\u3000\u3000 Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) (300785)
Starting with the shopping guide business, high-quality content and users are the core competitiveness. 1) As of 2019, the price of online shopping experience and content sharing services generated by the upstream and downstream e-commerce companies were 344.51% and 48.51% respectively, accounting for the price of online shopping experience and content sharing services, respectively. 2) High quality content and users have created advantages for the platform, and the underlying data has further consolidated its competitiveness. In terms of content: the platform has perfect incentive mechanism, has a large number of high-quality content (9.48 million in 2020), and most of the content comes from users (UGC accounts for more than 80%), and the content acquisition cost is low; Users: in the early stage, the platform accumulated a number of seed users who are keen on electronic products and willing to communicate, creating a good community atmosphere and user reputation. The platform has strong user interaction (131 times of single content interaction in 2020), and the retention rate is higher than that of peers. Data: using thousands of people and thousands of faces technology to reach users, a commodity database containing 190000 + brands and 6.8 million + aggregated commodities has been preliminarily constructed.
The advertising business complies with the trend of mobility and contributes to the growth. The ARPU value is gradually expanded, and there is still room to improve the current users and cash efficiency. The company began to vigorously develop the advertising business in 2014, and in line with the growth of the online advertising market and the trend of the transfer from the user website end to the mobile end, promoted the unit price of all kinds of advertising spaces. With the joint promotion of the industry, e-commerce and their own investment, the overall utilization rate of advertising spaces was strengthened, and the operation and liquidity were continuously optimized. 1) On the one hand, there is still room to improve the company's users and liquidity efficiency: according to questmobile, the average number of active users of xiaohongshu in 2020 is about three times that of Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) platform; The tiktok / Kwai user single user day is 5-10 times longer than the company's ARPU. 2) On the other hand, although the vertical content platform has a head concentration trend, its flow realization will eventually face the problems of commercialization and the balance of minority community atmosphere.
"Content + service + data" three wheel drive, opening the conic and a new journey. In 2021, the company carried out strategic upgrading. On the basis of adhering to the core of consumer content, the company deeply laid out the three core sectors of consumer content, marketing services and consumer data, and opened a quadratic curve and a new journey. Of which:
1) consumption content. In line with the trend of video, category expansion and user sinking, the "what Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) " app is upgraded in the station, the category structure is optimized, the layout of short video and live broadcast is increased, and access pinduoduo helps sink. Under multiple measures, Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) user scale and stickiness increased (the growth rate of user scale increased from 10.5% to 14.0% from 2018 to 2020), helping the synchronous development of the company's Commission and advertising business; Consumer MCN "multiple channels" are arranged outside the station to create a consumer content account matrix, sign contracts and incubate talents, undertake various video services, and help the company's advertising business in the short term.
2) marketing services. ① People and goods matching: with the rapid growth of live e-commerce, the anchor at the lower waist and tail has a strong demand for high-quality supply chain platform. It is estimated that the revenue volume of the track is 60-70 billion yuan. Xingluo people and goods matching business undertakes Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) brand gene, allowing Lida people to expand rapidly, precipitate data in the future, improve matching efficiency, and have broad space for long-term growth. ② Agent operation: shake up the e-commerce and increase the volume quickly. The company xingluohe is helpful to undertake Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) business. As the head DP, Xingluo has all-round advantages in operation, service and investment promotion, forming stable customers such as platform and international brands, and actively expanding Chinese brands; It helps to get exclusive exclusive authorization of Nanji E-Commerce Co.Ltd(002127) in tiktok channel.
3) data service. The company's consumption content and marketing service sectors precipitate consumption data and feed back the businesses of the two sectors. For a long time, it will be independently output through the consumption big data industry research institute, value consumption insight platform and Beijing Zhidemai Technology Co.Ltd(300785) consumption information opening platform, so as to build a long-term new growth pole.
Investment suggestions: the company's original business will adapt to the trend of transformation, constantly improve the content ecological construction, open up new growth space, and is expected to maintain steady growth; With the Kwai Chung tiktok and other fast growing business background, we expect the company to increase its net profit to 1.8/2.4/3.0 billion yuan, corresponding to EPS 2.0/2.7/3.3 yuan, and the current price corresponding to PE is 32X/24X/19X, which is expected to increase rapidly in the new business development. Based on the segment valuation method, we get the company's target market value of RMB 7.63 billion in 2022, the corresponding target price is RMB 85.9, corresponding to pe32x in 2022, and give a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk warning: new business expansion is not as expected; Industry competition intensifies; Changes in e-commerce platform policies; Policy supervision risk.
