\u3000\u3000 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572)
The company released the performance forecast. The revenue in 2021 met the expectations and maintained the “buy” rating. In 2021, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 10.023 billion yuan – 10.441 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20% – 25%, a net profit attributable to the parent of 100 million yuan – 150 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 91.61% – 87.42%, deducting a net profit not attributable to the parent of 20 million yuan – 70 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 98.09% – 93.33%. If the impact of credit impairment is excluded, It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent decreased by about 18% – 14% year-on-year, and the net profit excluding non attributable to the parent decreased by about 14% – 10% year-on-year; In 2021q4, it is expected that the operating revenue will decline by about 14.70% – 1.88% year-on-year, the net profit attributable to the parent will decline by about 251.22% – 241.12% year-on-year, and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent will decline by about 265.50% – 254.76% year-on-year. The income is in line with the expectation. The credit impairment leads to the pressure on the short-term performance, and the profit forecast is lowered. We predict that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 116 / 1563 / 1864 million (originally RMB 1354 / 1619 / 1930 million), the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.13/1.71/2.04, and the current share price will be 171.4/12.7/10.6 times PE. Considering the smooth progress of the whole customization business of the company, it is expected to bring large-scale performance, and the continuous optimization of retail channels is expected to further enhance the competitiveness of the company and maintain the “buy” rating.
In 2021q4, the bulk business declined, the packaged business led to retail growth, the credit impairment affected the short-term performance, the bulk business declined due to the tight cash flow of real estate developers, and the revenue of packaged and milanna performed well. On the profit side, the gross profit margin of 2021h2 has decreased due to the rise of raw material prices and profit giving dealers; The company plans to accrue special credit impairment loss on the receivables of a real estate customer. It is estimated that the credit impairment loss of the company in 2021 will increase by about 900 million yuan compared with the same period in 2020; The company continued to expand in all categories, multi-channel and multi brands, continuously increased marketing investment, and continued to increase sales expenses such as labor expenses and travel expenses, as well as marketing expenses such as advertising.
The whole customization strategy promotes the extension of categories. The whole brand makes efforts at the same time and optimizes channels to enhance the competitiveness of the company. The company issued the whole customization strategy, proposing 7 categories, 8 spaces and 10 matching standards for the whole customization, providing consumers with a more comprehensive one-stop package. The implementation of the whole customization is expected to drive the extension of categories and the improvement of customer unit value. Dealers in 2022q1 will upgrade their stores The whole customized products are expected to bring positive changes to the retail business and become a new growth driver of the company; The company continues to improve the category matrix and promote the four brands of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) , Simi, Milana and Huahe in all channels and categories, covering the high, middle and low-end markets; The company continues to optimize the supply chain, promote the development of information technology, continuously optimize the retail channels, and strengthen the assessment and management of dealers.
Risk tip: the recovery of industry demand, the expansion of new business are less than expected, and the product price adjustment is less than expected.
