\u3000\u3000 Vt Industrial Technology Co.Ltd(300707) (300707)
Event:
Announcement of listed company: sign investment intention agreement. The company plans to purchase appropriate industrial land use rights or lease appropriate industrial housing carriers in the administrative area of Qingcun Town, Fengxian District, Shanghai, and set up new subsidiaries. The proposed project is a new production capacity project of core parts of new energy vehicles.
The stamping parts business of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and the signing of investment intention agreement helped to expand production capacity in the future
According to the official website of the local government of Fengxian District, Shanghai, Qingcun town is located in the new area of the port free trade zone. The industrial park of the town enjoys the triple superposition support policies of the free trade zone, Zhangjiang and port area, which is close to a global new energy vehicle leading Shanghai factory. According to the previous performance forecast, benefiting from the rapid growth of a global leading sales volume of new energy vehicles, the company’s stamping business revenue increased significantly. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to reach 19-29 million yuan, accounting for 42% – 53% of the annual performance.
The profit of traditional main business is expected to reverse; Stamping parts / battery box / lithium battery equipment to build long-term growth power
1. Stamping parts: the compound growth rate of income in the next three years is nearly 100%, and there is a broad space in the long term. 1) The sales volume of important stamping parts customers increased rapidly; 2) The customer is expected to supply only Chinese factories to global factories; 3) The supporting value of single vehicle has the potential to double; 4) With the increase of welding proportion of stamping parts, there is room for improvement of profitability; 5) Strengthen the sales team of stamping parts and continuously develop new customers.
2. Power battery box: it is expected to be large in the second half of 2022, and the subsequent new fixed points can be expected. 1) The project fixed point of VF battery box assembly of a vehicle model has been obtained; 2) The market space is vast, and the market scale of China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) battery box is expected to be 30-40 billion yuan in 2025; 3) Actively explore new customers of power battery and vehicle factory.
3. Lithium battery equipment: Ningbo Jiuju (29% of which is held by Wuxi Weitang Industrial Investment Co., Ltd., a wholly-owned subsidiary of the listed company) is actively developing some new energy equipment.
4. Traditional stamping dies: basically exported to famous global auto parts manufacturers, with a compound growth rate of more than 10% in the next three years. 1) Molds are related to the number of models, and the number of new energy models has increased significantly in recent years; 2) Issue convertible bonds to realize the full category coverage of molds; 3) The sharp rise of freight and the impact of exchange rate appreciation are great.
Profit forecast and valuation
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 0.5/1.1/160 billion respectively, with a compound growth rate of 72% in three years; The corresponding PE from 2021 to 2023 is 52 / 25 / 16 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips:
The production expansion progress of stamping parts is less than expected, the competition pattern becomes worse and the risk of technical iteration; The newly signed order of battery box is less than expected; The research and development progress of new energy equipment is less than expected.
