\u3000\u3000 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572)
Event:
The company released the performance forecast for 2021: in 2021, the company achieved a revenue of 10.02-10.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20-25%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 100-150 million, a year-on-year decrease of 91.61% – 87.42%; Deduct non net profit of RMB 20-70 million, a year-on-year decrease of 98.09% – 93.33%.
Comments:
Provision for impairment of bulk accounts receivable, Q4 profit under short-term pressure. It is estimated that the net profit loss attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will be RMB 700-750 million, deducting the non net profit loss of RMB 720-770 million. Q4 profit loss is mainly due to the impairment of accounts receivable in bulk business. Affected by Evergrande event, the company’s credit impairment loss increased by 900 million yuan over the same period. After excluding the impact of Evergrande, the annual net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline by 12% – 16% year-on-year and Q4 by 59% – 69% year-on-year. The decline of Q4 company’s actual operating profit margin is caused by the rise in the price of raw materials and the increase in cost investment.
In 2022, young people’s clothing will enter the battle and look forward to retail and packaging. The company’s omni-channel layout, multi brand and full category combination are improving day by day, and launched the whole customization. The C6 plan aims to increase the average unit value of the terminal to 60000 yuan. With the arrival of marketing personnel at the end of 2021, enabling terminals, promoting market-oriented operation, the implementation point will be the charging system, and the retail force can be expected. In addition, in 2022, the direct sales and packaging and Milana will continue to grow, and the production efficiency will be improved.
It is estimated that the company’s EPS from 2022 to 2023 will be 1.59 and 1.84 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 13.6 and 11.8 times respectively. Considering that the company’s omni-channel layout, multi brand and full category combination are becoming more and more perfect, 22 young clothes are in the battle, and the retail and packaging can be expected to maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the prosperity of real estate is lower than expected, and the business promotion is lower than expected.
