\u3000\u3000 Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) (300979)
Deckers is Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) the second largest customer. 21q1-3 Huali's revenue from Deckers is RMB 2.746 billion, an increase of 57.7%, accounting for 21.7% of the total. Deckers mainly owns ugg, hokaone, Teva and other brands.
Recently, Deckers released the latest financial report. On the whole, ugg grew steadily, Hoka and Teva grew rapidly, which is expected to provide the backbone for Huali's order growth. Specifically:
Deckersfy22q3's revenue was $1.2 billion, up 9.7% with strong brand demand
Deckersfy22q3 (2021 / 10 / 1-2021 / 12 / 31) had a revenue of US $1.188 billion, about RMB 7.589 billion, an increase of 9.7% (excluding the impact of exchange rate), a record quarterly revenue; The net profit was US $233 million, about RMB 1.488 billion, a decrease of 8.8%.
In terms of sub brands, the revenue of uggfy22q3 was US $946 million, about RMB 6.044 billion, an increase of 7.9%, accounting for 79.6% of the total; Hoka's revenue was 185 million US dollars, about 1.179 billion yuan, an increase of 30.4%, accounting for 15.5% of the total; Teva's revenue was US $21 million, or about 132 million yuan, an increase of 31.2%, accounting for 1.7% of the total.
In terms of regions, the revenue from the United States was US $796 million, or about RMB 5.086 billion, an increase of 3.3%, accounting for 67.0% of the total; The international revenue was 392 million US dollars, about 2.502 billion yuan, an increase of 27.5%, accounting for 33.0% of the total.
In terms of channels, the wholesale revenue was US $589 million, an increase of 7.3% at the same time; DTC's revenue was $589 million, up 13.4% and DTC's same store growth rate was 10.7%. The two channels of the company have developed in a balanced way, and the revenue from wholesale and DTC channels account for half respectively.
Raise fy22 guidelines and expect annual revenue of US $3.03 ~ 3.06 billion
Deckers slightly raised fy22's annual guidelines, and it is expected that the revenue will increase by 19% ~ 20% to US $3.03 ~ 3.06 billion, about RMB 19.359 ~ 19.551 billion; Fy22q4 is expected to increase by 9.7% ~ 15.1% to US $616 ~ 646 million, about RMB 3.934 ~ 4.125 billion. Fy22's annual gross profit margin is expected to be 51.5% and the operating profit margin is expected to be 17.5%.
Maintain profit forecast and buy rating
After the epidemic, the demand for sports and the consumption of sports shoes continued to recover. Recently, many major customers of Huali released financial reports. The growth of downstream brands is optimistic, and orders are expected to grow steadily; Moreover, most of Huali's production capacity is located in northern Vietnam, where the epidemic is relatively mild. With the gradual normalization of epidemic control in Vietnam, it is expected to continue to maintain normal production, stabilize the supply chain and superimpose strong product development capacity, which is expected to win more order shares for the company. We estimate that the company's revenue in 2021-23 will be 18.8 billion yuan, 23.5 billion yuan and 29.4 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 2.7 billion yuan, 3.4 billion yuan and 4.2 billion yuan respectively, the EPS will be 2.3, 2.9 and 3.6 yuan / share respectively, and the PE will be 38, 30 and 24 times respectively.
Risk tip: the order is not as expected, the cost increases, the loss of core executives, repeated overseas epidemics and other risks.
