During the long Spring Festival holiday, most overseas stock markets rose, and both US and Hong Kong stocks strengthened. However, the monetary policy in Europe and the United States has been marginal reversal, and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March is heating up. Looking forward to the A shares after the festival, insiders generally believe that the market will have a good start.
During the Spring Festival (from January 28 to February 4), Asian stock markets led the gains, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index and Nikkei 225 index rising 4.34% and 2.7% respectively; Standard & Poor's, NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose 1.55%, 2.38% and 1.05% respectively; European stock markets performed mediocrely, with Germany's DAX index and France's CAC40 index falling 1.43% and 0.21% respectively, while Britain's FTSE 100 index rose 0.67%. In addition, FTSE A50 futures rose nearly 2% during the long holiday.
From the perspective of industries, Hong Kong stocks and US stocks are generally rising during the Spring Festival. From the perspective of leading industries, optional consumption and information technology led the rise, and the optional consumption of Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng technology index both rose by more than 5%.
In terms of commodity futures, energy performed prominently, and industrial metals also performed well. Copper, rebar, platinum, gold, aluminum and silver rose by 3.99%, 2.27%, 1.75%, 1.19%, 0.88% and 0.78% respectively. International oil prices rose for seven consecutive weeks, hitting a new high in nearly seven years. Brent crude oil and New York crude oil both stood at $90 / barrel.
In terms of bond and foreign exchange markets, US bond yields rose to above 1.9%, eurozone bond yields also rose sharply, and the US dollar index fell sharply. The US dollar index fell sharply by 1.8%, and the RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly.
There are obvious signs of tightening monetary policy in Europe and the United States. The European Central Bank issued a statement at the interest rate meeting in February, maintaining the three major policy interest rates unchanged. In the first quarter, it will slow down the emergency anti epidemic bond purchase plan and end the net bond purchase by the end of March. In the second quarter, it will slow down the amount of bond purchase under the asset purchase plan. The Bank of England announced that it would raise the benchmark interest rate by another 25bp to 0.5%, stop reinvesting in maturing assets and reduce the purchase of UK government bonds and non-financial investment grade corporate bonds. Us non farm employment in January was much higher than expected, triggering a rise in the market's expectation of the Fed raising interest rates by 50 basis points in March.
Looking forward to the A shares after the festival, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) chief strategic analyst Zhang Qiyao said, "During the Spring Festival holiday, the overseas market performed well as a whole. The market gradually digested the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates, and the risk appetite rebounded as a whole. The China concept Internet sector performed strongly, and Hong Kong stocks also made a good start in the year of the tiger, which strengthened significantly under the leadership of the technology sector. For a shares, the pre holiday market has made a sharp correction, and the risk sentiment has been basically fully released, superimposing the pressure of the peripheral markets The strong performance is expected to boost the risk appetite of Chinese investors after the festival, and A-Shares are also expected to have a good start. "
Yang Delong, chief economist of Qianhai Kaiyuan, told reporters, "The rise of peripheral markets during the festival has laid the foundation for a shares, and there is a high probability that A-Shares will make a good start. In the medium term, the A-share market is expected to launch a spring offensive. Some negative factors worried by investors before the festival, such as the decline of economic growth, the increase of interest rates by the Federal Reserve and the outbreak of the global epidemic, have actually been reflected in the decline of the market in advance to a certain extent , this also created conditions for the counterattack of A-Shares after the festival. A shares in the year of the tiger can focus on large consumer industries and leading new energy stocks, while Hong Kong stocks focus on the Internet. "
In terms of news, China's official manufacturing PMI in January was 50.1, down 0.2 percentage points month on month, higher than the critical point, and the pace of manufacturing expansion slowed down. The national development and Reform Commission said that it pays close attention to the price changes of coal and iron ore, and will further strengthen market price regulation and supervision with relevant departments, severely crack down on illegal price behaviors in the spot and futures markets, and ensure that the prices of coal and iron ore operate within a reasonable range.
In addition, the information disclosed by the world's No. 1 hedge fund Jinqiao water fund shows that the total assets of its overseas issued Chinese funds have exceeded 34 billion yuan, and the company is further overweight its RMB assets.
