Gold stocks of securities companies have gradually become the monthly strategic wind vane of securities companies.
However, affected by the market environment, the gold stocks of securities companies were almost “wiped out” in January, and no portfolio achieved positive returns. The best performing Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) gold stock portfolio fell 3% in January, while Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) and Huachuang securities took the second place and Tanghua. The gold stock portfolio of only four securities companies outperformed the Shanghai stock index in January, and about 28 securities companies outperformed the gem index.
Despite the decline in earnings in January, gold stocks of securities companies are still a good investment reference. According to the recent research of China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) , the gold stocks of securities companies will be valued by the buyer’s institutions for a period of time and become the heavy positions of some funds.
Looking at the strategic outlook in the gold stock report of various securities companies in February, most securities companies believe that after the substantial adjustment of the market at the beginning of the year, structural opportunities begin to appear. In terms of sectors, sectors benefiting from “steady growth” policies such as infrastructure have been generally favored by securities companies. Among the gold stocks in February, big finance, Dianxin, electronics, food and beverage, transportation, machinery and other sectors were favored.
the gold stock income of securities companies was almost wiped out in January
Recently, the data of gold stock income of securities companies in January 2022 have been released one after another. According to the data of each city (Meishi Technology), affected by the market, the gold stocks of securities companies were almost “wiped out” in January, and none of them achieved positive returns. The best performance is Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) gold stock portfolio, which achieved – 3.01% in January, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) ranked second with a yield of – 5.36%, and Huachuang securities ranked third with a monthly yield of – 7.32%.
In addition to Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) , Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) and Huachuang securities, the gold stock portfolio with outstanding performance in January also included Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) , Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) , Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) , Guosheng securities, Ping An Securities, Galaxy Securities, YueKai securities, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) and so on, with a decrease of less than 9%.
In January this year, the market fluctuated downward. In that month, the Shanghai stock index fell 7.65%, the gem index fell 12.45%, and the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index fell 7.62%. From the perspective of securities companies’ gold stock portfolio income, the gold stock portfolio of four securities companies outperformed the Shanghai stock index and Shanghai Shenzhen 300 index in January, and 28 securities companies outperformed the gem index.
From the perspective of individual stocks, according to the data of each city (Meishi Technology), a total of 350 targets were recommended by 49 brokerage research institutes in January (the cumulative number before weight removal was 500 targets). As of the closing on January 28, the average increase of these 350 gold stock targets was – 11.54%. A total of 47 gold stocks achieved positive returns, accounting for about 13.4%, of which 12 gold stocks increased by more than 10%.
Among them, Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co.Ltd(603208) recommended by Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) increased by 26.47% in January, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) recommended by securities Longyan Zhuoyue New Energy Co.Ltd(688196) increased by 23.52% in January, and China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) recommended Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) increased by 21.40%. Among the gold stocks of securities companies in January, the three worst performing stocks were Mango Excellent Media Co.Ltd(300413) (down 39.25% in January), Baoji Titanium Industry Co.Ltd(600456) (down 36.17% in January) and BiliBili SW (down 32.29% in January).
Among the popular gold stocks in January, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) jointly recommended by 13 securities companies fell by 7.95% in January, and Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) , China stock market news and Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) jointly recommended by 5 ~ 6 securities companies fell by more than 14% in January, while satellite chemistry jointly recommended by 6 securities companies rose by 4.92%.
Although the gold stock income of securities companies in January seems not very bright, many securities companies have conducted systematic research on the gold stock of securities companies recently and found that the gold stock portfolio still has strong reference significance for investment.
According to the research report recently launched by the metalworking team, the securities companies’ gold stocks recommended by the seller will attract the attention of the buyer’s institutions for a period of time and become the heavy positions of some funds. The stocks that appear in the gold stock portfolio for the first time in the past year are more likely to become heavy positions of the fund in the next fund periodic reporting period.
Yu Mingming, chief of Cinda securities metalworking, said in a research report recently that at present, 300 gold stock targets are recommended every month, of which the proportion of exclusively recommended gold stocks in each gold stock pool reaches about 70%, and the proportion of gold stocks recommended by three or more is less than 15%, indicating that the research homogeneity of securities companies’ gold stocks is not high.
Can the securities companies that mined bull stocks in the previous stage continue to show the ability to obtain excess returns in the future? Xinda securities research found that with the continuous improvement of the gold stock recommendation mechanism and the increasing attention of securities companies to the gold stock portfolio, the performance of stock recommendation in the previous stage showed a weak positive correlation with the return of securities companies’ gold stock portfolio this month, and “good securities companies push good stocks” has a certain law to follow.
gold stocks released in February
As of October, more than 2 securities companies have released their portfolios. From the perspective of industry distribution, individual stocks in big finance, Dianxin, electronics, food and beverage, transportation, machinery and other sectors are very popular.
From the subject matter jointly recommended by many securities companies, Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) has been recommended by many securities companies, such as Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , Galaxy Securities, Guolian Securities Co.Ltd(601456) , Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) , Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) ; Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) was jointly selected as gold stock in February by Kaiyuan securities, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) , Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) ; Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) is favored by Minsheng securities, Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) , Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) . In addition, Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) , Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) , Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) and other stocks have also been recommended by two or more securities companies.
The financial sector was also popular in February. Among the securities companies, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) and other stocks were listed as gold stocks by securities companies; Among bank stocks, Industrial Bank Co.Ltd(601166) is listed as gold stock by no less than three securities companies, and Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Jiangsu Suzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(603323) , Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) , Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) are also recommended by different securities companies.
