\u3000\u3000 Qumei Home Furnishings Group Co.Ltd(603818) (603818)
Key investment points
Evergrande's impairment + production restrictions were slightly dragged down, and its operating conditions continued to improve month on month
Based on the median, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 is 61 million yuan (yoy-16%, QoQ + 15%), which is mainly due to the high base of 20 years and the production restriction of the Southeast Asian epidemic. The company's Q3 plant in Southeast Asia was shut down under the influence of the epidemic, and Q4 gradually recovered, but the production is still limited to a certain extent. The overall operation is better month on month. We expect that 22q1 will be further improved. In addition, the impairment of Evergrande's accounts receivable has dragged down Q4's performance. 21q3 company has accrued an asset impairment loss of RMB 20.2 million (mostly Evergrande's accounts receivable, with a balance of RMB 37.08 million at the end of 21). It is expected that Q4's further accrual will affect the current performance. After the continuous impairment of q3-q4, Evergrande's accounts receivable risk has been gradually released, and the superimposed operation has continued to improve month on month since the bottom of 21q3, 22 years is expected to meet the performance turning point.
Ekornes has sufficient growth momentum, and its revenue and profits in the past 22 years are expected to increase further
In 2018, the company acquired Ekornes. In 2019, Ekornes achieved a revenue of 2.45 billion yuan and a net profit of 228 million yuan. After the company replaced Ekornes management and gave sufficient incentives in 20 years, Ekornes entered the stage of large-scale revenue and accelerated profit improvement. Under the influence of the epidemic in 20 years, the revenue increased by 3% and the net profit increased by 11%. In the past 21 years, the company has achieved rapid growth by expanding large customers with img brand, developing new products outside the recliner and developing the Chinese market. We expect to achieve revenue of 3.5 billion yuan (+ 39%) and net profit of 410 million yuan (+ 46%). In the past 22 years, the expansion of customers, products and markets is expected to further drive Ekornes's massive growth:
(1) customers: we have successfully obtained Costco and other large customers in 21 years. It is expected that with the deepening of cooperation, the revenue contribution in 22 years is expected to double.
(2) products: relying on stressless's top brand strength and global channel resources, the company actively develops software sofa and other supporting products. It is estimated that the revenue of supporting products will reach 700 million yuan in 21 years (only 200 million yuan in 18 years).
(3) China market expansion: the company's store model is excellent and reproducible. The growth rate of 21h1 stressless Chinese orders exceeds 90%. In 22 years, China's market positioning will be upgraded to continental level, and the corresponding market investment will be increased. It is expected that the store expansion and revenue growth will be further accelerated in 22 years.
The growth of China Qumei was steady, and the decrease of financial expenses released the performance elasticity
It is estimated that China Qumei will achieve a revenue of 2 billion yuan (+ 22%) in 21 years, mainly due to the effective improvement of the company's private domain traffic operation and informatization ability, and the operation ability of direct business. The revenue of Direct stores increased by 40% (completely from the growth of the same store). In addition, it made efforts to innovate its business. In the 21 years of franchise business, it focused on solving the problem of "beautiful stores and right goods", and the revenue stopped falling and stabilized, Jointly drive the steady growth of China's business, which is expected to maintain the trend in 22 years. In terms of financial expenses, on the one hand, the company actively promotes debt replacement and reduces the interest rate. On the other hand, it reduces the debt level by introducing strategic investors and its own funds. It is estimated that the interest expenditure in 21-23 years will be 2 / 1.3/0.6 billion yuan respectively, releasing the performance elasticity.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the company will achieve a revenue of 5.53/6.56/7.45 billion yuan in 21-23 years, with a year-on-year increase of 29% / 19% / 14% respectively; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 250 / 50 / 690 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 143% / 99% / 38% respectively. Corresponding to the current pe27 / 14 / 10x, the company's operating margin continued to improve, ushered in an upward turning point in performance in 22 years, and maintained the "buy" rating.
Risk tips
Ekornes China's expansion is less than expected; The demand of overseas market is declining; The progress of debt replacement is less than expected
