Main points
This week, the household appliance sector rose by - 5.7%, of which the white electricity / Black electricity / kitchen electricity / small household appliances sectors were - 5.1% / - 3.0% / - 7.0% / - 7.0% respectively. There were more callback of individual stocks with large increase in the early stage. In terms of raw materials, LME aluminum decreased by 0.7%, while LME copper and plastics increased by 2.0% and 0.9% month on month.
Spring Festival consumption: the Spring Festival transportation promotes the consumption of new year goods, and the data of health preservation / house / Black technology are beautiful. From the perspective of consumption environment, the Spring Festival migration has improved significantly year-on-year with the slowdown of the epidemic, and the Spring Festival consumption is driven by New Year gifts. According to the Ministry of transport, as of the fourth day of the Lunar New Year (February 4), the Spring Festival transportation has sent a total of 4.6 trillion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 46%, 35% of the same period in 2019. Multiple promotion policies on the supply side stimulate consumption during the Spring Festival, Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) discounts are more, and more consumption vouchers are issued.
In terms of consumption trend, the characteristics of the third consumption era are remarkable. With the upgrading of the purchasing habits of the first-line and second-line people in the city, they are gradually welcomed by the first-line and second-line people. We summarize the consumption trends during the Spring Festival, including: quality home, health preservation, science and technology entertainment, and new generation cooking, and the key benefits of relevant categories. According to the big consumption data of Taobao live broadcast of the new year's goods Festival, the growth rate of transaction volume of floor washing machine, air fryer, dryer and projector live broadcast room ranked first, with 434%, 308%, 173% and 59% respectively.
The relevance between home appliance enterprises and the Winter Olympic Games is mainly reflected in two aspects: (1) the head enterprises continue to make efforts in sports event marketing and enhance the global popularity of the brand with the help of the advantages of Chinese organizers; (2) The demand for watching sports events continued to benefit TV sales. The comprehensive strength of the head household appliance brand is strong. Seizing the nodes of important events and increasing the exposure rate is conducive to driving sales, improving international influence and accelerating the process of brand going to sea. The particularity of Winter Olympics marketing is that household appliance enterprises can not only increase global exposure with strong comprehensive strength, but also the attributes of "winter" and "sports events" of Winter Olympics are naturally highly related to air conditioning and display track, which brings good opportunities for sponsorship and brand marketing of relevant enterprises. The color TV industry is undergoing transformation and upgrading. This winter Olympics is the first large-scale live broadcast of sports events using 8K technology in the world, and the holding time covers the second half of the Spring Festival. It is expected to further drive the consumption of color TV and stimulate the growth of 8K and large screen users.
Investment advice
White electricity and kitchen electricity faucets have high turnover efficiency and strong ability to raise prices. 22q1 has high certainty of performance improvement with the decline of raw material prices, and the post cycle demand of real estate is expected to be released quarterly. It is suggested to actively layout Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) , Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) before and after the annual report. The small household appliance sector Bear Electric Appliance Co.Ltd(002959) and other sectors have been subject to the pressure of high base in 21 years, and the performance of 22q1 is expected to improve with the recovery of demand; Q2 improvements such as Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) , Guangdong Xinbao Electrical Appliances Holdings Co.Ltd(002705) are expected to be high, but according to its preparation cycle, 21q4 and 22q1 correspond to high price inventory, and the export business is greatly affected by the sea price. It is expected that 21q4 and 22q1 may still be under certain pressure, but it is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the fluctuation of stock price before and after the annual report.
Risk tips
The risk of rising raw material prices, the risk of less than expected demand, the risk of repeated outbreaks, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and the risk of chip out of stock and rising prices.
