The year of the tiger is about to open. Many securities companies believe that China's "steady growth" policy has begun to work, the downward pressure on the economy remains, and the recovery rhythm of various industries is divided. 2022 is still a structural opportunity to look for high boom sectors.
institutions expect a rebound in the A-share adjustment period
With the end of the year of the ox, after a wave of adjustment, the expected "spring agitation" market failed to arrive as scheduled. The Shanghai index fell 7.65% in January and the Shenzhen composite index fell 10.29% in January. Among all industries, only banks rose, while other industries fell.
On the whole, since the beginning of the year, the overall performance of the market has been weak, and the positive interest rate increase has failed to promote the market upward as scheduled. The market differentiation is obvious. Under the main line of "stable growth", the financial, infrastructure, real estate and other sectors are more resistant to decline, and the aerospace, medicine, lithium battery, Internet and other sectors have retreated significantly.
In the downward period of the market, institutions are still optimistic about the market after the Spring Festival and look forward to a rebound. Most institutions believe that A-Shares are currently in the process of adjustment, market pessimism is expected to be repaired after the festival, and there is expected to be an "oversold rebound" market.
According to the sorting of securities times · data treasure, the opinions of institutions on the research and judgment of A-Shares after the festival mainly focus on the following aspects:
1. Stable and loose capital
Combined with the cross cycle financing policy of the central bank, Dongguan's Cross cycle investment and net repo policy boosted the stability of the cross cycle financing of RMB 4000 billion, which was effective in promoting the cross cycle financing of the central bank, and reflected the effective reduction of the cross cycle MLF and cross cycle financing of RMB 400 billion.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that there is little overall pressure on the capital in February, and there may be fluctuations in the issuance volume of some government bonds and the timing of tax payment during the month. In the process of continued economic action in 2022, the possibility of another RRR reduction in the first quarter cannot be ruled out.
2. Policy care for "steady growth"
The main line of "steady growth" is still the focus of institutions' attention. Most institutions have some confidence in the introduction of policies to escort "steady growth". Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that in combination with the idea of "effectively shouldering the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy and actively launching monetary and financial policies conducive to economic stability" mentioned by the central bank in the 2022 annual work conference, It means that a series of easing policy operations of the central bank in January is not the end point. Under the goal of stabilizing expectations, confidence and credit, it is still possible to reduce the reserve requirement again in the first quarter.
Bohai Securities believes that without the force of active fiscal policy, "wide currency" is difficult to spontaneously realize "wide credit". The total amount of fiscal expenditure will be strengthened, and the acceleration time point of infrastructure investment will significantly increase the year-on-year growth rate of infrastructure investment by the beginning of 2022. At the same time, it will also significantly increase the year-on-year growth rate of fiscal expenditure.
3. The themes of the two sessions can be arranged in advance
From the situation of the local two sessions, at present, the GDP growth rate of all regions is generally higher than 5.5% except Beijing (more than 5%), and the GDP target growth rate of Hainan, Tibet, Jiangxi and other places is higher than 7%. Many institutions believe that the market before the two sessions is worth looking forward to.
Galaxy Securities said that recently, the two sessions have been held gradually. From the hot words mentioned in the two sessions, 5g, new energy vehicles, home appliances to the countryside, wind power photovoltaic and other words are highly popular, which are mentioned in more than 10 provinces. Reviewing the market performance of the previous 30 days before the two sessions, it is suggested to configure the theme opportunities of the two sessions in advance.
two main lines of investment after the festival
Investment strategy after the Spring Festival, "steady growth" + consumption are still the two main lines favored by major institutions. After the main line of "steady growth" was determined this year, there has been a wave of rising market in relevant real estate and infrastructure sectors, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that if the credit starts well in January and the pessimistic expectation of the economy is repaired, the steady growth sector will gradually enter the cashing period, and the market style is expected to return to high growth. The growth sector with deep decline in the early stage is expected to return to the upward trend.
For the main line of consumption, institutions are optimistic about the valuation repair market of oversold consumer stocks in the early stage. Bohai Securities believes that the consumer sector can obtain significant excess returns due to its defensive attribute and has obvious sustainability.
list of institutional concern stocks released in January
Many securities companies believe that China's "steady growth" policy has begun to work, the downward pressure on the economy remains, and the recovery rhythm of various industries is divided. 2022 is still a structural opportunity to look for high boom sectors.
According to data treasure statistics, 55 shares have received "buy" ratings from more than 10 institutions this year. From the perspective of industries, the stocks concerned by institutions are mainly concentrated in banking, food and beverage and light industry manufacturing industries, which account for more than 30% of the total.
Performance is often one of the key factors that institutions focus on. According to the statistics of data treasure, the performance of 47 institutional concern stocks is expected to increase in 2021; In terms of the median expected increase in net profit, half of them are expected to increase by more than 50%, and the expected net profit of 11 shares is expected to double, including Amlogic (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(688099) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) .
Since the beginning of the year, individual stocks in the A-share market have mainly retreated, and some institutional concern stocks have been relatively resistant to decline. The cumulative increase of 14 stocks is positive, Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) , Shenzhen Jinjia Group Co.Ltd(002191) , Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) rose by more than 10% against the trend.
