\u3000\u3000 Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (600872)
Key investment points
Event: the company released]2021 performance express, realizing a revenue of 5.12 billion yuan, basically flat; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 750 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.4%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.9%.
The condiment business has gradually warmed up, and the income of real estate projects has increased. 21q4 Meiweixian subsidiary is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.7%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.6%; The parent company also contributed part of the performance due to the recognition of real estate project income. The condiment business of 2021q4 company has gradually returned to normal, mainly due to: 1) the fourth quarter is the peak season of traditional dynamic sales of condiments, and the consumer demand is in a recovery trend; 2) Affected by the company's price increase in November, dealers have a positive willingness to take goods, and the channel stock has increased; 3) Since the second quarter, affected by the repeated epidemic and the low price competition of community group purchase, the channel has a large backlog of inventory and the price has been damaged. The company has opened the channel reform. After entering Q4, the channel inventory level has returned to benign and the channel confidence has also been restored. The company's condiment revenue is expected to achieve more than double-digit growth in 22 years under the pressure of increasing prices and combing the price system and gradually reducing the superimposed cost.
The cost of raw materials continued to rise, and the net interest rate of Q4 improved. In 2021, the net interest rate of the company was 14.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.7pp, of which the net interest rate of 21q4 was 22.7%, a year-on-year increase of 5.8pp; The annual / 21q4 net interest rate of Meiweixian was 13.1% / 15.6% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -4.2pp / + 0.6pp. The continuous rise in the prices of raw materials such as soybeans and packaging materials is the main factor to suppress the company's annual net interest rate. The improvement in the net interest rate of main business in the fourth quarter may be related to the offset of part of the company's channel expenses against the sales revenue rather than directly included in the expenses. In 2022, as the company continued to control the investment of expenses, the price of superimposed raw materials tended to be stable, and the profit side of the company was expected to increase.
Capacity expansion + equity incentive is expected to be implemented, and the fundamentals are continuing to improve. At present, there are fierce competition and demotion in the condiment industry. The company actively promotes a number of reforms: 1) in terms of capacity, it is estimated that the output of 170 thousand tons of soy sauce will be released during the three expansion phase of the company's kitchen state. The production and upgrading of the Zhongshan plant will release about 270 thousand tons of energy. Yangxi Meiweixian factory will gradually expand its production according to the sales progress of cooking wine, oyster sauce and other categories. At present, the company's catering volume is limited by the production capacity. With the implementation of new production capacity, the rapid volume of catering products can be expected. 2) The equity incentive plan is steadily advancing. In 21 years, the company has used 980 million yuan to complete two phases of share repurchase. If the equity incentive is implemented, it will fully boost the morale of employees and lay a solid foundation for the long-term and steady development of the company.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.80 yuan, 0.95 yuan and 1.16 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 48 times, 40 times and 33 times respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, covid-19 epidemic recurrence risk, and intensified industry competition risk.
