\u3000\u3000 Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) (688185)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and the annual operating revenue is expected to be 420 million yuan ~ 4.4 billion yuan. The year-on-year increase is 16774% ~ 17577%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.85 billion ~ 2 billion yuan, turning losses into profits. It is expected to realize a net profit of 1.74 billion yuan to 1.88 billion yuan, turn losses into profits, and the company's performance is in line with market expectations.
Covid-19 vaccine is rapidly and massively distributed, and overseas exports increase rapidly. Quarter by quarter, the company is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.11 billion yuan to 1.31 billion yuan in Q4, a significant increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 520 million yuan to 670 million yuan, turning losses into profits. It is expected to realize a net profit of 460 million yuan to 600 million yuan, turning losses into profits. The rapid growth of Q4 performance is mainly due to the company's large overseas export volume of covid-19 vaccine. According to the data of Tianjin Customs, the export volume of human vaccine increased significantly year-on-year in 2021. At present, China's sporadic epidemic is frequent, and the overseas epidemic continues to break out under the influence of Omicron mutant strain. It is expected that the demand for booster injection will still be sufficient in 2022. The company's covid-19 vaccine has been approved in 9 overseas countries, and the sequential inhalation dosage form is also actively carried out, which is expected to continue to contribute to the increment in the future.
The meningitis vaccine pipeline of the company was officially formed and is expected to contribute 100 million yuan of revenue. The company's mcv2 vaccine was approved and issued in 2021m9, and MCV4 vaccine was approved on December 29, 2021. Compared with other manufacturers, mcv2 vaccine of the company has good safety and immunogenicity. As the first four price product approved in China, MCV4 vaccine is not expected to have similar products on the market in the next few years, and the company has obvious first mover advantage. With Pfizer's sales team + independent sales model, the company's MCV series products are expected to occupy 10% of the neonatal market in 2022 as the first complete sales year, corresponding to an income volume of about 1 billion yuan. At the same time, relying on the large cash flow obtained by covid-19 vaccine, the company continues to increase its R & D investment, with a R & D investment of 110 million yuan (+ 58.2%) in 21q3. The company focuses on the layout of heavy varieties in the pipeline under research, such as 13 valent pneumonia vaccine in clinical phase III and PBPV vaccine in phase IA, which are progressing smoothly. It is expected to enrich the company's product categories in the future.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. The company's Q3 capacity release was less than expected, and Q4 returned to normal. Combined with the company's performance forecast guidelines, EPS is expected to be 7.49 yuan, 18.36 yuan and 25.09 yuan from 2021 to 2023 respectively. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: there is a lower than expected risk in the marketing of new products; Risk of R & D lower than expected or R & D failure; Covid-19 vaccine has the risk of significant price reduction in the future.
