The Spring Festival holiday is coming to an end. Looking at the rise and fall of global stock markets, most of the world’s important stock indexes recorded a rise, Hong Kong stocks performed well, and the “good start” after the A-share Festival is worth looking forward to.
Most of the world’s major stock indexes rose during the Spring Festival
According to the statistics of securities times and databao, during the Spring Festival holiday (from January 31 to February 4), most of the world’s important stock indexes recorded gains, while only France’s CAC40 and Germany’s DAX fell slightly. Hong Kong stocks led the world, with the Hang Seng technology index and hang seng index rising 5.48% and 4.34% respectively in the two trading days. Among the key indexes of , finance, industry and Commerce rose by more than 3%; Real estate and public utilities rose by more than 2% and 1% respectively.
In terms of US stocks, the Dow, NASDAQ and S & P 500 fell sharply after rising for three days. Affected by the thunder of meta giant’s performance after hours on Wednesday, the three major indexes of U.S. stocks closed down on Thursday, technology stocks suffered a heavy setback, and the market howled; The U.S. January non farm employment data released on Friday far exceeded market expectations, and the three major stock indexes of U.S. stocks made a more positive response to this. throughout the Spring Festival, the NASDAQ closed up 2.38%, while the Dow and S & P 500 rose more than 1%.
Since 2022, the Hang Seng Index has risen by 5.02% in total, ranking among the top in the world; Although the Hang Seng technology index fell slightly by 1.58%, it still outperformed the three major US stock indexes.
On February 4, when US stocks fell sharply, Hong Kong stocks walked out of the independent market, which may be related to the market’s expectation and liquidity policy of the Federal Reserve’s recent tightening of monetary policy to deal with inflation. on the other hand, the latest rolling P / E ratio of Hang Seng index is only 11.32 times, far lower than the valuation level of more than 23 times of US stocks, which is more attractive for funds.
US interest rate hike in March is expected to rise
reasonable and abundant liquidity of A-Shares after the holiday
according to the data of the U.S. Department of labor, the non farm employment in the United States increased by 467000 in January, far exceeding the market expectation of 150000 and the previous level of 190000. affected by the unexpectedly strong non-agricultural employment data, the yield of 10-year Treasury bonds exceeded 1.9% to 1.93%, the highest level since December 2019. At the same time, the U.S. Department of labor revised the past data. In December 2021, the non-agricultural employment was revised from 199000 to 510000, and in November from 249000 to 647000, with a total increase of 709000. After the adjustment, the number of non farm workers increased by 665000 in the whole year, the largest in the history of the United States.
The US non farm payrolls data in January exceeded expectations and broke market concerns, but the rise in wages also further confirmed China’s inflationary pressure, which is bound to have an impact on the Fed’s monetary policy. Lawrence Summers, a former US Treasury Secretary, said the market needs to prepare for the possibility that the Fed will raise interest rates at each of the remaining seven meetings of the year, even more than 25 basis points at a time. the Bank of America predicts that the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate hikes at all meetings this year.
Compared with the US market, the A-share market will usher in a capital environment with reasonable and abundant liquidity after the festival. Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the central bank invested a large amount of cross Festival funds in the market before the festival, started the cross spring festival liquidity arrangement, and had a clear attitude to protect the stability of funds . After the holiday, the liquidity gap will be significantly improved, and the monetary policy is still in a loose cycle. Therefore, the capital level may be tightened at some time points such as tax payment and government bond payment in February, but it will not change the overall downward trend of interest rate.
Analysts pointed out that although the central bank’s reverse repurchase funds will be recovered after the holiday, a large amount of cash withdrawal will significantly increase the total liquidity of the banking system; In addition, the maturity of treasury bonds in the first week after the festival is large, which will also increase certain liquidity. the overall liquidity supply is relatively large, and the market capital will be more relaxed . At the same time, the countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy continues to move forward, and the development of the real economy will usher in a more friendly financing environment.
list of stagflation stocks
According to the viewpoint of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) , the opportunities of A-Shares are expected to outweigh the risks in 2022. 2022 is the “afterwave” period after the great impact of the epidemic, and the growth and policy cycle at home and abroad are reversed again. Although there is still a lot of uncertainty and the market path may still have twists and turns, China’s policies are loosening, growth is gradually improving, the overall market valuation is not high, and the market environment is gradually favorable. The focus is to grasp phased and structural opportunities according to the changes of the main contradictions in the market.
Databao screened listed companies according to the following three conditions and counted the list of A-share stagflation shares for readers.
1. The latest rolling P / E ratio is less than 20 times;
2. The median value of the growth range of 2021 annual performance express / forecast is higher than 100%, and the annual net profit is higher than 2 billion yuan;
3. From the third quarter of 2021 to now, the cumulative decline and the maximum increase is less than 10%.
According to the statistics of data treasure, a total of 28 shares were selected. Among them, 13 stocks in the chemical industry were listed, accounting for nearly half of all stagflation stocks. The stocks with the highest annual net profit growth are Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , 1223.35%; Four stocks, including Bengang Steel Plates Co.Ltd(000761) , Shanghai Huayi Group Corporation Limited(600623) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , followed, with an increase of 500% – 650%.
There are four stagnant 100 billion market value stocks, namely China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation(600028) , Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) . Excluding Hoshine Silicon Industry Co.Ltd(603260) , the annual net profit of the other three shares exceeded 10 billion, and the net profit of China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) also exceeded 10 billion.
In terms of institutional attention, 11 shares have recently been rated by more than 10 institutions. Among them, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) won the top three, with 32, 29 and 29 agencies participating in the company’s rating respectively, and there are 20 or more Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) rating agencies.
