\u3000\u3000 Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (300750)
Key investment points
Q4 new production capacity accelerated climbing, and shipment and sales increased month on month
The output of q1-3 power and energy storage batteries of the company has reached 103.54gwh, the sales volume is 73.43gwh, and the inventory and goods issued are expected to be more than 30gwh. From January to September, the production capacity is 106.41gwh. After the capacity climbs at the end of the year, the design capacity is annualized at 220-240gwh. The Q4 output is expected to be close to 50gwh and the annual output is close to 155gwh. According to the industry’s practice of Centralized Settlement at the end of the year, the revenue and sales volume recognized in Q4 is expected to be close to 65-70gwh.
Large amount of energy storage battery system, optimize product structure and enhance profitability
The revenue recognized by q1-3 energy storage is 8gwh, and the cycle of energy storage projects is longer. The projects accumulated in the early stage are expected to focus on the revenue recognized by Q4, and the annual sales volume is expected to reach 14-16gwh. The gross profit margin of energy storage in the first three quarters reached 36%, 13 PCT higher than that of power battery, and the cost transmission of project-based mode is more flexible. In addition, the price of power battery is also properly linked at the end of the year, and the comprehensive gross profit margin is expected to improve marginally. In 2022, the global energy storage demand is expected to usher in a new round of high growth. The company’s product cycle / capacity / thermal management and other performance are superior. Some large-scale benchmark projects in the world specify the use of the company’s products. It is expected that the energy storage shipment will reach 40-50gwh this year, and the product structure will be further optimized.
China’s installed capacity share continued to consolidate and overseas installed capacity share increased significantly
According to the statistics of battery alliance, the output of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery in 2021 is 200gwh (the company’s share is expected to be close to 70%), and the installed capacity is 155gwh, of which the company’s installed capacity is 81gwh (the share is close to 52%). According to SNE statistics, from January to November 2021, the company installed 67.1gwh worldwide (29% share, nearly 5pct higher than that in 2020). In 2022, under the tight situation of upstream production capacity, the company’s excellent supply chain management ability will further give play to its advantages, ensure production and supply through long-term association / equity participation, and drive Tieli to go to sea and other high-end customers with the help of T, and the global share is expected to further increase.
Profit forecast and valuation
The company comprehensively arranges technologies such as power exchange, circulation and sodium electricity, and continuously improves the integrated layout. At the same time, with high-quality performance and strong supply management ability, the company has stronger bargaining power. In addition, the company’s cost management capacity / large-scale production scheduling capacity will also play a further role. In 2022, when the whole industry chain is under pressure, the actual performance is expected to be better than the previous pessimistic expectation of the market. It is estimated that the company’s performance from 2021 to 2023 will reach RMB 15.07/28.9/42.49 billion, and the current PE is 92 / 49 / 33 times. Maintain the “buy” rating and continue to firmly recommend.
Risk tips
The market development is less than expected, the production capacity is less than expected, and the price transmission of raw materials is less than expected.
