\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132)
Event: under the reference standard, the company achieved a revenue of 13.119 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 19.90%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.188 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.382 billion yuan; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 1.143 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.14%. In 2021q4, the revenue was 1.933 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.08%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 122 million yuan, up from – 07 million yuan in the same period last year; The net profit attributable to the parent company after non deduction was 117 million yuan, up from – 19 million yuan in the same period last year.
Q4 sales volume was affected by the epidemic, and the average price still maintained steady growth. In 2021, Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) sales increased by about 15% year-on-year to 2.79 million kiloliters, mainly benefiting from the large volume of high-end single products such as Wusu and 1664 and the development of big city strategy. Among them, the sales volume of 2021q4 was 370300 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of – 2.67%, mainly due to: (1) the repeated and obvious epidemic since the fourth quarter, which had a great impact on the current drinking channels; (2) After the epidemic situation in Xinjiang recovers in 2020q4, the sales base is high. In 2021, the company’s revenue per ton of wine increased by 4.26% year-on-year to 4707 yuan / kiloliter, of which the revenue per ton of wine in 2021q4 increased by 3.85% year-on-year to 5219 yuan / kiloliter, which still maintained a steady improvement trend, mainly benefiting from the continuous high-end strategy. However, due to the impact of the epidemic on the high-end current drinking channels in the short term, the growth rate of revenue per ton of wine slowed down slightly compared with the first three quarters. We believe that the impact of the epidemic on the company’s sales volume is short-term. Benefiting from the continuous big city strategy, the company’s sales volume is expected to maintain a growth trend in the medium term and still have the logic of growth under the condition of stable overall production and sales volume of the industry. At the same time, the company has achieved remarkable high-end results. Although the short-term night show and other channels are affected by the epidemic, Wusu has grown into a large single product of nearly one million tons. At the same time, the company has many potential high-end single products such as 1664 and summer fun. In terms of ad valorem or ad valorem, the company performs well in the industry.
Under the epidemic situation, we should reasonably control the investment of expenses and turn losses in Q4. The profit of 2021q4 company turned around. We believe that it is mainly due to the pressure on the overall sales of the industry under the background of strong and repeated epidemic, and the company appropriately reduced the cost. At the same time, the company continued to promote the organizational structure optimization project and carried out the savings brought by the operation cost management project, which offset some of the adverse effects brought by the rising cost. With the cost pressure gradually reflected in the statement end, the company is expected to alleviate the cost pressure by raising prices.
Profit forecast: after Carlsberg asset injection, the synergy will be gradually reflected, and the profitability of listed companies is expected to be enhanced. Benefiting from the big city strategy, the company’s sales volume will maintain benign growth, continue to promote structural upgrading, and is optimistic about the large volume of Wusu. According to the company’s performance express, we adjusted the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 13.119 billion yuan, 15.489 billion yuan and 17.712 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.166 billion yuan, 1.442 billion yuan and 1.742 billion yuan respectively (the original forecast value is 1.110 billion yuan, 1.377 billion yuan), and the EPS will be 2.41 million yuan, 2.98 million yuan and 3.60 yuan respectively, corresponding to 55 times, 45 times and 37 times of PE, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning events: repeated global epidemics and slowdown of global economic growth; Food safety risks; Decline in sales due to irresistible factors; The deterioration of market competition has brought unexpected promotional activities