Securities companies also pay attention to opportunities in transportation related sectors. For example, Galaxy Securities recommends Eastern Air Logistics Co.Ltd(601156) , Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) recommends Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , and Ping An Securities recommends China Southern Airlines Company Limited(600029) .
It is worth mentioning that many Hong Kong stock technology targets appeared in the gold stock pool of securities companies in February. For example, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) recommended meituan-w, Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) recommended Baidu group, Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) recommended netease-s, Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) recommended Mingyuan cloud.
how do securities companies view the future market?
Looking at the strategic outlook of various securities companies in the gold stock report in February, most securities companies believe that after the substantial adjustment of the market at the beginning of the year, structural opportunities begin to appear.
In terms of sectors, the sectors benefiting from “steady growth” policies such as infrastructure have been generally favored by securities companies.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) Securities believes that the oversold rebound is worth looking forward to, and the continuous recovery needs patience. In terms of allocation suggestions, the “steady growth” sector is expected to continue to contribute to relative returns. Focus on three main lines: (1) there are still opportunities for infrastructure and real estate industry chain. (2) The high prosperity track is resilient and continues to be equipped with bottom warehouse: green electricity and new energy vehicles. (3) high-end consumption is not pessimistic, concerned about baijiu.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) believes that in February 2022, after the sharp market fluctuations at the beginning of the year, structural opportunities began to emerge. On the one hand, referring to the historical experience of the deviation stage of China US monetary policy in history, in the early stage of the deviation, it is often loose monetary policy that drives the rise of a shares. At present, the price of A-Shares has not fully reflected China’s loose policy; On the other hand, with the rapid decline of some popular track sectors, the valuation pressure has been released. At the level of industry configuration, there may be opportunities for rotational performance in the fields of traditional and new infrastructure, the subject of early popular track fields with reasonable valuation after the decline at the beginning of the year, and science and Technology (digital economy, meta universe, etc.).
Ping An Securities believes that the market environment tends to be complex and is still dominated by shocks in the short term. At present, the market has not reached a consensus on structural opportunities, and the sector rotation will continue. It is suggested to pay attention to the direction and landing effect of the follow-up steady growth policy, as well as the possibility of improving the prosperity of the post epidemic recovery sector; Focus on new trading opportunities in the growth sector in the medium and long term, including some segments of emerging industries such as digital economy, high-end manufacturing and new energy.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that the recent market weakness is mainly due to the demand for stable growth, but the policy implementation is slower than expected, and the pessimistic economic expectation has not been repaired. Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) expressed clear optimism for the whole year. The logical deduction of steady growth needs data support, and credit is the key to a good start. If the credit starts well in January, the market style is expected to return to growth. On the contrary, the stable growth sector may continue. If the credit starts well in January, the growth sector with deep decline in the early stage is expected to return to the upward trend, focusing on: dual carbon (lithium battery, power grid, intelligent driving), digital economy (Internet, semiconductor, cloud computing, metauniverse).
Galaxy Securities believes that at present, the correction of A-Shares driven by external risks has released certain risks, and the valuation of A-Shares has also fallen to a lower position. In the future, the spring market driven by steady growth may gradually open after the investor sentiment stabilizes and some track risks are gradually released. There are two main lines in the industry configuration: 1) subjects benefiting from the two sessions, such as digital economy, new energy, etc; 2) Sectors benefiting from steady growth policies, such as building materials, machinery, etc.
Minsheng Securities believes that after the falsification of the “cross year market”, the opportunity should be paid attention to. After the gradual release of market trading risks, the market is expected to usher in a phased rebound. From the perspective of rebound strategy alone: according to historical experience, the stocks with poor performance in the anti decline industries and the industries with the largest decline since January should be arranged. From the medium-term perspective, we still need to return to the core main line and the supply constraints in the process of demand recovery. The elasticity of inflation is stronger than the demand itself and the change of pricing logic behind it. Investors still need to look beyond consensus. Investors should pay attention to credit recovery, inflation elasticity and value return. Recommendations: nonferrous metals (copper, aluminum, gold), banking, coal, real estate, steel and crude oil (oil and gas exploitation, oil transportation), power grid construction and power. On the theme, Rural Revitalization (digital government, county consumption) is recommended.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the market pessimism is expected to repair, and the spring market is still worth looking forward to. Historically, the “spring agitation” market appears almost every year and is rarely absent, but its occurrence time is different. In some years, there are noteworthy markets after late January. The logic of this spring’s market is still tenable. In the future, demand side policies and financial data may be the focus of attention. In terms of allocation, it is suggested to focus on two main lines of stability – steady growth and consumption.
Western Securities Co.Ltd(002673) believes that the low point of the market in the first half of the year may have appeared. At the current point, investors can gradually turn optimistic about the market and actively layout the market in the first half of the year. It is suggested that investors grasp four main lines from the structure: 1. With the gradual realization of the annual report performance, the growth sector is expected to become the phased main line of the market after the Spring Festival; 2. Securities companies benefiting from the recovery of transactions and the comprehensive registration system; 3. Offline economy represented by catering tourism and commercial retail; 4 essential consumer goods benefiting from price transmission from PPI to CPI, especially the agricultural sector.
Zheshang Securities Co.Ltd(601878) believes that at the index level, February is in the shock window period as a whole. On the one hand, in terms of corporate profits, under the background of macroeconomic slowdown, the overall profits in 2022 are facing a slowdown; On the other hand, the Fed has gradually started the cycle of raising interest rates, and may raise interest rates for the first time in March. Combined with the resumption of trading, the initial stage of raising interest rates often brings periodic disturbance to the trend of equity. At the structural level, in February, attention was paid to the steady growth and travel chain of undervalued value, and the growth sector represented by digital economy was dominated by individual stock opportunities.
