\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Brewery Co.Ltd(600132) (600132)
Event: the company released the performance express in 2021, realizing a revenue of 13.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 38.8%; The non net profit deducted was 1.14 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 76.1%. Among them, 21q4 achieved a revenue of 1.93 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1%; The net profit attributable to the parent company turned losses into profits year-on-year, realizing 120 million yuan.
Q4 sales are impacted by the epidemic, and the price increase in the off-season is progressing smoothly. Since the fourth quarter, the company’s 21q4 beer sales are expected to decline slightly due to the frequent sporadic outbreaks across the country and the damage to the demand for catering and entertainment channels. However, since the third quarter of 21, the company has started to raise prices for different regions and brands. According to channel research, the price increase of the company in the off-season is relatively smooth, and the ton price increase has helped the company maintain positive growth in Q4 revenue. In terms of products, it is estimated that the annual sales volume of Wusu will reach 900000 tons in 21 years, including about 500000 tons outside Xinjiang, with a year-on-year growth rate of more than 50%; 1664 the annual growth rate is expected to exceed 35%; Lebao and Chongqing two large and medium-sized brands maintained double-digit growth. With the smooth transmission of price increase in 22 years, the cost side pressure of the company is expected to be relieved.
Optimize the internal structure of the team and stimulate the vitality of the team. The company has started the internal team structure adjustment. Since January 1, 2022, Carlsberg international brand unit (CIB) has added ten provincial markets with all channels and all brands, including the three northeastern provinces, the three northern provinces and central China; The business units in Xinjiang and Ningxia have added seven provinces with all channel and all brand operations, including Jiangxi, Shanghai and Zhejiang. After this major market adjustment, each provincial administrative region will be in the charge of a single business unit. On the one hand, the sales scope of each Bu will be divided by provinces, which will greatly improve the decentralized situation of multiple Bu in the past, improve the overall channel operation efficiency and form a joint force; On the other hand, each regional sales team has the right to use the “6 + 6” brand matrix, which helps to make full use of the strong potential energy of national single products such as Wusu and 1664, launch the product portfolio according to local conditions and improve the market channel penetration of each region.
The “6 + 6” product matrix is fully developed, and capacity expansion and transformation escort long-term performance. In terms of products, in 2022, the company increased the construction of Wusu series product matrix, and increased the market launch of Loulan secret brew, small bottle Wusu and black beer and white beer by taking advantage of the nationalization of Wusu; Continue to introduce 1664 new flavors and accelerate the replacement of parallel imported parallel goods; Continue to promote the upgrading of regional strong brands represented by Chongqing and Dali from the mainstream price band of 6 yuan to the high-end price band of more than 8 yuan; Summer has opened a comprehensive distribution of goods to seize the broad market of low alcohol wine. 2) In terms of production capacity, the company started the construction of Foshan factory, which is expected to be put into operation in 2024 and contribute about 500000 tons of production capacity, which will effectively alleviate the imbalance of production capacity between the East and the West. At the same time, the company continues to promote the technical transformation and expansion of the original factory, reduce costs and increase efficiency while alleviating the pressure of capacity shortage, and continuously improve the efficiency of the supply chain, so as to escort the steady growth of the company’s long-term performance.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.41 yuan, 3.12 yuan and 4.03 yuan respectively, and the corresponding dynamic PE will be 65 times, 50 times and 39 times respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk, covid-19 epidemic repeated risk, high-end competition intensified risk.
