Industry logic:
Pattern of new energy automobile industry: two superpowers and more powerful, and new forces are rising. In 2021, the sales volume of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicles broke out and the penetration rate of new energy reached a new high. From the perspective of enterprise competition, the investment of vehicle enterprises in new energy in 2021 was unprecedented and the competition became more and more intense. At present, the Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) auto market has formed a pattern of “two superpowers and many strong forces, and new forces are rising”. The “two superpowers” are mainly Byd Company Limited(002594) and Tesla. The “many strong forces” are mainly traditional auto enterprises such as great wall, Chang’an, GAC and SAIC. The new forces of car manufacturing represented by “xiaoliwei” are rising rapidly..
Two super patterns are stable: Byd Company Limited(002594) vs. Tesla. Byd Company Limited(002594) is the leader of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile in China, and Tesla is the leader of new energy vehicles in the world. Byd Company Limited(002594) in 2021, 730000 vehicles were sold, including 594000 new energy vehicles, and 936000 Tesla vehicles were sold worldwide in 2021. In terms of models, Byd Company Limited(002594) new energy models have rich product lines, mainly Dynasty Series and the newly launched Ocean series. The product matrix is rich, covering all ranges of 50000-300000 yuan; Tesla has few new energy models, and its products are mainly medium and high-end, with a price range of more than 250000. Byd Company Limited(002594) and Tesla have their own advantages in technology. Tesla mainly relies on the integration of the global supply chain. It does have certain advantages in software, while Byd Company Limited(002594) relies on independent research and development. It is ahead of Tesla in terms of patent number, R & D capacity and safety. Motors, batteries and electronic control systems can be self-sufficient, mainly focusing on hardware.
How strong the aftereffect can not be underestimated: Chinese traditional car enterprises. With the rapid development of China Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile market, the response of traditional automobile enterprises is relatively lagging, but the development potential in the field of new energy vehicles can not be underestimated. Relying on the advantages of system and channel, traditional car enterprises are accelerating the pace of new energy. Among the top 15 new energy car enterprises in 2021, traditional car enterprises occupy 10 seats, accounting for an increasing proportion. We believe that traditional automobile enterprises have natural advantages in developing new energy vehicles. First of all, they have mature upstream and downstream supply chains and have accumulated technology for many years. Their product quality and reliability are quite high; Secondly, traditional car companies have production qualifications and have their own production bases. Most importantly, the traditional car enterprises have abundant funds, and there are almost no capital problems caused by the financing difficulties of new car manufacturers. Promote or reshape the market competition pattern of intelligent electrification; The establishment of new energy vehicle brand separation of traditional vehicle enterprises is expected to realize the reconstruction of brand strength and valuation system through its clear brand differentiation positioning with fuel vehicles.
New forces are rising: Xiao Liwei. Among the new energy vehicle enterprises, the new power vehicle enterprises, which were established around 2015, have become a force that can not be ignored. At present, the first echelon of Weilai, Xiaopeng and ideal, which are listed in US stocks, has been formed, and the second echelon is composed of Weima, Nezha and Zero run. From the sales data, the internal pattern of the new forces of car making is undergoing some changes, and the competition will further intensify in the future; Overall, the structure of the head team is relatively stable, the second echelon has the momentum of catching up from behind, and the new power brand is showing a diversified development trend.
Risk tip: the demand growth rate does not meet expectations, the risk of policy changes, and the deterioration of the competition pattern of the industrial chain.
