\u3000\u3000 Shanghai Athub Co.Ltd(603881) (603881)
The operation scale has been steadily improved and the project reserves are abundant. The company is deeply bound to major Internet customers. As of Shanghai Athub Co.Ltd(603881) 2021, it has provided double 11 data center operation and maintenance support services for major customers for 11 consecutive years. In terms of operation scale, in the first half of 2021, the company added 6 self built data centers with operation conditions. By the middle of 2021, Shanghai Athub Co.Ltd(603881) had built and operated 31 data centers, with a total it load of about 325.12 megawatts (MW), converted into about 65024 standard cabinets of 5 kilowatts (kw). In terms of project reserves, according to the existing announcements, the company currently reserves large projects such as Shanghai Minhang, Hebei Huailai and Hebei Langfang, with rich project reserves.
Ebitdamargin is an industry leader with improved profitability. The operation mode of the company is heavy asset mode, and the company will achieve EBITDA of 5.5% in 2020 4.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.78%; EBITDA in the first three quarters of 2021 maintained a growth rate of about 50%, and it is expected to achieve EBITDA of RMB 800 million in 2021. In terms of gross profit margin and ebitdamargin, the company’s gross profit margin and ebitdamargin have increased significantly from 2018 to the end of 2020 by + 10.12pcts / + 22.96pcts respectively. The company’s gross profit margin ranks second among comparable companies. Ebitdamargin surpassed Equinix to become the first comparable company in 2019, and the company’s ebitdamargin reached about 60% in 2020.
Follow the industry trend and grasp the core resources. In terms of supply and demand, the scarcity of land and power resources in first tier cities leads to the structural imbalance between supply and demand in IDC market. In the long run, IDC resources will still be in short supply in first tier cities. In terms of policy, in 2021, IDC’s policy orientation will shift from vigorously developing new infrastructure to dual control of energy efficiency and energy consumption. Relevant departments will pay close attention to the approval of energy efficiency and energy consumption in data centers to speed up the liquidation of old IDC. As a professional third-party IDC operator, the company has perfect and compliant approval procedures including energy consumption indicators, which has significant advantages in this industry background.
Deeply cultivate the third-party IDC service, and the operation capacity is leading in the industry. In 2020, the achievement rate of the contract service level commitment (SLA) of all data center customers of the company will be 100%, casting a good reputation in employment. According to the statistics of Uptime Institute, in 2020, the average pue of the global data center was 1.59, that of the Asia Pacific region was 1.69, and that of the United States and Canada was 1.53. The average pue of the company in 2020 was 1.4, which has reached the average level of developed countries.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company’s main business income from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 1.172/1.641/2.168 billion respectively, the net profit will be RMB 172/2.46/344 million respectively, and the corresponding EPS will be RMB 0.52/0.75/1.05 respectively. For the first coverage, 52 times PE will be given in 2022, the corresponding target price will be RMB 39.0, and the investment rating of increased holding – a will be given.
Risk tips: risk of dependence on key customers, risk of intensified industry competition, risk of project construction and delivery falling short of expectations, risk of epidemic affecting project progress
