Industry tracking (2022.1.28-2022.2.4)
Single month sales fell year-on-year for seven consecutive months, and the decline has expanded under the high base. According to Kerui data, in January 2022, the monthly sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises (companies with comparable caliber) decreased by 47.0% month on month, 40.0% year-on-year, and the year-on-year growth rate decreased by 0.92pct compared with the previous month. The monthly sales amount of the top 100 real estate enterprises increased negatively year-on-year for seven consecutive months, with a year-on-year decrease of more than 35% for three consecutive months.
The year-on-year growth rate of each gradient slowed down comprehensively, and the growth rate of Top50 real estate enterprises continued to be under pressure. In January 2022, the monthly sales amount of top3, TOP10, top11-30, top31-50 and top51-100 increased by – 33.7%, – 33.3%, – 33.8%, – 34.6%, – 59.7% year-on-year; The growth rate was – 7.9, – 7.7, – 0.7, – 9.3 and 4.7 percentage points respectively compared with the previous period. The growth rate of Top50 continues to be under pressure, and small and medium-sized real estate enterprises show phased marginal improvement. The city’s prosperity declined rapidly and the decline was significantly expanded. According to the high-frequency transaction data, in January (as of the 28th, the data update of the Spring Festival holiday lagged behind), the transaction area of commercial housing in 63 cities was – 30.10% year-on-year, a decrease of 14.50pct compared with the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of the first, second and third lines was larger than that of the previous month. In the same period, the transaction area of second-hand houses in 17 cities was – 34.18% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.95pct compared with the previous month. Except for the marginal improvement trend in the first tier cities, the year-on-year growth rate of other cities increased. There is no trend improvement in sales, and the stability of demand side expectation needs the introduction of other supporting policies.
Under the pressure of high base, transactions in new houses, second-hand houses and land markets are weak
The weekly turnover of the new housing market was 5.47 million square meters, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of – 30.10%, a decrease of 14.50 PCT compared with the previous month; The accumulated inventory was 172.46 million square meters, the second-line decontamination accelerated, the first-line decontamination slowed down, and the speed of the third line and below was the same. The weekly turnover of the second-hand housing market was 1.18 million square meters, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of 3.95 PCT compared with the previous month (Note: the update lag during the Spring Festival, and the data of new houses and second-hand houses were as of January 28). The land market traded 6.2 million square meters this week, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 51.18%; The total turnover was 8.6 billion yuan, rolling for 12 weeks, with a year-on-year increase of – 43.44%; The national average premium rate was + 0.70%, rolling for 12 weeks, year-on-year -10.59pct. In terms of a shares, there is no data update during the Spring Festival. In terms of H shares, this week’s wind Hong Kong real estate index was + 3.09%, up 6.71pct from last week, ranking 6 / 11, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.25pct; The leading index of kroney real estate stocks was 3.82%, up 10.80pct from last week. (Note: there are two trading days for H shares this week)
Strategy: grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
The industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support. With the increasing pressure on fundamentals and credit in the first quarter, the demand regulation policy needs to be further relaxed; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Policy support and actual M & A are expected to continue to land. Suggestions: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Xuhui holding group; 3) High quality property management: Country Garden service, xinchengyue service, Greentown service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The downward cycle of industry sales begins; Administrative regulation remained high-pressure, and the pilot strength of real estate tax exceeded expectations
