\u3000\u3000 Jianmin Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(600976) (600976)
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the company is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 318 ~ 333 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 115% ~ 125%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 304 ~ 319 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of + 121% ~ 132%.
High performance, growth in line with expectations, 21q4 continued to shine. According to the median value of the forecast, the company realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 325 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 120%, which is fully in line with our previous expectations. In 2021q4, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 68 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 209%, which is higher than the year-on-year increase of 104% in the first three quarters of 21 years.
With the rapid growth of pharmaceutical industry business, core varieties such as Longmu Zhuanggu granules are expected to perform prominently. According to the company’s announcement, the company’s performance growth in 2021 is mainly due to the increase in the revenue of the pharmaceutical industry. It is expected that the revenue of the pharmaceutical industry will increase by about 44% year-on-year in 2021. The main driving force for the growth of the pharmaceutical industry is the company’s increase in advertising investment and market development, optimization of product structure and marketing team construction, and the increase in the revenue of main varieties of OTC product line and prescription drug product line.
According to the financial report data previously disclosed by the company and the split of our model, the company’s business traditional Chinese medicine business only contributes millions of net profits. The core profit source of the main business is the pharmaceutical industry. The revenue of the pharmaceutical industry is + 44% year-on-year, so the revenue of the pharmaceutical industry reaches about 2 billion yuan. Assuming that the net interest rate of the main business is basically the same as that in the first half of the year, the profit contributed by the company’s main business in 2021 is about 200 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 296%. Combined with the situation of the company in the first half of the year and the caliber of this announcement, we judge that the pediatric varieties such as Longmu Zhuanggu Granule, the core single product of the company, continue to grow rapidly, and the income of pediatric products exceeds 900 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%. It is expected that Jianmin Dapeng will continue to grow rapidly and steadily. The overall scale net profit of the company is composed of main business profit and investment income (mainly the investment income of joint venture Jianmin Dapeng). In our previous in-depth report, we predicted that in 2021, the company’s main business will contribute about 200 million yuan of profit, and the consolidated part of Jianmin Dapeng will be about 130 million yuan. At present, we still maintain this judgment. Based on this data and the single quarter investment income of associated enterprises disclosed in the company’s previous financial report, Jianmin Dapeng contributed about 36 million yuan of investment income in 21q4, with a slight increase on a ring basis and a year-on-year increase of more than 100%.
Profit forecast: it is estimated that from 2021 to 2023, the company will realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 330, 440 and 580 million, with a year-on-year increase of 120%, 36% and 31%. Corresponding to pe31 / 23 / 17x. We believe that the current stock price of the company is significantly undervalued, and the net profit attributable to the parent company of 270 million in 22 years is valued at 20x, that is, 5.4 billion yuan, superimposed with Jianmin Dapeng’s 11.7 billion yuan. The estimated equity value is about 17.1 billion yuan (see the previous in-depth report for details). Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: growth depends too much on core large single products; The growth rate of Jianmin Dapeng pharmaceutical industry slowed down; Intensified OTC market price competition; Rising raw material prices have led to lower gross profit.
