and the supply and demand of power coal market is expected to be weak during the Spring Festival. As of January 28, wind data showed that the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 1065 yuan / ton, up 108 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. As the new year approaches, the number of holidays in coal mines increases and the supply weakens. At the same time, transportation and end users also began to have holidays. It is expected that the power load will fall. During the Spring Festival, the weak market of supply and demand is expected to continue. According to the coal resources network, the national development and Reform Commission is highly concerned about the changes in coal prices and has held a special meeting to deploy the work of stabilizing coal production, supply and price during the Spring Festival. This measure may put pressure on short-term coal prices. This week, the 2021 annual performance forecast of listed companies is still being released, and most of their profits show a high growth trend. From the perspective of coal price, the coal price in January 2022 is much higher than that in the same period last year. We believe that the high coal price in 2022 is expected to remain high, and the profits of Listed Companies in the sector are expected to remain high. At present, the valuations of Listed Companies in the sector are at a low level, and high profits help to promote the valuation of the industry.
Coke may face a mismatch between supply and demand, and the price will run smoothly in the short term. According to wind data, as of January 28, the factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke closed at 3200 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The market price of Linfen secondary metallurgical coke closed at 2880 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In terms of ports, the price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary metallurgical coke was 3310 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, at present, the operating rate of coking enterprises is relatively high, and the implementation of environmental protection production restriction is relatively loose. In terms of steel plants, with the tightening of production restriction and the basic end of stock replenishment before the festival, the demand for coke has decreased, the blast furnace of steel plants in some areas has stopped production, and the coke is mainly consumed inventory. At the same time, the recent rain and snow weather has also led to the obstruction of transportation, the forced accumulation of coke, and the mismatch between coke supply and demand may gradually begin. It is suggested to pay attention to the impact of relevant policies of the follow-up Winter Olympic Games on the coke market.
Coking coal prices are expected to run smoothly. According to wind data, as of January 28, the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 2830 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. According to the coal resources network, near the end of the year, some coal mines around the country arranged holidays, the coal mine output decreased, and affected by the weather, the road transportation was slightly hindered, and the overall supply of coking coal market tightened. Downstream, as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the replenishment of coke steel enterprises is gradually completed, and the enthusiasm of coke steel enterprises to transport slows down due to the epidemic and rainy and snowy weather. On the whole, the mainstream of coking coal market is expected to operate stably in the short term.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are also expected to usher in value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) Under the dual carbon target, we recommend Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) as the target for methane emission reduction.
Risk tips: 1) risk of economic slowdown. 2) The risk of a sharp decline in coal prices. 3) Risk of policy change.
