\u3000\u3000 Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (300979)
VF and puma were the third and fourth largest customers of Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) respectively. 21q1-3 Huali's revenue from VF was 2.453 billion yuan, an increase of 9.4% at the same time, accounting for 19.41% of the total; The revenue from puma was 1.402 billion yuan, an increase of 23.7% at the same time, accounting for 11.1% of the total. Recently, VF and puma successively released the latest financial reports, which maintained steady growth on the whole, and vansfy22 still maintained the revenue growth guidance of more than 20%.
The revenue of VF fy22q3 was USD 3.6 billion, with an increase of 22% and vans increased by 8%, and the growth rate increased month on month
Vffy22q3 (2021 / 10 / 3-2022 / 1 / 1) had a revenue of US $3.624 billion, about RMB 23.195 billion (excluding exchange rate, the same below), with an increase of 22%, of which acquisition contributed about 6%. In addition, EMEA and North America grew rapidly; The net profit was US $518 million, about RMB 3.314 billion, an increase of 49%.
By category, the revenue of active (including vans, supreme, etc.) was US $1.411 billion, about RMB 9.027 billion, an increase of 26% at the same time, accounting for 39% of the total; The revenue of outdoor (including the north face, timberland, etc.) was US $1.928 billion, about RMB 12.341 billion, an increase of 23% at the same time, accounting for 53% of the total; The revenue of work (including Dickies and timberland Pro) was US $285 million, an increase of 5% at the same time.
By brand,
The revenue of fq2 and ultra-range shoes increased significantly, accounting for 227% of the revenue of fq2 and ultra-range shoes; At the same time, vans clothing increased by 29%, mainly due to the increased attention of young series; As of fy22q3, the number of vans members was close to 21 million, with a year-on-year increase of 48%, and the membership base expanded steadily.
The revenue of vans Asia Pacific region decreased by 18% year-on-year and that of Greater China decreased by 26%, mainly due to the Limited passenger flow of stores during the epidemic period and the cancellation of orders by some wholesalers. This trend may continue during the Beijing Winter Olympics; The number of members increased well, and about 450000 new members were added during double 11 and double 12.
2. The north face fy22q3 had a revenue of US $1.2 billion, an increase of 27% at the same time, and the selling out rate of non coat series was strong; Among them, the Asia Pacific region increased by 25%, Greater China increased by 30%, online discounts improved, gross profit margin increased significantly, and the revenue increased by more than 60% during double 11.
3. Fy22q3 timberland's revenue increased by 11%, including a decrease of 12% in the Asia Pacific region.
4. Dickies increased by 4% and the United States increased by 30%, but the Asia Pacific and EMEA regions were under pressure.
In terms of regions, the revenue of the United States increased by 24%, and that of the Americas increased by 24% except the United States; EMEA increased by 28% at the same time; The Asia Pacific region increased by only 3%, of which 9% in the Greater China region and 12% in the Chinese mainland.
By channel, the revenue of DTC channel increased by 30%, of which the revenue of e-commerce increased by 21%. As of January 1, 2022, the group had 1354 offline DTC stores, a year-on-year decrease of 42. At present, most of the stores are in operation; Wholesale channels increased by 14% at the same time.
The profitability has improved. The adjusted gross profit margin of vffy22q3 increased by 0.6pct to 56.3%, of which 0.2pct was due to the increase brought by the acquisition, and other main factors were the reduction of promotion, which made up for the increased transportation expenses. After adjustment, the operating profit margin increased by 2.3pct to 17.7%, of which the acquisition brought an increase of 0.5pct.
VF supply chain tension continues. In terms of manufacturing, most of VF's supply chains are already in operation. Affected by the epidemic, the production capacity is still limited, but it has been alleviated to some extent. The group is expected to return to near full production in the next few weeks; In terms of logistics, the delivery date of goods is still affected by port congestion, equipment shortage and other problems.
Fy22vans growth guideline was 21-22%, the growth rate of outdoor series was increased, and fy22 annual performance was slightly reduced
VF lowered fy22's annual revenue guidance from US $12 billion to US $11.85 billion, about 75.836 billion yuan, an increase of about 28%, of which supreme is expected to contribute about US $600 million, about 3.84 billion yuan.
By category, the group raised the expected growth rate of outdoor from 25 ~ 27% to 26 ~ 28%, of which the growth rate of TNF is expected to be 29% ~ 30%; The expected growth rate of active continued to decline to 31 ~ 33%, compared with 35 ~ 37% previously, of which the expected growth rate of vans was 21% ~ 22%;
In terms of regions, the Group expects the revenue growth in the Asia Pacific region to be 7 ~ 9% (previously 12 ~ 14%), us33% ~ 35%, EMEA 28 ~ 30%, and the Americas except the United States to be 33% ~ 35%.
Previously, puma, a world-famous sports brand, released a performance express. Thanks to the continued brand growth and strong global demand, puma's revenue and EBIT reached a record high. The company preliminarily calculated that fy21 (2021 / 1 / 1-2021 / 12 / 31) had an annual revenue of 6.805 billion euros, about 51.671 billion yuan, an increase of 32% at the same time; Fy21q4's revenue was 1.767 billion euros, about 13.417 billion yuan, an increase of 14%.
Maintain profit forecast and give buy rating
Since 2021, countries and regions have had some experience in the control of covid-19 pneumonia. Vaccination has accelerated, the global economy has shown a distinct scene of recovery and differentiation, and the post epidemic sports demand and sports shoe consumption have continued to recover. As the company has strong new product development ability, it can quickly respond to changes in customer demand, expand production capacity through a variety of measures such as new factories, expansion of factories and the implementation of lean production, improve the operation efficiency of factories, and attract sports brands to increase orders to the company. In 2021, the company's revenue increased rapidly, the gross profit margin increased, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased significantly.
Huali's long-term cooperative customers maintain stable growth and are expected to provide sufficient orders for Huali; At the same time, most of Huali's factories are located in North Vietnam, where the epidemic is relatively mild. With the gradual normalization of epidemic control in Vietnam, it is expected to continue normal production, so as to stabilize the supply chain and obtain more order shares.
We expect the company's EPS to be 2.3, 2.9 and 3.6 yuan / share in 21-23 years, and PE to be 38, 30 and 24 times respectively.
Risk tip: the order is not as expected, the cost increases, the loss of core executives, repeated overseas epidemics and other risks.
