Matters:
China Securities Investment Fund Industry Association released the data of the top 100 companies with the holding scale of public funds in the fourth quarter of 2021. The holding scale of stock + hybrid public funds (hereinafter referred to as “equity funds”) is 6.5 trillion yuan and that of non money market public funds (hereinafter referred to as “non money funds”) is 8.3 trillion yuan.
Ping An View:
From the perspective of the sales retention scale of 21q4 public funds, the scale of equity funds and non commodity funds maintained stable growth, but the institutional performance was differentiated and the proportion of equity funds in non commodity funds continued to decline month on month. 1) The ownership scale of insurance, fund subsidiaries, third-party institutions and banks increased (equity funds + 20.4%, + 14.9%, + 10.0%, + 4.0% month on month respectively), and the ownership scale of securities companies decreased (Equity Funds – 0.4% month on month). 2) The proportion of equity funds in the non commodity base continued to decline by 2.8pct to 77.6%, with the proportion of non commodity base holding + 8.7% month on month and the proportion of equity funds + 4.9% month on month; The ownership scale of equity funds of banks, securities companies and third-party institutions accounted for 86.1%, 92.5% and 59.0% of the non commodity base respectively, with a month on month decline of 1.4pct, 1.0pct and 3.6pct respectively. In 21q4, the market maintained consolidation shock and continued structural market. The growth rate of the scale of equity funds was weaker than that of non commodity funds as a whole.
From the perspective of 21q4 shortlisted institutions and holding scale, among the top 100 institutions, securities companies have the largest number of shortlisted institutions, but the holding scale is the smallest and the market share continues to decline. A total of 46 securities companies were shortlisted in 21q4, but the market shares of equity funds and non commodity funds were 14.5% and 12.2% respectively, with a month on month decline of 0.8pct and 1.0pct respectively; The market shares of 31 banks were 58.6% and 52.8% respectively, and the non commodity based share fell by 1.5pct month on month; The market shares of third-party institutions were 26.0% and 34.2% respectively, with a chain comparison of + 1.2pct and + 2.4pct respectively. The channel capacity of securities companies is limited, the scale gap with banks and third-party institutions is large, and they are facing increasing competitive pressure.
From the perspective of the market concentration of 21q4 equity funds, the concentration of securities companies < banks < third-party institutions decreased month on month. The Cr5 of securities companies, banks and third-party institutions were 39.0%, 62.1% and 87.0% respectively, with a month on month ratio of -0.4pct, + 0.6pct and -0.9pct respectively. Among them, the proportion of equity funds of ant fund in third-party institutions fell deeply, reaching 1.3pct. The online channel advantages of third-party institutions in the head form a moat, and the concentration of mass customers is obvious. However, due to the layout of institutional businesses such as Jiyu fund and Huicheng fund and the bright growth of scale, the concentration of Q4 has declined.
Investment suggestions: the three main lines of wealth management are clear. 1) based on products, it is recommended to pay attention to securities companies with head fund subsidiaries and asset management companies, such as Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) . 2) With channel as the core, it is recommended to pay attention to the booming China stock market news of its Tiantian fund. 3) Service first. The head securities firm has a high customer base and service ability. It is recommended to pay attention to China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) .
Risk tips: 1) macroeconomic downside risk: macroeconomic growth slows down, affecting residents’ wealth accumulation; 2) Large fluctuations in the equity market affect the investment willingness of individual customers; 3) Regulatory policies exceeded expectations, and other asset prices fluctuated, diverting the asset allocation of individual customers.
