Core points: the Fund Industry Association disclosed the 2021q4 consignment ownership data, and the scale of Q4 public funds in the whole market rebounded month on month. The growth rate of ant fund continued to exceed that of China Merchants Bank, and the growth rate of ant fund continued to be the fastest than that of China Merchants Bank; In addition, some urban and rural commercial banks and tob third-party fund consignment achieved rapid growth.
Overall, the growth rates of partial stock (stock + hybrid) and non monetary scale in Q4 were 5.6% and 7.2% respectively, both rising compared with the previous quarter. 1) The whole market of public funds: the growth rate of partial stock and non monetary public offering markets rebounded month on month. As of 2021q4 (since the fund industry association has not disclosed the overall market data of public funds in December 2021, this paper adopts the data of November 2021), the scale of stock + hybrid public funds has reached 8.47 trillion (mom + 5.6%), which has been growing positively for 12 consecutive quarters since 2019q1, and the mom growth rate is faster than that of the previous quarter (+ 1.8%); The scale of non monetary public funds reached 12.40 trillion (mom + 7.2%), with positive growth for 13 consecutive quarters since 2018q3, and the mom growth rate was accelerated compared with the previous quarter (+ 5.3%). 2) Concentration: the head concentration is generally improved. In 2021q4, the total shares of stock + hybrid Cr5 / CR10 / Cr20 / CR100 reached 35.4 / 49.3 / 60.9 / 76.3% respectively (month on month changes of 0.32 / – 0.05 / – 0.68 / – 0.52pct respectively), and the concentration of Cr5 increased; The total shares of non monetary Cr5 / CR10 / Cr20 / CR100 reached 31.4 / 42.5 / 52.4 / 67.1% respectively (month on month changes of 0.69 / 0.25 / – 0.07 / – 0.93pct respectively), and the overall concentration is increasing.
By industry: the third party still has the fastest month on month growth rate, and the driving share continues to increase. 1) Various types of institutions have different month on month growth rates, and the third party still has the fastest month on month growth rate. The month on month growth rate of the total holding scale of partial equity and non monetary banks was 4.0% / 5.7% respectively (it was – 0.5% / – 0.1% in the previous quarter), and the overall stability of banks was high; The month on month growth rate of the total holding scale of partial stock type and non monetary type of securities companies was – 0.4% / 0.8% (the previous quarter was – 10.6% / – 9.4%). Reviewing the quarterly data of 2021q1-q4 securities companies, it is found that the volatility is large, and we expect it to be related to the statistical caliber of data, such as the statistical caliber of net purchases in ETF and large collections converted to public offering; The growth rate of the total holding scale of the partial stock type and non monetary type of the third party was 10.0% / 16.7% (8.6% / 17.4% in the previous quarter), and the third party still had the fastest growth rate. 2) From the change trend of share in a single quarter, the share of third parties continued to increase, while the share of banks and securities companies declined. This trend is the same as that in the previous quarter. In 2021q4, the total shares of banks / securities companies / third parties / others reached 44.7/11.1/19.9/0.6% (month on month changes of -0.71 / -0.67/0.80/0.06pct respectively) in the stock + hybrid type, and 35.4/8.2/23.0/0.5% (month on month changes of -0.48 / -0.52/1.88/0.05pct respectively) in the non monetary type.
