\u3000\u3000 Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) (300888)
It is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be 7.9 ~ 8.2 billion, an increase of 75.07% ~ 81.72% over the same period in 19 years
The company expects a revenue of 7.9 ~ 8.2 billion in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 34.07% ~ 36.48%, an increase of 75.07% ~ 81.72% over 2019; Among them, Q4 revenue was 2.08 ~ 2.38 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.96% ~ 30.92%, an increase of 42.86% ~ 63.46% compared with 19q4.
In terms of business, the revenue of medical consumables (including cotton Spunlaced non-woven fabric) was 3.9 ~ 4 billion, a decrease of 55.16% ~ 56.28%, an increase of 159.23% ~ 165.88% over the same period in 19 years. The decrease in 21 years was mainly due to ① during the covid-19 epidemic in 20 years, the company's performance increased rapidly with the help of quality, supply chain advantages and quick reaction ability, and the price of medical protective products returned to normal in 2021, As a result, the business income and profit of medical consumables decreased significantly year-on-year; ② Overseas export sales revenue decreased by about 70% in 21 years. With the improvement of the company's brand awareness and channel coverage, the sales revenue of Chinese hospitals increased by about 10% and the sales revenue of e-commerce increased by about 55%.
The revenue of consumer goods for healthy living was 4-4.2 billion, an increase of 13.73% ~ 19.42%, an increase of 32.98% ~ 39.63% over the same period in 19 years. After excluding mask products with the same caliber, the revenue in 2021 was 3.9 ~ 4.1 billion, an increase of 22.69% ~ 28.98% year-on-year, mainly due to ① the good control of the epidemic in China in 2021, the number of offline stores of the company increased steadily, the consumer shopping demand was released, and the revenue increased by about 30% year-on-year; ② In 2021, the company's own e-commerce platforms such as wechat applet and official website achieved good results, and the revenue increased by about 40% year-on-year; ③ The revenue of tmall, jd.com and other third-party e-commerce platforms was flat year-on-year.
Excluding share based payment expenses, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.28 ~ 1.43 billion in 2021
The company expects the net profit attributable to the parent company to be 1.2 ~ 1.35 billion in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 64.57% ~ 68.51%, an increase of 119.66% ~ 147.12% compared with 2019; Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 was RMB 100-250 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.14% ~ 65.71% and a change of - 32.39% ~ 73.24% compared with 19q4.
It is estimated that the net profit deducted from non parent company in 2021 will be 1 ~ 1.15 billion, with a year-on-year decrease of 69.34% ~ 73.34% and an increase of 108.14% ~ 139.36% compared with 2019.
The company has implemented the employee stock incentive plan and raised a total share based payment fee of about 80 million yuan. If the impact of the above share based payment fee is excluded, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 1.28 ~ 1.43 billion in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 62.47% ~ 66.40%; Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 was 180 ~ 330 million, with a year-on-year change of - 37.14% ~ 16.43%.
Coordinated development of medical and consumer goods business, and acceleration of consumer goods business for healthy living
In the field of medical consumables, the company will expand its products in three areas: wound care, infection control and home care, and expand its market share and coverage through brand and product advantages and with the help of new customers and regions obtained through domestic and foreign channels in 2020; In addition, continue to increase investment in academic and clinical promotion, and expand the business of operating room consumables and high-end dressing products in hospital channels.
In the field of health consumer goods, it provides consumers with high-quality cotton products that meet the needs of different scenarios. Improve the efficiency of offline stores through strategies such as upgrading store image, optimizing customer shopping routes, improving scene display and creating experiential services.
Cut the profit forecast and maintain the buy rating
Due to the decrease of export revenue and gross profit margin of medical protection products, we adjusted the profit forecast. We estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21-23 years would be 1.29 billion, 1.56 billion and 1.87 billion respectively (the original value was 1.8 billion, 2.2 billion and 2.6 billion), the corresponding EPS would be 3.0, 3.7 and 4.4 yuan / share respectively (the original value was 4.2, 5.1 and 6.2 yuan), and the corresponding P / E would be 24, 20 and 16x.
Risk tip: the channel expansion is less than expected, the volume of new products is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified. The performance forecast is only the preliminary accounting result, which shall be subject to the annual performance announcement.
