Precious metals: economic growth supports faster interest rate hikes in the United States, and the long-term logic of precious metals is turned on. Gold: ① nominal interest rate: during the week, the interest rate of ten-year US bonds rose to 1.78% from 1.75%. Since August, the overall trend has remained in the upward channel. On Wednesday, the Fed’s statement at the FOMC meeting in December was partial to Eagle, strengthening the market’s expectation of raising interest rates in March; Meanwhile, the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of the United States released on Wednesday evening was 6.9%, the highest growth rate in the United States in nearly 40 years, much higher than the expected 5.5% and the previous value of 2.3%. Strong economic growth data support the current interest rate increase policy. Driven by the double push, the US dollar index rose to a high in nearly January, and Comex gold fell more than 2.5%. ② Inflation expectations: implied inflation in the US bond market rose to 2.44% from 2.34% this week. Inflation continued to rise, which made it urgent for the United States to discuss the interest rate hike policy. The potential risks of economic growth and epidemic spread were the main constraints of the early interest rate hike policy. The announcement of US GDP in the fourth quarter provides more sufficient rationality for raising interest rates. The pace of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is accelerated, and the expectation of interest rate hike is again ahead of inflation concerns. Precious metals may start a medium-term decline in the first quarter.
Base metal: the accumulated inventory before the festival was less than expected, and the logic of low inventory continued to be consolidated. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the latest FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve hinted that monetary policy might be tightened faster than expected. The strong GDP performance of the United States in the fourth quarter once again confirmed the expectation of raising interest rates in March, the dollar rose sharply and copper prices were under pressure; ② In terms of supply, at the end of the year, the smelter had abundant copper concentrate inventory and light trading, and the spot TC was deadlocked at the middle of 60; Under the stimulation of high profits in 2022, the concentrated volume of copper concentrate is the most negative for the fundamentals of the copper market. In terms of stages, there is a game between the decline of long-term ore grade and the investment of short-term new production capacity; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, in the last trading week before the Spring Festival, most of the downstream markets have entered a holiday state. During the week, the downstream construction slowed down significantly, and the sharp drop in copper prices failed to boost the downstream purchase intention. Three weeks before the Spring Festival, the global inventory began to rise, with a total accumulated inventory of less than 50000 tons and a total global inventory of only 420000 tons, compared with 740000 tons in the same period in 2020. The main reduction is in China, which still reflects the impact of power restriction on China’s metal supply. Overall, copper is still one of the most smooth metal varieties with low inventory logic. After the festival, on the one hand, we should pay attention to the interference of the US interest rate hike on copper prices. In addition, the driving effect of infrastructure, power grid and other sectors on copper consumption in spring is also particularly critical. (2) Aluminum: ① in terms of inventory: 71500 tons to 1105500 tons went to the stock exchange on Wednesday, including 54900 tons to 811100 tons of LME inventory in a single week and 15800 tons to 266900 tons of SHFE inventory in a single week. According to Baichuan Yingfu, China’s social Treasury accumulated 4400 tons to 764700 tons this week, an increase of 12000 tons over the same period last year; ② Supply: the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production stagnated in the last week before the Spring Festival. According to the statistics of Baichuan Yingfu, the starting capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 38.02 million tons by January 27, which was flat on a weekly basis. The Winter Olympics and environmental protection inspection are still the factors restricting the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production. The continuous heavy snow in Shanxi, Henan and other places also affects the delivery rhythm of aluminum ingots, and the storage and arrival of some aluminum ingots are reduced. Overseas, the European energy crisis has not been alleviated, the scale of production reduction or further expansion under the continuous rise of natural gas and electricity prices, and the rate of overseas inventory removal may accelerate; ③ Demand: this weekend officially entered the Spring Festival market, downstream processing plants have holidays one after another, only some large factories maintain normal production, demand decreases, consumption weakens, and the industrial chain presents a typical spring festival market. However, as the operation level of electrolytic aluminum in the upstream is still low, China’s social library still shows a cyclical accumulation trend. The accumulation in the same period in the past three years was 35000 tons, 56000 tons and 11000 tons respectively, and this year it only reached 4400 tons. In addition, the current LME inventory is still at a rapid destocking level, and the inventory level has approached a historic low of 800000 tons. The global apparent inventory may continue to decrease during the Spring Festival. Under the situation of low inventory and weak supply, the aluminum price is difficult to fall even during the Spring Festival. If the inventory falls again in the first quarter, the aluminum price may rise again. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , China nonferrous metals mining, Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Aluminum Corporation Of China Limited(601600) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) .
Energy supply and demand are strong, while the downstream metal purchase price is supported by EV. (1) Lithium: during the week, the electric carbon increased by 20000 yuan / ton to 380000 Yuan / ton, and the price broke through the profit space of lower electric carbon. During the week, it increased by 16700 yuan / ton to 179700 yuan / ton. Under the trend of rising prices of new energy vehicles, and the gap between supply and demand continues to increase, resource side enterprises are expected to continue to benefit; (2) Nickel: the price of nickel fell by more than 8% this week. Under the condition of serious profit inversion, the quotation of nickel sulfate remained stable at 41750 yuan / ton. Due to limited demand, the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel further expanded from 39800 yuan / ton to 48200 yuan / ton. The first batch of Indonesian Qingshan high matte nickel has been shipped to China, and nickel sulfate raw materials are further abundant, dragging down nickel prices; (3) Cobalt: this week, the middle price of MB cobalt was reported at US $34.39/lb, which increased slightly, and the shipping in Africa eased slightly, but on the whole, it is still tight. Before the Spring Festival, the purchase demand of downstream battery plants increased, the price of cobalt salt rose sharply in recent two weeks, and the profits of cobalt salt plants were in an upward trend as a whole. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhefu Holding Group Co.Ltd(002266) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Youngy Co.Ltd(002192) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , Xiamen Tungsten Co.Ltd(600549) , Xtc New Energy Materials( Xiamen) Co.Ltd(688778) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) .
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
