Market situation: ah core property index of this moonlight real estate + 4.96%
Index: Everbright real estate ah core property index rose by + 4.96% in a single month, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 12.6pct, Outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 3.2pct, Outperformed the Hang Seng Hong Kong stock connect index by 4.5pct. Individual stocks: Everbright real estate ah core property index component share capital rose or fell by + 2.7% on average on a monthly basis; Among the highest ups and downs: China Resources Vientiane life (+ 25.6%), xinchengyue service (+ 24.3%), Jinke service (+ 23.4%), Greentown service (+ 18.9%), Xuhui Yongsheng service (+ 15.7%).
Hong Kong stock connect: changes in shareholding ratio this month: Shimao service (+ 4.49pct.) Jinke service (+ 2.58pct.) Rongchuang service (+ 2.30pct.) Poly property (+ 1.31pct.) Xuhui Yongsheng service (+ 1.30pct.). Industry trends: the State Council promotes the construction of urban and rural community service system in the 14th five year plan
Central Committee: the State Council issued the plan for the construction of urban and rural community service system in the 14th five year plan. The goal is that by the end of 2025, Party construction will lead the construction of community service system to be more perfect, and the service subjects and service formats will be more abundant; The Ministry of housing and urban rural development and the national development and Reform Commission further clarify the requirements for the transformation of old residential areas. Residents can start the transformation only after they reach a consensus on the property management mode after the transformation and pay the necessary property service fees.
Local: Beijing sets 2022 urban property management development goals; Shanghai issued the detailed rules for the fee system of residential property, clarifying the composition of property service funds, the implementation of the fee system and the opening of project accounts. Enterprise dynamics: Longhu Zhichuang life plans to be listed in Hong Kong; China Resources Vientiane life plans to acquire Yuzhou property and Zhongnan service; New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) and poly property released the performance forecast for 2021
Business dynamics: Urban Services: Country Garden Services won the bid for the comprehensive operation and management service project of zhanggongshan North Park, and the domestic waste removal and transportation service in the old urban area of Mashan County from 2022 to 2023. Project expansion: green city service won the bid for Jinhua Martyrs Memorial Park Service. New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) won the bid of Changsha rail transit Property Management Co., Ltd. for cleaning services in the depot and parking lot of Changsha Metro Lines 1 and 4 from 2022 to 2023.
Capital market dynamics: listing progress: on January 7, Longhu Zhichuang life submitted the listing application form to the Hong Kong stock exchange. On January 19, Lushang life service submitted its prospectus to the Hong Kong stock exchange for the second time. Acquisition and Merger: China Resources Vientiane life announced on January 5 that it plans to acquire Yuzhou property service (no more than 1.06 billion yuan), and announced on January 20 that it plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhongnan service (no more than 2.26 billion yuan). On January 10, Hejing Youhuo planned to acquire 50% equity of Guangdong Telijie Environmental Engineering Co., Ltd. (at a price of 165 million yuan).
Performance forecast: on January 28, New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) released the performance forecast for 2021, which is expected to achieve an operating revenue of about 2.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 59%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 166 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 26.5%. Poly property issued a performance forecast. In 2021, the profit attributable to owners increased by about 25% year-on-year.
Investment advice: focus on four main lines
The property industry is positioned as the "grass-roots pillar of community governance", with strong policy support from governments at all levels. "High quality and good price" is conducive to expanding the overall development space of the industry. Starting from the development trend of the industry and the company's resource endowment, it is suggested to pay attention to four main lines: 1) the first echelon of scale, the platform company that is expected to export management and resources, and recommend country garden services, It is suggested to pay attention to green city service, elegant life service, rongchuang service and Jinke service; 2) For the growth target of the second echelon of the scale, Xincheng Yue service is recommended, and it is recommended to pay attention to Jianye new life, Xuhui Yongsheng service and Shimao service; 3) For the management targets of professional commercial offices with high charging level and large profit elasticity, ocean service is recommended, and it is recommended to pay attention to New Dazheng Property Group Co.Ltd(002968) , Baolong commerce and excellent commercial enterprises; 4) For the property management targets of central enterprises with outstanding resource endowment, it is recommended to pay attention to China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) and China Resources Vientiane life.
Risk analysis: labor cost risk; Risk of value-added service expansion; Dependence risk of related parties; Outsourcing risk.
