Looking back at the stock market in the year of the ox, A-Shares ended miserably. The Shanghai index fell 8.03%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 16.50% and the gem index fell 14.79%. In particular, on the last trading day of the A-share lunar year of the ox, the three major stock indexes were divided and had twists and turns throughout the day. At the beginning of the session, the consistency of the stock index fluctuated lower, and the stock index plunged once. Under the protection of the big financial market, the stock index once bottomed out. However, in the afternoon, the stock index fell again and hovered at a low level. Finally, the three major indexes closed at a long negative.
As mentioned in Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , the collapse of the high-level group in January triggered a capital chain reaction, and the peak of market liquidity pressure before the festival has appeared; The credit inflection point still needs time to be verified. There are many highlights in the annual report forecast. At present, it is the bottom of the fundamental expectation; The effect of the long Spring Festival holiday is superimposed on overseas risk concerns. There is an excessive release of risk concentration before the festival, and the bottom of sentiment has also appeared. The policy bottom has long been clear. Under the resonance of “emotional bottom” and “market bottom”, the overshoot of A shares has brought a better time point for the layout in the first half of the year. It is suggested to actively layout around two low positions to meet the starting point of the market .
From a technical point of view, Anxin Securities said that the current market as a whole may be at the bottom. With the recovery of confidence caused by the recovery of peripheral stock markets during the Spring Festival, it is expected to usher in a wave of shock rebound . The nature of this round of market may be regarded as a b-wave rebound for the gem index. For the CSI 300, it may be a five wave upward market with shock. Although the gem refers to the rebound of wave B, it does not rule out that there will be a rebound worthy of attention for short-term oversold varieties, or varieties with performance catalysis or profit exceeding expectations in the short term.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that A shares are gradually digesting negative factors and are expected to rebound after the festival . 1) Overseas, the tone of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in January is “Eagle”, but the current market expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase is relatively sufficient, and the overseas policy shift will not restrict China’s monetary policy orientation; 2) In terms of micro liquidity of the stock market, public funds have started self purchase since January. At the same time, the purchase restrictions of popular fund products have been gradually liberalized, and the incremental funds after the festival are expected to flow into a shares; 3) During the Spring Festival, the overseas stock markets are in danger, China’s steady growth policy will continue to work, and the risk appetite of the A-share market will also be repaired; 4) At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is reasonable. The valuation of most Shenwan class industries is below the median since 2010, with a certain margin of safety.
As far as the future market is concerned, the agency further analyzed that A-Shares deduce “developing first and restraining later”, and look at the current round of spring market rationally. Since the beginning of the year, the risk appetite of A-share market has continued to weaken under the disturbance of overseas monetary policy tightening expectations and capital pre holiday risk aversion factors. During the Spring Festival, overseas stock markets were in danger, and most of the world’s major stock indexes rose. At the same time, China’s policy level repeatedly called for “steady growth”, and the market sentiment after the festival is expected to be repaired. In addition, the recent public offering, the opening of self purchase and the liberalization of purchase restrictions of popular funds will help the inflow of incremental funds into A-Shares after the festival. A shares are expected to meet the “oversold rebound” in February.
In view of the current hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve and the strong expectation of contraction of overseas monetary policy, the global risk assets will still be disturbed before the landing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in March. It is expected that A-Shares are still dominated by structural market. It is suggested to treat this round of spring market rationally. In terms of allocation, focuses on three main lines: 1) real estate and its upstream and downstream industrial chain benefiting from the marginal improvement of real estate policy; 2) Strong themes that benefit from policy (support), such as new energy (vehicle), digital economy and seed industry; 3) Pig breeding sector reversed at the bottom of pig cycle .
On the macro side, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that China’s economic prosperity fell slightly, the steady growth policy is expected to continue to rise, the overseas market generally recovered during the long holiday, and the A-share market is expected to stabilize and rebound . At the beginning of March, the “two sessions” paid attention to agricultural issues as usual, and factors such as policy, weather and cost were favorable for the rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices. After the epidemic factors gradually subside, the prosperity of tourism and transportation industries is expected to rebound. China’s policy of stabilizing growth and expanding domestic demand is conducive to the marginal improvement of the real estate and automobile industries. It is suggested to maintain a position of 80%, focusing on agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, consumer services, transportation, automobile, real estate and other industries.
In terms of operation strategy, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) said that on the one hand, grasp the undervalued repair market such as financial real estate, on the other hand, lay out “small high-tech” with long playing short and bargain hunting. for a long time, focus on the five directions of scientific and technological innovation . 1) New energy (new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, wind power, UHV, etc.), 2) new generation information and communication technology (artificial intelligence, big data, cloud computing, 5g, etc.), 3) high-end manufacturing (intelligent CNC machine tools, Siasun Robot&Automation Co.Ltd(300024) , advanced rail transit equipment, etc.), 4) Biomedicine (innovative drugs, CXO, medical devices and diagnostic equipment, etc.), 5) Military industry (missile equipment, military electronic components, space station, space shuttle, etc.).
In addition, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that suggested paying attention to two main lines focusing on stability: steady growth and consumption . Main line 1: steady growth direction. It is expected that the “steady growth” policy will be fully implemented in 2022 and will become one of the core mainlines in the capital market. In recent years, the power of the “steady growth” policy is more to hedge the economic downturn, but it is difficult to make the economy rise again. However, for the capital market, the main line of “steady growth” is still very noteworthy. The growth rate of fixed asset investment rose in the upward range, and the relevant sectors of “steady growth” performed prominently. Among the five upward growth ranges of fixed asset investment since 2010, the sectors with the best overall performance include banking, real estate, building materials, household appliances, construction and other industries that typically benefit from the “steady growth” policy. And in each upward range, the performance of “stable growth” related industries ranks at the forefront. It is suggested to pay attention to traditional infrastructure such as building materials and new infrastructure such as wind power and photovoltaic.
Main line 2: the consumption sector benefiting from the narrowing of the scissors gap of consumption inflation. Historically, there have been three periods in which the inflation scissors have narrowed significantly since 2010, during which the consumer sector has performed well. At the same time, from the perspective of performance, the comparative advantage of the 22-year performance of the consumer sector may be more obvious. From the perspective of valuation, the overall valuation of the consumer sector is still not low, but the relative adjustment range of valuation has been very obvious. The current valuation has certain advantages. Suggestions: 1) high definition Baijiu and medicine. 2) Household appliances and mass consumer goods benefiting from the subsidy policy.
