Industry core view:
The Shenzhou Shenzhen computer industry index fell by 31.69%, ranking the 5th in the Shanghai and Shenzhen computer industry index with a decline of 3.69 million. We believe that the medium and long-term positive trend of the market remains unchanged. We recommend investors to pay attention to high-quality targets with strong performance certainty, and recommend high-profile segments such as industrial Internet, industrial software, information innovation, intelligent driving and network security.
Key investment points:
The action plan for digital village development (2022-2025) issued by 10 departments including the central network information office: digital village construction is an important branch of the digital economy and a key step to achieve common prosperity. The digitization degree of China’s areas below the county and township level is generally low, and there is broad space for digital infrastructure construction. The introduction of the action plan is expected to accelerate the progress of agricultural and rural digital construction, and the subdivided fields such as digital infrastructure, Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) and government informatization are expected to benefit.
The Winter Olympics will be fully digitized: the Winter Olympics will focus on the display of cloud computing, ultra-high definition video, artificial intelligence and other digital technologies. The full deployment of core systems to the cloud has greatly reduced the cost of IT infrastructure and shortened the application development and deployment process. Under the demonstration effect of the Winter Olympics, technologies such as cloud broadcasting and 5g + 8K video may be widely used in large-scale events to accelerate the development of related industries and track digitization.
The performance of the performance forecast of the computer industry is relatively differentiated: by the end of January, a total of 163 companies in the computer industry had issued performance forecasts. Among them, 76 companies achieved positive year-on-year growth, and the lower limit of predicted net profit of 48 companies increased by more than 50%.
The valuation of the industry is lower than the historical center, and the attention of the industry decreases: the average daily turnover of the last trading week was 78.827 billion yuan, and the trading activity decreased. From the perspective of valuation, PE (TTM) of SW computer industry has been adjusted to 40.92 times, which is 50.77 times lower than the historical average from 2016 to 2021. Last trading week, the performance of the computer sector was concentrated: 279 stocks fell, 13 stocks rose, and one stock was flat. The number of declining stocks accounted for 95.22%.
Investment suggestion: with the new infrastructure as the core, accelerate the process of cloud, intelligence and digitization of enterprises. Investors are advised to pay attention to high-quality targets with strong performance certainty under the high-profile sector. From the market and valuation of 2021q1-q3, the valuation of the computer industry has rebounded at the bottom. From the configuration of 2021q3 fund positions, the configuration of the computer industry is still low. From the performance of 2021q1-q3, artificial intelligence, information innovation, construction informatization, cloud computing and other fields perform well. It is suggested to focus on the changes of company orders and capital expenditure in relevant fields. We mainly recommend the fields of industrial Internet, industrial software, information innovation, intelligent driving and network security.
Risk factors: global geopolitical risk, technology promotion fails to meet expectations, and Industry IT capital expenditure is lower than expected.
