Key investment points:
Market review: last week, the home appliance (CITIC) industry index fell 5.73%, and the overall performance was average. The weekly increase ranked 20th in the CITIC primary industry index, losing 1.22 percentage points to the CSI 300 index in the same period. Last week, the performance of the electronics industry was average, only the black household appliance sector performed well, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.54 percentage points; The rest of the electronic sections lost the CSI 300 index. Last week, CITIC's home appliance stocks recorded poor performance, accounting for only about 4%; Only Chengdu Xgimi Technology Co.Ltd(688696) one rose more than 5% a week, with a weekly increase of 6.37%; 74 stocks recorded negative returns, accounting for about 94%; Among them, there are 40 with a weekly decline of more than 5% and 7 with a weekly decline of more than 10%. Valuation: as of January 28, 2022, the overall PE (TTM) of the home appliance (CITIC) industry was about 17.92 times, down 5.93% from the previous Friday, falling below the average valuation level of the industry since 2017; The ratio of overall PE (TTM) of home appliance (CITIC) industry to Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe (TTM) is 1.43 times, which is lower than the average relative valuation level of the industry since 2017.
Industry operation data: in 2022w4, the sales volume of white wire improved, and the offline performance of integrated stove dishwasher was better. According to ovicloud, in the fourth week of 2022: (1) ice washing: clothes dryers have excellent omni-channel sales performance, with year-on-year positive growth in offline sales and sales of freezers, refrigerators, washing machines and air conditioners, and year-on-year positive growth in offline sales of color TV sets. (2) Kitchen power: online sales of most categories fell year-on-year, and offline performance was better than online. Offline sales of gas stoves, integrated stoves and dishwashers increased year-on-year. (3) In terms of kitchen micro steaming and baking: the overall offline sales and sales volume of embedded composite machines and embedded machines increased year-on-year, and the offline sales volume of desktop pan microwave increased year-on-year. (4) Kitchen small electricity: the overall performance is poor, and the sales volume and sales volume of most categories Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) have declined year-on-year. (5) Environmental health appliances: affected by the weather, the sales of electric heaters Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) have achieved positive year-on-year growth, and the offline sales of cleaning appliances, sweeping Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) and electric fans have achieved positive year-on-year growth.
Industry perspective: maintain the recommended rating of the industry. At the beginning of 2022, real estate policies were frequently released, including provident fund policy, talent subsidy, house purchase subsidy and other policies, which continued the direction of marginal easing in the fourth quarter as a whole. At present, the raw material cost of household appliances tends to be stable, the cost pressure of white electricity has been relieved, and the industry leaders continue to maintain the advantages of brand and scale. Real estate promotes the relief of superimposed cost pressure. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to Midea Group Co.Ltd(000333) (000333) of technology and products and Haier Smart Home Co.Ltd(600690) (600690) of high-end and ecological brands. In terms of kitchen electricity, the upgrading trend remains unchanged, and the integrated stove dishwasher performs well offline. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to the online integrated stove leader Marssenger Kitchenware Co.Ltd(300894) (300894), the rapid expansion of integrated stove scale Zhejiang Entive Smart Kitchen Appliance Co.Ltd(300911) (300911), and the gradual release of integrated stove capacity Zhejiang Sanfer Electric Co.Ltd(605336) (605336). In terms of cleaning electrical appliances, it is recommended to use floor washing machines for deep cleaning of families. It is recommended to use Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) faucet Ecovacs Robotics Co.Ltd(603486) (603486) in China and Beijing Roborock Technology Co.Ltd(688169) (688169) in large quantities.
Risk tip: the impact of uncertainty in epidemic prevention and control on consumers and industries; The impact of real estate cycle fluctuation; Upstream raw material price fluctuation risk; RMB exchange rate fluctuation risk, etc.
