On the second day of the lunar new year, at the door of a community in Tongzhou District, Beijing, the reporter met Xiao Yang, an agent from a second-hand housing intermediary store.
Xiao Yang told the reporter, "I remember you said there was a two bedroom house you wanted to sell, but you were not satisfied with the price at that time. Before the Spring Festival, several sets of two bedroom houses in our community were sold, and the price also increased slightly. Now there is no source of two bedroom houses in the whole community. If you hang up the Internet at this time, you will be able to sell them soon."
A similar scene has not been staged for a long time. According to the observation of the reporter of Securities Daily, since the second half of 2021, the second-hand housing market in Beijing has entered a trough again, and some brokers have "no orders to open" for several months. At that time, brokers were busy soliciting customers; Now, it is to take the initiative to find houses.
Recently, after a field visit to Fengtai District, Chaoyang District and other communities, the reporter of Securities Daily learned that there were signs of recovery in volume and price transactions in Beijing's second-hand housing market, and there was a shortage of hot listings in some communities. As a senior manager of Beijing chain home told the Securities Daily, "at present, the main characteristics of Beijing's second-hand housing market are less houses, more customers and a recovery in trading volume, but the overall situation is relatively stable."
few new listings
buyers have few choices
"I saw several Suites before the Spring Festival, but they were not ideal. Either the promising community didn't come up with the house type I wanted, or it was bought in full by competitors." Li Jing (pseudonym) said that one of the houses on the intermediary platform is not cost-effective and can not be sold for a long time; One is that the owner is eager to change the house and can negotiate the price, but such houses will give priority to the buyer who pays the full payment.
"The supply of houses in short supply is closely watched. I like the two bedroom apartment type of a community outside the West Fourth Ring Road. There are dozens of two apartments on sale from August to November, and it has been reduced to about 10 before the Spring Festival, which greatly reduces the optional space." Li Jing told reporters that before the Spring Festival, a broker said that 10 suites were sold in this community all at once before the Spring Festival, so now there are few two bedroom houses. The average price of south facing houses has also risen to 73000 yuan - 75000 yuan / square meter, and the price has increased slightly.
"Now the space for bargaining with the owner has become smaller. It is possible to cut 200000 yuan or even 300000 yuan for a house before, but now it is very difficult. This change occurred in December 2021. By January 2022, many of the original houses that meet the needs of house exchange or school district housing will be sold faster, and the new houses will not keep up." Li Jing said that although it still seems to be a buyer's market, buyers obviously have less selectivity. According to the intermediary, now some owners are waiting for the possible "little sunny spring" after the Spring Festival, so they have to wait for the price rise after the Spring Festival.
According to the data released by the Beijing housing and Urban Rural Development Commission, from June to October 2021, the number of online contracts for stock houses in Beijing declined all the way. The report released by the shell Research Institute also shows that the shortage of customers is the biggest problem encountered in the development of broker business. Under the regulation policy last year, "no customers" and "no show" accounted for 75% and 58.7% respectively. But now it seems that brokers have changed from simply busy looking for customers to actively looking for houses.
"From the supply side, the number of new listings of second-hand houses in Beijing is relatively small, and the average daily listing number since January has decreased compared with the average daily level in December. It is expected that it may be affected by the epidemic, because the entrustment procedures of 'three certificates and two letters' required for listing of second-hand houses need to be completed offline." Xu Xiaole, chief market analyst of Shell Research Institute, told the Securities Daily that at present, there is a structural imbalance between supply and demand in Beijing's second-hand housing market, that is, the recovery of demand is faster than supply. It is expected that the epidemic will ease after the Spring Festival and the number of listings will increase.
increase in viewing volume
buyers speed up their sales
After the acceleration of housing loan lending, the transaction pattern of Beijing's second-hand housing market has changed. The demand for changing rooms has led to a sharp increase in viewing volume and a significant shortening of the transaction cycle.
"Before the Spring Festival, the amount of band watching rises sharply." A broker told the reporter of Securities Daily that taking Wangjing garden as an example, the district is selling more than 40 houses, 5 of which have been sold in recent 90 days, and 2 of which have been carried for up to 289 times in recent 30 days.
"The sharp rise in the volume of tape viewing has brought a pick-up in trading volume." The broker said that the market pattern of zero transaction in the previous three or four months has changed, and the secondary new houses in some hot selling communities in Wangjing are sold faster. The main reason is that the housing loan issuance cycle has changed from the previous possible queue of three months to less than one month, and even some commercial loans can be completed within half a month. In addition, price factors are also leading to changes in market expectations.
"Judging from the current market situation, there are still great differences in the quotation of owners. For example, some owners are willing to directly reduce 200000 yuan to quickly promote the transaction, but some owners have always insisted on high quotation and are not in a hurry to sell their houses. They even haven't done a transaction for more than a year." According to the above-mentioned person, generally speaking, it is possible for the transaction unit price of some residential areas to rise by nearly 2000 yuan at a higher point per square meter. Of course, some housing owners still can't sell their houses at a lower price.
"Since January 2022, the trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing has maintained a restorative growth. From January 1 to 23, the daily average trading volume of second-hand houses in Beijing Lianjia increased by about 5% compared with the daily average level in December last year." Xu Xiaole said that in addition, the owners' expectations have improved, and the proportion of price reduction has decreased. In December last year, the prosperity index of second-hand housing in Beijing stopped declining and has maintained a steady recovery since January.
In Xu Xiaole's view, looking at the long cycle, the current market transaction has basically returned to the normal level in recent years. The main reason is that the credit environment has improved since the fourth quarter of last year. In January, the lending cycle of banks in Beijing was shortened by 12 days compared with the previous month, which basically returned to normal. With the decline of LPR over five years, the housing loan interest rate in Beijing also decreased accordingly. These factors have driven the recent restorative increase in the trading volume of second-hand houses.
"On the one hand, due to the favorable credit environment and abundant mortgage lines of major banks, some of the overstocked house purchase demand due to the shortage of early-stage loans has gradually entered the market; on the other hand, under the strict policy regulation, the second-hand house prices in Beijing are relatively stable, there is no sharp rise or fall, and the house buyers dare to sell." Liang Nan, an analyst at Zhuge housing search data research center, told the Securities Daily that on the whole, due to the appropriate adjustment of policies at the financial level, the market wait-and-see mood has improved, the trading volume has increased significantly, some owners' expectations of the market have changed, the willingness to sell at reduced prices will be weakened, and the proportion of houses with increased prices will rise.
According to the statistics of Zhuge house search, in December 2021, the price increase accounted for 11.9% of the price adjustment of second-hand houses in Beijing, an increase of 4 percentage points over the previous month.
However, Liang Nan also stressed that from the current listing volume, Beijing's second-hand housing is still a buyer's market, but some high-quality houses are still relatively popular, and the bargaining space is not large. At the same time, Liang Nan also pointed out that after the Spring Festival, with the arrival of the education real estate season and the xiaoyangchun of the property market, it is expected that Beijing or the current second-hand housing transaction will be xiaoyangchun, but on the whole, the main tone of "housing without speculation" will not change, the overheating of the property market will not appear, and the second-hand housing market in Beijing will stabilize.
