Key investment points:
Monthly topic: the 14th five year plan for civil aviation development was issued, and the expected average annual growth rate of passenger volume decreased to 5.9%. The 14th five year plan for civil aviation development was issued on January 7. China's civil aviation industry will show two-stage development from 2021 to 2025, of which 2021-2022 is the recovery period and savings period, and 2023-2025 is the growth period and release period. In the second stage, we should focus on expanding the Chinese market, restoring the international market, improving the level of opening to the outside world, accelerating the improvement of capacity, scale and quality efficiency, and promoting the high-quality development of civil aviation in an all-round way.
Overall, compared with the 13th five year plan, the 14th five year plan has slowed down in major transportation indicators such as the growth rate of total transportation turnover, passenger transport volume and cargo and mail transport volume, of which the growth rate of total transportation turnover and passenger transport volume has decreased by about half compared with the 13th five year plan. At the same time, the plan mentioned the need to optimize the layout of China's and international route networks, unblock China, expand international, and build a accessible, interconnected, convenient and efficient air passenger transport network.
Logistics Express: the stability of the pattern has been verified, and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Zhongtong express and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) express are mainly recommended: in terms of middle and low-end tracks, e-commerce express enterprises with rapid improvement of profitability supported by the improvement of the pattern - Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) . In December 2021, several rounds of policies highlighted the determination of supervision, and the price rise of the express industry has been implemented. Looking forward to 2022, in addition to policy supervision, the head enterprises also have strong profit demands. Looking forward to the new stage, head express enterprises will stop capital expenditure expansion, the proportion of capital expenditure in revenue will continue to decline, the supply side change signal appears, and the e-commerce express industry will switch to the stage of high revenue growth and low capital expenditure growth. It is optimistic that e-commerce express enterprises will open up the space for profit improvement and cash flow repair under the support of pattern improvement. Focus on recommending e-commerce express head Enterprises - Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) .
In terms of medium and high-end tracks, we continue to recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , the leading express brand of high-end tracks. Looking forward to 2022, with the promotion of the four networks financing project, the development of SF express, e-commerce express and other new businesses will continue to optimize production capacity, accelerate loss reduction, develop more mature new businesses and even take the lead in realizing profits on the basis of raising revenue, controlling costs and ensuring profits; With the end of the large capital expenditure cycle, SF is expected to steadily improve its profit margin under the background of capacity climbing and single ticket revenue repair. In the long run, the landing of Kerry Logistics acquisition has also further improved SF's international layout and the coordinated development of multi business track, and is optimistic about SF's leading position and competitive advantage in the comprehensive logistics track for a long time.
Cross border Logistics: continue to recommend Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) benefiting from freight rate dividends and new business integration. Looking forward to 2022, due to the instability of the overall cross-border supply chain, air and sea freight rates are expected to remain high, while the leading freight forwarder Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) is expected to continue to benefit from freight rate dividends and have strong performance certainty with its strong resource control ability. The recurrence of the epidemic, on the one hand, limits the steady-state operation of the supply chain, leading to the rise of freight rates, on the other hand, inhibits the release of freight volume, resulting in the inability of freight enterprises to carry out business effectively. Waiting for the epidemic to enter a steady state, international freight forwarding enterprises are expected to usher in investment opportunities with both volume and price. In the long run Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) , the company continues to cultivate the whole chain capacity of cross-border e-commerce logistics and enhance the synergy with traditional freight forwarding business. Supported by the freight rate dividend of air and sea freight forwarding, it is expected to promote the simultaneous development of cross-border logistics volume and price and open the growth space of profit and valuation.
Airport aviation: it is expected to continue to rise, and the inflection point still needs to wait
Recently, there has been a rebound in the epidemic in many places in China, which has affected the aviation demand. In the fourth quarter of 2021, the civil aviation business volume declined year-on-year compared with that in 2020. The epidemic situation is the core variable at the medium-term level of the industry, which determines the trend of the airport aviation sector. Looking forward to the future, the recovery trend has been clear and the rhythm is difficult to grasp. After the epidemic prevention policy turns, the certainty of the two sectors will lead the whole industry. On the day of the reopening of the country, when the value returns.
