The stock market in the year of the tiger will officially start tomorrow. Will it be the market that welcomes investors? Securities Times · data treasure takes you to see through the rising probability of stocks in the year of the tiger.
after the Spring Festival, the market of A-Shares mostly suppresses first and then rises
Looking back on the performance of the A-share market after the Spring Festival in recent ten years, we can find that the market has a high probability of rising in a few trading days after the festival. According to the statistics of securities times · databao, in the past ten years (2012-2021), the Shanghai stock index rose only four times on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, in 2014, 2018, 2019 and 2021 respectively, with an increase probability of only 40% and an average increase rate of 1.16%.
However, after the first trading day, the market performance was gradually strong. According to the data, in the past decade, the Shanghai stock index rose as many as 7 times in the five trading days after the Spring Festival, with a rise probability of 70% and an average rise of 1.83%. fell by 4.86% in 2013, 3.38% in 2020 and 2.49% in 2021. The rising probability of 10 trading days and 20 trading days after the festival was 70%, and the average increase was expanded to 2.79% and 5.73% respectively.
According to the Shenzhen composite index, the rising probability on the first day after the festival is only 30%, and the rising probability on the next 5 days, 10 days and 20 days rises to 50%, 60% and 60% respectively. Gem refers to the relatively good performance after the festival. The rising probability on the first day after the festival reaches 60%, and the rising probability on the next 5 and 10 days reaches 80%.
It is noteworthy that the time interval is stretched forward. According to the data of the past 20 years, Shanghai Composite Index has a 75% probability of rising in February, which is significantly higher than that in other months.
Comprehensive data show that the probability of A-share market first restraining and then rising after the Spring Festival in recent ten years is very high.
14 annual growth undervalued stocks
outperformed the market after the festival for ten consecutive years
According to the statistics of data treasure, from the performance of individual stocks in the five trading days after the Spring Festival in recent ten years, 183 stocks have outperformed the market for ten consecutive years. Among them, public utilities, medicine, biology and chemical industries made the greatest contribution, with 21, 19 and 18 stocks listed respectively. The number of individual shares contributed by computer, mechanical equipment, electronics, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and media industries is more than 10. The average outperformance of Cecep Environmental Protection Equipment Co.Ltd(300140) , Tianjin Capital Environmental Protection Group Company Limited(600874) , Goldlok Holdings(Guangdong) Co.Ltd(002348) , Cnlight Co.Ltd(002076) , Xinlun New Materials Co.Ltd(002341) exceeded 10%.
It is noteworthy that 14 shares in the list belong to the stocks with excellent performance and low valuation in the 2021 annual report. Among them, Guofeng new material outperformed the market by an average of 9.13% in recent ten years. It is expected to achieve a net profit of 280 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 144% and a P / E ratio of less than 20 times. In addition, the P / E ratios of Beijing Capital Eco-Environment Protection Group Co.Ltd(600008) , Xinjiang Zhongtai Chenical Co.Ltd(002092) , Shenma Industry Co.Ltd(600810) are less than 10 times.
pivoting star sector of each month
In addition to the market after the festival, what will be the market rate of each month in the year of the tiger?
According to the statistics of data treasure, based on the monthly rise and fall of the market index in recent 20 years, it is found that the rise probability in February is the highest, reaching 75%; The second is November, with an increase probability of 60%.
According to the monthly rise and fall data of Shenwan 31 industries in the past 10 years, among the months with the highest rise probability of the market in February, textile and clothing, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery have reached 90%, and the average increase in February in the past 10 years is 4.58% and 5.21% respectively.
According to the statistics of data treasure, in the months with a rise probability of more than 50% in January and July December, most of the sectors with the highest rise probability are building materials, household appliances, chemical industry, food and beverage and other pro cyclical sectors.
Approaching holidays and shopping Carnival week, it is usually accompanied by the consumer stock market dominated by “drinking and taking medicine”. From the data of recent ten years, from October to December, the average rise probability of food and beverage, household appliances, medicine and biology index ranks first due to the catalysis of national day, double 11, double 12 Shopping Festival and Christmas.
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Figure 1 understand the global market performance during the long holiday. Will A-Shares welcome the warm sun after the festival?