Changes in head companies: among the top five, Tiantian fund has the fastest month on month growth rate and the largest share increase, and the advantages of China Merchants Bank, ant and Tiantian fund are expanding. 1) The leading advantages of China Merchants Bank, ant and Tiantian fund continued to expand. Tiantian fund grew the fastest month on month, and its partial share exceeded that of ICBC to the third place. In 2021q4, the holding scale of the top five partial stock type China Merchants Bank, ant, Tiantian fund, ICBC and China Construction Bank was 7910 / 7278 / 5371 / 5356 / 405.5 billion yuan respectively, with shares of 9.3 / 8.6 / 6.3 / 6.3 / 4.8% (month on month change of 0.22 / 0.10 / 0.30 / – 0.17 / – 0.14pct respectively). The month on month growth rate of China Merchants Bank, ant and Tiantian fund was 8.3 / 6.9 / 10.9% respectively, significantly faster than that of ICBC and China Construction Bank, Among them, the growth rate of Tiantian fund is the fastest (+ 10.9%) month on month, and the share of Tiantian fund exceeds Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , ranking third; The top five non monetary ants, China Merchants Bank, Tiantian fund, ICBC and Bank of China have a scale of 12985 / 8701 / 6739 / 5963 / 499.7 billion yuan respectively, with a share of 10.5 / 7.0 / 5.4 / 4.8 / 4.0% (month on month change of 0.14 / 0.27 / 0.44 / – 0.09 / – 0.17pct respectively). The leading advantages of China Merchants Bank, ant and Tiantian fund continue to expand, of which Tiantian fund is still the one with the fastest month on month growth. 2) Tiantian fund has the fastest increase in partial share and non monetary share. Among the partial stock products, Tiantian fund grew the fastest (+ 10.9%) month on month, and the share of Tiantian fund exceeded Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , ranking third; Among non monetary products, Tiantian Fund (+ 16.5%) has the fastest month on month growth. 3) The advantages of China Merchants Bank, ant and Tiantian fund are expanding. With Tiantian fund surpassing ICBC in the share of partial stock products, the top three of partial stock and non monetary types are China Merchants Bank, ant and Tiantian fund. On the whole, the advantages of the top three companies are expanding. China Merchants Bank, ant and Tiantian fund show a strong trend with their own model characteristics and the cultivation of customers’ financial management mind. It is worth mentioning that we believe that in the fluctuating fund consignment market, the importance of investment and teaching + investment adviser in the future is prominent. Ant and Tiantian fund have put the fund investment adviser in a prominent position on the home page and introduced a large number of investment advisory products and services from fund companies. The retention scale brought by investment advisory products is included in ant and Tiantian fund.
From the perspective of month on month growth, differentiation is increasing, urban and rural commercial banks are growing rapidly, and the sales of some tob third-party funds on a commission basis maintain a high growth rate. 1) Banks: the overall performance of large banks and joint-stock banks is relatively flat, and some urban rural commercial banks have performed well and achieved rapid growth. Among them, the growth rate of partial stock products of GF, Jiangsu, Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Qingdao is relatively fast (respectively + 27.1 / 21.4 / 21.6 / 32.9 / 20.6 / 27.8%). 2) Securities companies: the differentiation is obvious. Among the securities companies with a consignment sales volume of more than 10 billion, galaxy, Guojun, Shenwan, Ping An, Changjiang, CICC and Everbright grow faster (respectively + 11.3 / 15.8 / 15.4 / 13.8 / 16.0 / 11.1 / 10.3%); In the continuous stage of the structural market of the equity market, the structure adjustment, resource allocation and assessment orientation of securities companies are inclined to wealth management to improve the overall competitiveness and stimulate the income and profit level, but the quantity of consignment sales still shows a certain volatility. 3) Third party: some small and medium-sized third-party fund sales companies achieved rapid growth. After the rapid growth of Jiyu, Huicheng and Hengtian Mingze in the last quarter, their performance continued to shine (respectively + 29.5 / 50.9 / 39.0%). It can be seen that tob’s agent sales institutions serving insurance, bank wealth management and other institutions maintained a high growth rate.
For details, please refer to the “10 trillion growth rate of wealth management industry” and the “21 trillion market value of wealth management industry” report. In addition, we expect that the scale of public funds will increase by 16.5% in the next 10 years, of which the growth rate of equity products will increase by 22% (see in-depth measurement | structural change of wealth management industry: product structure, rate change and investment advisory income for details). It is suggested to pay attention to China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) , Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) in banks; China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) and Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) in securities companies; Third party sales platforms with traffic advantages, such as China stock market news, ant group, etc.
Risk warning: the regulatory environment is becoming stricter; Intensified market competition; New business expansion was less than expected.
