Since 2020, the output and demand of China's electrolytic aluminum industry have achieved restorative growth. Policies such as dual control of energy consumption have further stabilized the capacity ceiling, and the supply structure is expected to be optimized. Under the joint influence of global economic recovery, loose liquidity and China's production restriction and reduction, aluminum prices continued to rise rapidly, corporate profitability improved, financial leverage was also optimized, and the overall credit fundamentals of the industry remained stable
The outlook of China's electrolytic aluminum industry is stable. China integrity International believes that the overall credit quality of the industry will not change significantly in the next 12-18 months.
Abstract
In recent years, electrolytic aluminum production capacity has gradually shifted to clean energy enrichment areas, and recycled aluminum may become the focus of development, and the supply structure of the industry is expected to be optimized; However, affected by the implementation of energy consumption double control and power and production restriction policies, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum has declined since 2021, the production of new capacity is limited, and the overall capacity ceiling has been further stabilized.
Since 2020, China's aluminum consumption has maintained a relatively decentralized structure; Although the current phased cooling of the real estate industry may have a certain impact on the amount of aluminum used in real estate, the expansion of the application of aluminum in new energy vehicle lightweight, UHV new infrastructure and other emerging fields can form a good supplement to the demand.
In 2020, aluminum prices showed a "V" shaped reversal trend; Since 2021, under the joint influence of global economic recovery, loose liquidity and China's production restriction and reduction, aluminum prices have continued to rise rapidly; However, since late October, the decline of coal price has weakened the cost support of electrolytic aluminum than expected, and the aluminum price has decreased rapidly, which may operate in a shock in the short term; At present, the cost per ton of aluminum is high, and the profit margin of the industry has narrowed.
Benefiting from the reduction of costs, electrolytic aluminum enterprises will realize profit growth in 2020; The continuous recovery of aluminum price makes the marginal repair of profitability and cash flow more significant in the first three quarters of 2021; In the case of abundant funds, aluminum enterprises increased debt repayment, the level of financial leverage further decreased at the end of September, the solvency was improved, and the credit level of the industry remained stable.
