St Guoyi (000516)
Performance review
On January 29, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company realized a revenue of 2.9 ~ 2.95 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent were 735 ~ 825 million yuan and 650 ~ 750 million yuan respectively. The revenue is in line with the expectation, and the net profit is lower than the expectation.
Comments
The impact of the epidemic in the second half of the year was great, and the annual revenue still increased by 82%. (1) Source of high revenue growth: in 2021, the company’s three major comprehensive medical hospitals, Xi’an high tech hospital, Xi’an Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) Central Hospital and Shangluo Xi’An International Medical Investment Company Limited(000516) Central Hospital, were fully put into use, the company’s medical service chain network was initially formed, the overall scale of medical service business was effectively expanded, and the volume of outpatient services, hospitalization and operating income increased significantly compared with the same period, With the new medical projects being put into use one after another and the influence of the industry increasing, the overall utilization of medical beds of the company is in the stage of rapid improvement, and the operating costs and period expenses are still at a high level compared with the operating revenue. (2) Source of increased loss: the income from changes in fair value of trading financial assets held by the company during the reporting period is preliminarily expected to have an impact on the company’s net profit of about – 115 million yuan; In the first half of 2021, the company implemented the restricted stock incentive plan and completed the grant registration. The impact of expenses incurred in the reporting period on the company’s net profit was about – 135.9 million yuan.
The continuous rise in the utilization rate of beds in central hospitals is still the most important concern in the future. (1) The central hospital is one of the three private first-class hospitals certified by JCI in China, and has passed JCI certification with high scores (9.89 / 10 points). (2) The hospital is equipped with the first Zeiss kinevo 900 Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) operating microscope in China and the first Siemens Magnetom skyra3 in Northwest China 0t intraoperative magnetic resonance imaging equipment (MRI), the fourth generation Da Vinci Xi operation Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , panoramic scanning pet CT uexplorer with the longest axis diameter and other medical equipment, more than 6500 sets (sets) and many other advanced equipment. (3) The central hospital has completed the filing of 8 professional drug clinical trial institutions such as respiratory, digestive, blood, tumor and neurology, and has cooperated with 18 well-known pharmaceutical enterprises and cro companies at home and abroad.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the company’s performance forecast and the impact of the epidemic and supervision, we adjusted the revenue forecast and adjusted the company’s sales revenue from RMB 2.8/55/6.8 billion in 2021 / 22 / 23 to RMB 2.9/4/5.8 billion from + 3.6% / – 28% / – 15% respectively; The net profit was reduced by 25% / 278% / 1% from -607 / 0.74/263 million yuan to -7.6 / – 133 / 260 million yuan respectively. We believe that the short-term impact of the epidemic and performance fluctuations are transient. The company is the target of the third class general hospital group with scarce A-Shares and verified the successful replication of its single hospital. It has both high barriers and growth. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips
Medical policy risk; Market competition risk; Talent shortage risk; The utilization rate of beds is lower than the expected risk.
