\u3000\u3000 Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) (003012)
Event: the 2021 annual performance forecast was released on January 29 Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) . The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 7.516-8.590 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 5% to 20%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company is about 34 million yuan to 51 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.0% to 96.0%, and the median is 42.5 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95%. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is -357 to -340 million yuan, with a median of -348 million yuan, turning from profit to loss year-on-year. The increase of the company's operating income and the decline of profit in this year are mainly due to the company's provision for impairment of accounts receivable from customers in the real estate industry; The sharp rise in the prices of raw materials and energy leads to the rise in the comprehensive cost of products and other factors. As of December 31, 2021, the balance of accounts receivable between the company and customers in the real estate industry was 445 million yuan (for overdue notes receivable, it has been converted to accounts receivable accounting according to accounting standards), the balance of notes receivable was 191 million yuan, the balance of other receivables was 162 million yuan, and the total amount receivable was 800 million yuan. The management of the company analyzed and evaluated the recoverability of customer receivables in such real estate industry, and considered that there were signs of impairment, so corresponding credit impairment losses should be accrued.
Comments: the annual revenue maintained positive growth, the revenue of 21q3 / Q4 was flat year-on-year, and the growth was boosted by the optimization of product structure and the improvement of retail competitiveness. The price rise of raw materials + provision for credit impairment and other factors cause profit pressure, but do not change the long-term value.
On the income side, the company's overall operating income still increased under the influence of adverse factors such as repeated outbreaks outside China, the state's strengthened regulation of the real estate industry, the explosion of some real estate enterprises, the double carbon policy, power and production restriction, and the rise in the prices of energy and raw materials. In terms of channels, we expect the company's strategic engineering business to decline, which is due to the company's more cautious operation in the face of downstream risks; The company's retail competitiveness was further enhanced, the number of stores continued to grow and upgrade, and the customer unit value and floor efficiency of stores continued to increase. Among them, the revenue growth of Direct stores located in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Yunnan and Xi'an was significantly faster than that of distribution retail. In terms of products, the company continued to optimize the product structure and increased the proportion of high unit price rock sector in ceramic tile products. In the future, the company's "product + service" model will continue to improve product strength and brand strength.
Profit side: the sharp rise in the prices of raw materials and energy in the past 21 years has led to an increase in the comprehensive cost of products and a decline in the gross profit margin. According to the announcement on the price adjustment of the company's main products, the company has gradually raised the price in the second half of 21 years. We expect that the increase of the product sales price will have a positive impact on the company's operating performance and will gradually appear in the first half of 22 years. As the company made provision for impairment of receivables from customers in the real estate industry, the net profit margin fell sharply. We believe that the thunder explosion of some real estate enterprises is a short-term disturbance to the company's profits, and the company has fully accrued. Considering the steady development of the retail end and better cash flow, the event has a limited long-term impact on the company.
Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) : it has the comprehensive strength of channel, brand, production capacity, cost and products. In the follow-up, we will focus on the improvement of single store floor efficiency, and the number of dealers also has room for growth. The company insists on giving full play to the advantages of retail main battlefield, small and micro engineering and doing high-quality projects, focusing on developing and selling high-value products. It is in the stage of gradual and orderly expansion of production capacity and channel network scale, gradual deepening of brand influence and improvement of product and service level.
1) end C has a large market expansion space, which can ensure cash flow and profits, and establish the company's brand, which is the focus of the company's channel layout. In the future, the number of newly developed blank houses in the third and fourth tier market and the transformation and renovation of villas of first and second tier high-end customers will be large enough, and the market share of the company is expected to further increase.
2) small b-end is expected to grow rapidly. In the future, the company will enhance the competitive advantage of small b-end through product + service + innovation mode.
3) large b-end, the company focuses on developing customers with large volume and good qualification, and selects the best from the best.
Investment suggestion: since we expect the company to benefit from the recovery of retail market demand caused by the marginal slowdown of the impact of completion repair and fine decoration to the greatest extent, the scale effect brought by channel construction and capacity layout is expected to continue in the long run. The increase in impairment loss during the reporting period has put pressure on profits. However, due to the comprehensive strength of the above-mentioned companies in terms of channels, brands, production capacity, costs and products, and the strong channel and brand at the C-end, the small b-end is expected to maintain rapid growth, and the revenue and profit are expected to grow rapidly.
Profit forecast: considering the one-time impact of impairment, the short-term profit disturbance has been fully released, and the stock price has fully reflected the pessimistic expectation. As a leading enterprise in the industry, the accelerated development of the company at the retail end ensures abundant cash flow and profits, and the innovative development model promotes the rapid growth of small b-end. We are still optimistic about the medium and long-term growth space after the release of short-term performance pressure of the company. Due to the company's 21-year performance forecast, we expect the company to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 47 million yuan and 1.051 billion yuan (670 million and 1.14 billion yuan before adjustment) from 2021 to 2022. The current stock price corresponds to 317 and 14 times PE, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: the risk that the income increase is less than expected. Risk of sharp price decline caused by intensified competition: the risk of unit price decline of core customers caused by further intensified competition at the engineering end and retail end. Risk of accounts receivable: the operation and cash flow of real estate customers are affected by macro-economy, resulting in bad debt risk of the company's accounts receivable. The public materials used in the research report may have the risk of information lag or untimely update.
