\u3000\u3000 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (002352)
Event: the company issued a pre increase announcement of performance in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be 4.2 billion yuan to 4.4 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be 1.78 billion yuan to 1.93 billion yuan.
Comments:
It maintained profitability in 2021, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 increased year-on-year. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies of 4.2 billion yuan to 4.4 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 40% to 43%; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 1.78 billion yuan to 1.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 69% to 71%. In 2021, the single ticket price of the express industry decreased significantly, and the share of the company’s economic express products increased rapidly, which had a certain impact on the company’s gross profit margin. In addition, the company will increase production capacity investment in 2021 to alleviate the rapid growth of express delivery, with large expenses. 2021q4 company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to parent company of RMB 2.4 billion to RMB 2.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 39% to 50%, deducting the net profit not attributable to parent company of RMB 1.45 billion to RMB 1.6 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 41% to 56%, which is affected by the consolidated statement of Kerry Logistics.
Single ticket income was basically stable. In 2021, the express supervision policy was issued to guide the rationalization of express prices, the competition pattern of express enterprises was initially stable, and the single ticket revenue of the company was stable in the second half of the year. From October to December 2021, the single ticket revenue of SF express products was 15.92 yuan, 15.82 yuan and 16.43 yuan respectively, and the express price was basically stable. Under the impact of the epidemic, the start-up of enterprises is limited, but China’s economy is the first to recover, the online penetration of physical goods has increased rapidly, and new platforms such as fresh e-commerce and live e-commerce have sprung up, stimulating the growth of express demand. In December 2021, the national express delivery volume exceeded 100 billion pieces. As a third-party comprehensive logistics service provider, the company is expected to enter the emerging e-commerce market with high service quality. From October to December 2021, the express business volume of the company was 833 million tickets, 1027 million tickets and 938 million tickets respectively, and the business volume increased steadily.
Investment suggestion: SF four networks financing is advancing steadily, and zhongezhou Huahu airport is expected to be put into operation in 2022, so as to further improve product timeliness and strengthen competitive advantage. In the first quarter of 2021, the company increased expenditure to increase production capacity, resulting in losses, but its performance improved quarter by quarter. Kerry Logistics consolidated its statements, strengthened its supply chain and international logistics services, and accelerated the construction of SF integrated logistics system. The bottom of the company’s performance is determined and the company has entered the performance repair stage. It is expected that the earnings per share of the company from 2021 to 2022 will be 0.87 yuan and 1.47 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 73 times and 43 times respectively, maintaining the rating of “prudent recommendation” of the company.
Risk tips: intensified industry competition, policy changes, macroeconomic downturn, repeated epidemic, etc.
