\u3000\u3000 Yangling Metron New Material Co.Ltd(300861) (300861)
Key investment points:
The company resumed rapid growth. On January 11, 2022, the company issued a performance forecast. In 2022, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 684-836 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 52.11% - 85.91%. In 2019, affected by industry competition and the 531 new deal, the selling price of the company's products fell sharply. While the sales volume increased slightly, the revenue and profit decreased significantly. In 2020, the company achieved a net profit of 450 million yuan with excellent cost reduction ability, an increase of 10.30% year-on-year, and resumed growth. From the end of 20 to 21, the selling price of diamond line is relatively stable. In the first three quarters of 2021, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 56.81%, which is expected to remain at a high level of about 55% + in the next few years.
The company's business has obvious competitive advantages. 1) The company's products have strong competitive advantages in stability, cutting quality and process applicability. The production of diamond line has exceeded 36 μ m. Mainstream products in 40 μ m-42 μ m. Maintain a leading position in the industry. 2) Since 2017, it has maintained a leading position in market share and a stable leading position in the industry. 3) The product cost of diamond line is ahead of the industry, with good pricing ability, and the gross profit margin is also significantly ahead of other companies.
Diamond tangent business is expected to maintain rapid growth. 1) The business demand of the company is growing rapidly. In the next five years, the global photovoltaic installed capacity will maintain a rapid growth, and the thin line will increase the consumption of silicon wafer per unit. 2) The company's production capacity continues to expand. By the end of 2021, the production capacity will reach 70 million kilometers, and another 30 million kilometers will reach production in 2022. It is expected that the annual production capacity will reach 100 million kilometers by the end of the year. 3) The downward trend of sales price is expected to slow down. In the case of booming industry demand, smaller proportion of diamond line cost and slower speed of industry cost reduction, it is expected that the possibility of sharp decline in product sales price is small.
Profit forecast
Considering the future demand growth of diamond line business and the market share of the company, it is estimated that the sales volume of diamond line of the company will be 43 million kilometers, 64.3 million kilometers and 84.2 million kilometers respectively from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding business revenue of diamond line will reach 1.75 billion yuan, 2.35 billion yuan and 2.92 billion yuan. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 753 million yuan, 966 million yuan and 1.19 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 67.5%, 28.3% and 23.1% respectively. The corresponding P / E ratio is 32.9, 25.6 and 20.8 times. Considering the prosperity of the industry and the competitive advantage of the company, the "overweight" rating is given.
Risk warning: industry competition leads to the decline of product prices beyond expectations; The growth of industry demand was lower than expected.