There are opportunities for deterministic valuation and repair in the airport sector. Meilan Airport, the core asset of Hainan free trade port, and one of China's three major gateway airports are recommended, with a valuation of Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) at the bottom of history. As a tax-free airport with excellent talent in China, Meilan Airport has three times the growth space of passenger flow and is in a relative monopoly position. It enjoys the tax-free dividend of outlying islands. Under neutral expectation, the passenger throughput of the airport will reach 40 million person times in 2025, the sales of offline duty-free stores will reach about 10 billion yuan, and the corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company will be about 2.3 billion yuan. At present, substantial progress has been made in the nationalization of Meilan Airport, which is expected to drive the valuation repair of the company in the short term. Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) as one of the three major gateway airports in China, the business model is excellent, the performance in the medium and short term affected by the epidemic continues to be under pressure, and the valuation is at a historic bottom. After the epidemic, the company is expected to usher in valuation repair and return to high growth.
Aviation: it has the dual logic of valuation repair and supply-demand elasticity. The recent aviation recovery is expected to drive the valuation repair of the sector, but the elastic logic still needs to wait patiently. Continue to focus on recommendations α and β Both Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , repair in the short term, elasticity in the medium term and growth in the long term. Continue to recommend the low-cost leader Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) . The company is located in the subdivision track of thick snow Changpo. It enjoys the demand dividend, has a clear competition pattern and has the first mover advantage, which is expected to bring long-term excess returns to investors. The core variable of q2021 is the supply and demand elasticity, but it provides a preliminary verification for the supply and demand of q2021. At present, no clear signal of the shift of epidemic prevention policy has been observed, and the elasticity of supply and demand needs to wait patiently.
Container transportation: the situation of port congestion still exists. Wait for the off-season test in the first quarter. Affected by the Chinese Spring Festival, the first quarter has always been the off-season of port throughput in the western United States. After the off-season in the first quarter, whether Los Angeles and long beach ports can take the opportunity to effectively clean up the previously accumulated boxes is a key variable to determine the short-term freight rate trend.
The main logic of stock price rise in 2021 is the rise of freight rate under the mismatch of supply and demand. The main contradiction of supply and demand mismatch is the disorder of supply chain caused by port congestion. The influencing factors are: long-term: US port infrastructure and truck production capacity have reached the edge of short supply before the epidemic; Short term: ① epidemic situation; ② Port operation in 2022q1 import off-season; ③ The effectiveness of a series of US policies to save the supply chain.
There are two opportunities for centralized transportation in 2022: first, the mode of freight rate rise will transition from immediate to long-term association. At that time, the growth and certainty of the performance of the centralized transportation company will be improved to a certain extent. Second, at present, the short-term factors affecting the supply chain dominate the expected changes. If the role of short-term ①, ② and ③ factors on the mitigation of supply chain congestion is falsified in 2022, the valuation of container shipping companies is expected to be repaired to a certain extent.
Industry rating and investment strategy
Logistics Express: e-commerce express buying pattern and comprehensive logistics buying layout; Airport aviation: there are valuation repair opportunities in the airport, and aviation has the dual logic of valuation repair and supply and demand elasticity; Container transportation: port congestion still exists, waiting for the off-season examination in the first quarter. Maintain the industry "recommended" rating.
Key recommended stocks
Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Zhongtong express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Meilan Airport, Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) , Juneyao Airlines Co.Ltd(603885) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Cosco Shipping Holdings Co.Ltd(601919) .
Risk tips
In terms of the company: the failure of M & A, the bankruptcy caused by the rupture of cash flow, the passive substantial dilution of shares caused by the issuance of additional shares at a low price, the positions of franchisees burst, and the cost control was less than expected. Industry: business growth is lower than expected, major policy changes, intensified competition, industrial accidents, etc.
Macro aspects: large economic fluctuations, geopolitical conflicts, large fluctuations in oil remittances, large-scale natural disasters, a new round of epidemic outbreaks, etc.
