\u3000\u3000 Alpha Group(002292) (002292)
In 2021, internal assets were optimized, and the bottom of profit pressure was established due to cost factors such as external shipping and raw materials
Internally, in November 2021, the company will transfer the evil spirit to Shanghai magic power (station B) for 600 million yuan. After this transaction, the company will revitalize its assets, obtain sufficient cash and reduce the risk of goodwill impairment (about 448 million yuan less goodwill), which will help the company focus on the development and innovation of its core main business; At the same time, Youqi and the company will cooperate strategically in IP brand authorization, film and television project, toy derivation and cultural tourism project. Externally, in the first three quarters of 2021, the average shipping cost of the company's baby products and toys increased by 207% and 477% year-on-year, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 80 million yuan in the company's shipping fee; The cost of bulk raw materials has increased. Looking forward to 2022, the risk of internal goodwill impairment will be further released; The influence of external disturbance factors is weakening.
From 2018 to 2020, the revenue profit of the main business has not been increased. After 2021, the revenue of the epidemic increased by about 10%, the cost increased, and the profit was under pressure to increase the main business
From 2018 to 2020, the company's revenue was 2.84 billion yuan, 2.73 billion yuan and 2.37 billion yuan respectively (the year-on-year growth rate was - 22%, - 3.97% and - 13.15% respectively), and the profit attributable to the parent company was - 1.63 billion yuan, 120 million yuan and - 450 million yuan respectively; From the perspective of three-year dimension, the company's business declined. First, the internal structure was adjusted (the decline of the company's main business toys in 2018 was mainly due to the sales of "gyroscope" and other projects not meeting expectations, and the business policy was revised to withdraw the provision for goodwill impairment); Second, in 2019, the content will be king and high-quality, and the main business will optimize the cost control to help the profit turn around at different stages; Third, in 2020, affected by the epidemic, the growth rate of income declined, and the loss of external investment superimposed the impairment loss resulted in profit loss; Fourth, in October 2021, the company completed the main business of fixed increase fund-raising of RMB 540 million, and the revenue in 2021 was about RMB 2.61-2.7 billion (a year-on-year increase of 10.2% to 14%). However, the profit was under pressure due to the rise of the cost of external shipping and raw materials. It was estimated that the parent company's profit loss in 2021 was RMB 350-398 million, the loss narrowed, and the non loss deducted was RMB 426-474 million, The provision for impairment loss is about 100 million yuan (mainly about 50 million yuan for inventory falling price reserves and 43 million yuan for impairment loss of long-term equity investment).
In 2022, the main industry of new volume empowerment focuses on the elasticity of film business, and the new volume can be expected
As a leading company of Chinese animation toys, it has been deeply rooted in the local market for many years, from simple manufacturing and authorization to originality, and has carried out whole industry development around IP, creating and accumulating many well-known IP images. The in-depth development of the "IP + whole industry chain" cooperation mode, from IP operation to back-end tide play manual derivation, long-term boutique operation, and practice from "product creation" to "industrial manufacturing". In 2022, the National IP pleasant goat landed on the big screen and subsequent film release is expected to bring performance flexibility (the company jointly launched the first tide play collection of pleasant goat IP with Kaitian studio, lightning pleasant goat); In the new business end, under the new media of NFT digital products, the company relies on the advantages of IP to sell digital collections on Ali (whale probe) and pill card platforms, which has achieved good results, and further opened the long tail realization of the company's high-quality IP.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.61 billion yuan, 2.99 billion yuan and 3.34 billion yuan respectively, the profit attributable to the parent company will be -380 million yuan, 139 million yuan and 291 million yuan respectively, the EPS will be -0.26 million yuan, 0.09 million yuan and 0.2 yuan respectively, and the current share price corresponding to PE will be - 22, 61 and 29 times respectively. Based on the company's own content brand market influence and good cooperative relationship with distributors, it will lay a solid foundation for further development. At the same time, From the impact of the epidemic to the recovery after the epidemic in 2020-2021, it is obvious from the income angle. From the profit side, the company is expected to turn losses into new ones under the increase of new incremental business in 2022-2023, and then give the "recommended" investment rating.
Risk tips
Market competition intensifies risks; Risk of IP development falling short of expectations; The risk of goodwill impairment caused by poor performance; Management risks caused by rapid business expansion; The risk that the sales of new toys are less than expected; Risk of insufficient human resources; Macroeconomic fluctuation risk.
